Bullish or Bearish? Week of March 6, 2017

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line = Bullish

S&P 500 support @ 2299 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Feb. 28): 63.1% Bulls; 16.5% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (March 1): 37.9% Bulls; 35.6% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 10.96 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 72.41 = Bearish

Comment: I hope your seat belts are fastened¬†because the next two weeks are going to be wild. The jobs report is released this Friday, so the market should be volatile as traders place their bets on the outcome. Janet Yellen has strongly hinted of an interest rate hike depending on those numbers (the Fed meets March 14 and 15). The market is obscenely overbought but it’s impossible to predict which way it will ultimately go. Traders smarter than me have identified many red flags, some coming from the bond market. Nevertheless, overbought markets can get more overbought before reversing. Bottom line: Pay close attention, be nimble, and be prepared for extreme volatility.¬†

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