Altucher vs Sykes: Day Trading Debate

Commentary: Day trading is popular again, and as controversial as ever.

With the huge volatility in the stock market during the last year, day traders are back. Or maybe they never left.

In the 1990s, day trading was all the rage, especially using risky strategies like scalping, where you’re in and out of hundreds of stocks in seconds or minutes, aiming to make small but quick profits. Scalping was profitable until decimalization, and the 2000 crash, when many once successful traders got wiped out.

A few years later, people switched to day trading houses. That lasted until the 2008 housing crash, when many once successful homebuyers got wiped out.

More recently, high frequency traders (HFT), the ultimate day traders, use high-speed computers to scalp for pennies in nanoseconds, which adds up to billions of dollars in profits every year.

Although retail traders can’t compete with these million dollar computers, many lone day traders have returned to the stock market.

Eight reasons not to day trade

Nevertheless, the controversy over day trading strategies hasn’t stopped. Last year, two successful traders, James Altucher and Timothy Sykes, had a blogging war over the benefits and risks of day trading. Dozens of comments from readers appeared on their blogs, attacking and defending.

Altucher threw the first punch in a blog he wrote, “8 Reasons Not to Day Trade.” Link to article here: http://bit.ly/h028VG

Here are a few snippets:

“Everyone wants to be a day trader. Let me tell you the best days. You get in at 9:25 a.m. You make the trade your system tells you to make at 9:30 a.m. And by 9:45 a.m., the trade is done, profitable, and you’re done for the day: $1,800 richer and happy about it…but it’s all a lie to yourself…” In the long run, Altucher says he has none of the qualities of a succ essful day trader. “And neither do you,” he concludes.

Here are the eight reasons why Altucher says you shouldn’t day trade:

1. Suicide  2. You’ll overeat  3. Your eyes go bad  4. Social life  5. Blood pressure 6. Nothing productive  7. No career  8. It’s impossible

Twenty-four reasons to day trade

After Altucher’s blog was published, successful day trader Sykes immediately responded with an article, “24 Reasons to Day Trade.”  Link to article here: http://bit.ly/9n1C1h

Here are a few snippets from his blog:

“When I read James Altucher’s article, I couldn’t help but feel anger, and within a few hours of reading it, I experienced many of the symptoms he described, although in a slightly different context…I rubbed my eyes to see if his post was even real, somehow thinking it was impossible that he could write such blasphemy…”

According to Sykes, day trading is thrilling, exciting, mentally challenging, and educational. “Day traders talk faster, think faster, and do things faster. We get more out of life because day trading is a fast-paced job.”

He admits that day trading can be unhealthy, so he suggests hiring a personal trainer to lose weight. And yes, he says, your eyes can go bad, so get a glare protector for your computer. In addition, if your blood pressure is rising, it’s a clue to Sykes the trade is bad. He uses his body as an early biological warning system.

The cure for most trading losses, Sykes suggests, is cutting losses quickly. Learning how to cut losses can also help you in life, real estate, and relationships. Another way to survive the day trading battlefield is to enter a trade with nothing less than a 3:1 risk reward ratio.

It’s easier than ever to be a day trader because of technology, he claims, and you don’t have to be a genius. Ironically, he says he is terrible at math. Sykes says if you’re willing to aim for less profit, you can make a good living as a part-time day trader.

Finally, Sykes suggests that if you’re part of the magical 10% that succeed at day trading, the freedom it provides is worth the effort. And even if you are socially incompetent, he claims, money makes up for it.

The modern day trader

Hopefully, people have learned from past mistakes — when unknowledgeable traders quit their jobs and cleared out their 401(k)’s to day trade. Many modern day traders trade less frequently and are choosier about the trades they make. Although day trading is not for everyone and is still controversial, it can be a viable strategy during certain market conditions.

But don’t dare start day trading without first understanding all of the risks. The first question you should ask yourself before making that first day trade: “What’s the worst that can happen after I place this order?”

The Day Trader

 

3 ways to trade stocks in a volatile market

MIAMI, Fla. (MarketWatch) — Trading in advance of the end of QE2 is like playing poker with Ben Bernanke. At the moment, at least, the Fed isn’t revealing its hand. Accordingly, traders should brace for more volatility as June 30 approaches, given the state of confusion many market participants are in.

As a trader, you should always look for profitable opportunities based on probabilities and your own judgment. Here are three strategies to consider using whenever a market-changing event is looming:

1. Stay on the sidelines

If you’re new to the stock market, you may want to stay safely on the sidelines when QE2 ends.

After repeatedly entering the market too soon and getting burned, legendary trader Jesse Livermore gave this advice: “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!”

This could be one of those times to sit tight, at least until the market’s direction is clearer.

2. Fade the gap

Erik Swarts, an independent trader and creator of the research site Market Anthropology, has been actively shorting the market, “and it’s been exceptional,” he said.

Specifically, he has been “trading the gap,” or shorting the market after it gaps up in the first few minutes following the open. “Although I’m skeptical of the market, I’m reluctant to get dogmatic on the bear side,” Swarts noted.

Yet this strategy is not for beginners. “If I was inexperienced with this kind of market, I’d probably stay away and paper trade it,” Swarts said. “There are too many cross-currents to navigate for the novice trader.”

3. Use the options market

Buy puts: You can turn to the options market for protection or profit. For protection, buy protective puts on stocks you already own. If you want to speculate, buy puts on individual stocks or indexes. Although buying puts is less risky than shorting, it’s still possible to lose your entire investment if you get the timing and direction wrong.

Another option is to initiate what’s known as a “straddle” — though unlike protective puts a straddle is not typically a trade for rookies. Still, it’s good to understand this options strategy, which many experienced traders use.

Straddles come into play if you expect the market to move aggressively in one direction or another, as has been the case over a couple of trading days this week.

“If you buy a straddle,” said Joe Harwood, manager of Investor Services at the Options Industry Council (OIC), you pay two premiums, one for a call and one for a put.”

Be aware that if the underlying stock doesn’t move far enough in either direction, you may not realize a profit. “What can happen is sometimes referred to as a volatility collapse,” Harwood said, which occurs when pumped up implied volatility falls back to normal levels.

Consult your broker before initiating any options strategy. You can also learn more about options at the OIC web site:www.optionseducation.org .

Trading post-QE2

What should investors do now? If you are long-term oriented, you may want to listen to Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist of The Economic Outlook Group and author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators (Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007). He’s had an excellent market forecasting track record.

The stock market’s situation now, he said, “reminds me of someone trying to swim in peanut butter. You get the feeling there is an inflection point coming, but you aren’t sure how much weaker the economy will be. But you get the feeling that something is in the midst of changing.”

Once QE2 ends, “don’t panic,” Baumohl said. “But after June, you must watch the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statements very carefully for a hint of what the Fed might do next.”

Even with the market’s current weakness fueling pessimism, Baumohl said he believes the major U.S. stock indices will be higher at year-end.

“Based on our economic outlook and geopolitical assessment,” he said, “we still expect the Dow to be up around 10%, the S&P to gain 12%, the Nasdaq 6%, and the Russell 2000 up 8%.”

All bets are off if upheaval in the Middle East spirals out of control, Baumohl said. “The probability this will occur before the end of the year is still a high 40% to 45%, so it can’t be dismissed altogether.”

(To read my entire interview with Bernard Baumohl, including his market forecasts and where you should invest now, click on this link: http://bit.ly/jjyKJU)

The lesson for traders — rookies and veterans alike — is always be prepared. QE2 is going to create a big wake once it docks. If you use any of the above trading strategies, cut back on share size. Given the likelihood that the market becomes even more volatile this summer, this is not the time to take unnecessary risks.

Michael Sincere is the author of Start Day Trading Now (Adams Media, 2011), All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill, 2010), and Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2003).

Before QE2 Ends: What Investors Should Do Now

To get a clearer idea of where the economy is headed, I spoke with Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist of The Economic Outlook Group and author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators (Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007). He’s had an excellent long-term record of making stock market forecasts.

2011: A good start with an uncertain ending

“It does appear that QE2 will end and that it will not be followed by QE3,” Baumohl said, “at least for the time being. A lot depends on what happens to the economy in the second half. We came into 2011 with lots of momentum. Earnings expectations were getting stronger and the stock market did quite well.”

In fact, Baumohl had correctly forecast a strong year for all the major indexes. “But as you know, midway through the first quarter, we began to experience a variety of geopolitical shocks as well as natural disasters,” he explains. “Ordinarily, geopolitical shocks have a minimal impact on the financial markets, and are short-term at best. But the geopolitical shocks we have now, and continue to have, are on a scale and magnitude that we have not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

The new norm: a higher cost of living

Baumohl says that investors should be prepared to live in an era that will be defined by geopolitical instability, primarily because of the turmoil in the Middle East. “What this means is the price of oil will likely remain elevated for quite some time. The new normal may mean a price of $90 to $130 a barrel, which will obviously keep gasoline prices higher than normal as well.”

Baumohl explains that because we have little or no control over events taking place outside of the U.S., many Americans will have to adjust to a higher cost of living. “Food prices have jumped dramatically higher in part because of the strong growth in emerging countries,” he notes. “We are seeing a wealthier middle class in other countries that are buying more things and paying for more expensive food. This will also cause upward pressure on prices. For the most part, food and fuel are what is driving inflation higher.”

Disappointing corporate earnings

“Investors may be disappointed at the growth in corporate earnings from this point on,” Baumohl cautions. “I’m not sure if investors are adequately discounting that the economy is weakening, and with that comes a softness in earnings. This will obviously be reflected in the stock market.”

He agrees that the stock market has been struggling lately. “It reminds me of someone trying to swim in peanut butter,” he quips. “You get the feeling there is an inflection point coming, but you aren’t sure how much weaker the economy will be. But you get the feeling that something is in the midst of changing.”

Although companies see commodity prices rising, they can’t pass those prices onto consumers because the economy is weakening. “Therefore, profit margins will narrow,” Baumohl says. “That is one of the reasons investors have to be more cautious about the earnings outlook.”

The stressed consumer

Baumohl says that consumers are more cautious than they were at the beginning of the year. “Consumer confidence has been eroding, especially when we look at the weekly consumer confidence numbers like the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, which has been on the decline. Consumers won’t completely stop spending, but will gradually cut back.”

Because people are paying more for food and energy, Baumohl believes they are feeling financially squeezed. “Unfortunately, because workers don’t have the leverage these days to demand higher pay from their employers, there is a reduction in purchasing power, which has been reflected in the retail sales numbers.” Take out gasoline and food, he explains, and retail numbers are quite weak.

The Middle East: a geopolitical Rubik’s Cube

Baumohl says the Fed’s argument is that the floods, drought, and turmoil in the Middle East are artificially lifting food prices, and that these transient factors will subside, and so will inflation pressures.

Does Baumohl agree with the Fed? “I’m not convinced these are transient factors. I think we are going to see continued violence, instability, and uncertainty in the Middle East. The rhetoric between the major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran could heat up and lead to a possible confrontation. This will unnerve financial markets. There is a high probability things will get a lot more tense in that part of the world, which could kick up oil prices.”

If there is a further deterioration in the Middle East, which Baumohl believes is inevitable, oil prices will rise. “Yes, it’s transient, but how do you define transient? Will it last for three months, three years — or longer? I believe this is a longer lasting phenomenon that is putting pressure on oil to remain high. Someone called the eruptions in the Middle East a ‘geopolitical Rubik’s Cube,’ which is a great description of the utter ignorance about how this will be resolved.”

In addition, Baumohl points out, external events like the massive floods in the Mississippi, the droughts in France, and earthquakes are limiting the supply of agricultural goods at a time when the emerging countries are bristling ahead. “I think the demand for food from emerging countries is not temporary but will grow, and that will keep pressure on food prices for the long term.”

Part Two: Where You Should Invest Now

At the beginning of the year, Baumohl was much more confident about the pace of growth of the U.S economy. And now, he is concerned that unexpected shocks are starting to have an effect on corporate earnings and the overall economy. He lists some of the reasons why the economy seems so lethargic: Cuts in spending by federal, state, and local governments, a weak housing sector, a soft jobs market, household wages that aren’t keeping pace with inflation, and the rise in interest rates around the world.

Where to invest now?

As a result, Baumohl is much more cautious moving forward. “We really should be seeing the U.S. economy grow faster than 4 % at this stage in the business cycle. Instead, it seems stuck in low gear and likely to expand at a lackluster pace of 2 % to 3 % this year. I am betting against a recession, but I am also betting against a big economic recovery.”

Because of the dramatically changing economic environment, Baumohl suggests that investors increase their cash reserves, and be more selective about equities going forward. “We are recommending that investors keep 25 % in cash, 50 % in equities, with half U.S. and half foreign, 15 % in short-term bonds, 10 % in agricultural and industrial commodities, and 15 % precious metals. You have to include precious metals in your portfolio because of the enormous geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the threat of sovereign debt default in Europe, and the decline in confidence in paper assets.”

For patient investors looking at a 10 to 15 year horizon, Baumohl suggests you invest in emerging countries like Brazil, India, Singapore, and China — even Mongolia. “Emerging countries may contribute 70 % to 80 % of the world economic growth for the next 10 to 20 years, so everyone should be exposed to that part of the world. We will also see a lot of U.S. companies taking advantage of the growth in these countries.” Even small and midsized firms will need to export overseas to increase earnings, he notes.

Companies with exposure to emerging countries are especially attractive, he says, such as Rockwell Automation, Caterpillar, Procter and Gamble, Cummins, and 3M. “Other companies we like are CSX, Ford, and GM, who might do well relative to other stocks. It might surprise you but we also like the airline industry.

The two industries Baumohl is nervous about are banking and hotels. “Once they build a hotel, they are fixed assets that can’t be cut back. Regarding banks, when the economy is good, they do well. But banks face a weak economy, a lack of loan demand, new regulations, higher compliance costs, and limits on how much they can charge consumers.”

Cautiously optimistic

Nevertheless, Baumohl still believes the major stock indices, which are now positive, will end higher at the end of the year. “Based on our economic outlook and geopolitical assessment, we still expect the Dow to be up around 10 %, the S&P to gain 12 %, the Nasdaq 6 %, and the Russell 2000 up 8 %.”

Baumohl cautions, however, “if events accelerate out of control in the Middle East that cause the price of oil to approach $130 a barrel, and gasoline to rise beyond $4.00, then we have to reassess the situation. The probability this will occur before the end of the year is still a high 40% to 45%, so it can’t be dismissed altogether.”

The day that QE2 stops

“Don’t panic on that day,” Baumohl advises. “Nothing major will happen; it should be a non-event much like the millennium transition to 2000. Many people won’t even realize it. But after June, you must watch the FOMC statements very carefully for any hint of what the Fed might do next. My guess is the Fed won’t do anything, and pursue a wait-and-see attitude. If the economy is coming back strongly, and if companies are ramping up hiring, and inflation pressures pick up, the Fed will embark on monetary tightening measures. But I just do not see such Fed action this year.”

On the other hand, if the economy loses momentum, Baumohl says we could see another round of easing by the Fed in the form of QE3. “If the economy weakens dramatically, we cannot rule out QE3. By weakness I mean it continues to grow below 2 % and companies dramatically scale back hiring, the Fed may then feel obligated to launch another round of purchases of Treasury securities to keep interest rates historically low.”