Bullish or Bearish? Week of Dec. 19, 2016

Here’s a link to my most recent MarketWatch column: goo.gl/uh6xv7

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line = Bullish

S&P 500 support @ 2240, 2225, and 2200

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Dec. 13): 59.6% Bulls; 19.2% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Dec. 14): 44.7% Bulls; 32.3% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 12.20 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 67.51 = Overbought

Commentary: It is unknown if there will be a Christmas rally or a pullback. It’s always possible for an extremely overbought market to get more overbought. If you are on the sidelines and can’t stand to miss the Dow 20,000 party, you can initiate a small position. It’s not the time to go all-in, however, as stocks will likely follow bonds, gold, and oil in the future (i.e. lower). 

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