Bullish or Bearish? Week of Nov. 27, 2017

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support @ 2580


Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: 

AAII survey: (Nov. 22): 35.5% Bulls; 29% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 9.65 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 64.51 = Neutral

Comment: As expected, the S&P 500 rallied during the holiday week. Bitcoin also rallied and has reached bubble levels, but don’t tell that to bitcoin buyers. They seem to think bitcoin’s spectacular rise is normal. I beg to differ. At this time, no one knows the true value of bitcoin, which is what makes it such a dangerous trade.

Regarding the S&P, we’re due for a nasty correction but no one can predict when, although a likely target is a few weeks to a few months from now. One possible scenario: A sudden and severe correction followed by a huge rally. That’s the setup I’m looking for, but I will play it week by week because the market can change on a dime. Meanwhile, the bulls are in control so let’s see how far they can run with the ball. It’s been an impressive rally, but what goes up eventually comes down. I admit this has been a much longer wait than almost anytime in history. 

I will notify you of my blog posts via twitter @michaelsincere

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