Each weekend, I analyze market conditions using sentiment and technical indicators. The goal is to determine if we are in a bullish, bearish, or sideways market environment. *
JUST RELEASED: Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill, 2E) and Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2E): http://bit.ly/1bl0ZNk
My latest MarketWatch article (January): http://on.mktw.net/1bEjAEc
AAII survey (12/25/2013)
55.1% Bullish. 18.5% Bearish.
Bearish: If sentiment is over 50% bullish.
Bullish: If sentiment is over 50% bearish.
Investor’s Intelligence (12/24/2013)
59.6% Bullish. 14.1% Bearish.
Bearish: If sentiment is over 60% bullish.
Bullish: If sentiment is over 60% bearish.
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio: .54
Bearish: Less than or near .50 is bearish (more call options are being bought).
Bullish: Higher than or near 1.0 is bullish (more put options are being bought)
Bearish: Less than or near 12.
Bullish: Greater than or near 40.
Moving Averages (daily): S&P 500 (and Dow) is above its 50-day moving average, its 100-day and 200-day MA, and pointing up.
Bearish: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.
Bullish: Index crosses over 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA.
MACD: MACD is above the zero line, above its red 9-day signal line, and pointing up. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)
Bearish: MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line. MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line.
Bullish: MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line. MACD line crosses above zero line.
RSI: RSI is at 69.30 (on 12/27/2013)
Overbought: When RSI rises to 70 or above.
Oversold: When RSI falls to 30 or below.
Note: RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended time periods.
Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield is at 3.01% (on 12/27/2013)
Note: 3.0% or higher is significant (consider selling bond funds as yield rises). 3.5% or higher and risk increases (for bondholders).
Analysis and Opinion: (On Vacation): I will give my analysis and opinion beginning on January 5th. Have a Happy New Year.
* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.