Bullish or Bearish? Week of March 13, 2017

My latest MarketWatch column: goo.gl/9Lcnoa

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2310 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (March 7): 57.7% Bulls; 17.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (March 8): 30.0% Bulls; 46.5% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.66 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 63.70 = Neutral

Comment: The volatility I expected last week occurred in bonds, oil, and precious metals. It could be a different outcome for stocks this week as Janet Yellen is expected to raise interest rates by at least .25%. Eventually, higher interest rates are going to affect the stock market. Although it’s still an uptrend, it’s weakening. Considering the blowout jobs numbers, the market reaction was tepid. After an eight-year bull market, it’s time to take precautions. Bottom line: The market is still overbought. 

 

 

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