Bullish or Bearish? Week of Jan. 23, 2017

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA but flattened = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly below its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2269 and 2248

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Jan. 17): 60.6% Bulls; 18.4% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Jan. 18): 37% Bulls; 32.7% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.54 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 57.70 = Neutral

Comment: The indicators are mixed although the market is still overbought. The Investors Intelligence survey reflects excessive bullishness. For many investors, the fear of missing out is stronger than the fear of losing money. For weeks, the market has been in one of the tightest ranges in decades. Typically, this leads to a violent reaction in one direction or another. Since we don’t gamble, the best plan is to sit and wait for the market to make a move, and keep some cash on the side. 

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