The Weekly Trader

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line but pointing down = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2178 and 2156 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Nov. 29) 56.3% Bulls; 22.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Nov. 23): 43.8% Bulls; 25.1% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 14.12 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 58.26 = Neutral

Comment: Most indexes are beyond overbought. The bulls are hoping for a xmas rally; the bears believe higher interest rates will derail the rally. My opinion: With ridiculous overbought readings and over-exuberance, I will err on the side of caution. It’s too early to short heavily, but too risky to go long. One thing for sure: Many experts, and retail investors, believe this market is unstoppable: Hello 1999 (again). 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line = Bullish

S&P 500 support @ 2159 (100-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Nov. 22) 55.9% Bulls; 21.6% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Nov. 23): 49.9% Bulls; 22.1% Bears = Bearish

VIX: @ 12.34 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 70.69 = Bearish 

Comment: The melt-up continues, bringing the indexes into extreme overbought territory. When stocks are in the euphoria stage, it’s too dangerous to chase higher, but too risky to short. Traders: Wait for cracks to appear and be ready to ride it lower (but take most profits quickly) Investors: Stay away from this 1999-type party. It will end in tears, as it always does, but no one can say when. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators: 

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line = Bullish

S&P 500 support @ 2,146 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Nov. 15) 51.0% Bulls; 23.5% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Nov. 16): 46.7% Bulls; 29.6% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 14.17 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 63.96 = Neutral/Bearish

Comment: Market is extremely overbought but we’re heading into a holiday week. Trouble lies ahead but impossible to time right now. Staying on sidelines until volatility returns is wisest move. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below the zero line = Bearish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line = Bullish

S&P 500 support @ 2145

 

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Nov. 8) 42.9% Bulls; 25.7% Bears = Neutral

AAII survey: (Nov. 9): 38.9% Bulls; 29.3% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 14.17 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 59.43 = Neutral/Bearish

Comment: We went up too high and too fast. Reversal likely so caution advised. Although market still has a little room to run, it’s not enough to go long. Odds favor the bears in the near future. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is below its 50-day, 100-day moving averages = Bearish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below the zero line = Bearish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 is slightly above its 200-day MA @ 2,083; next support is 2,077.

 

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Nov. 1) 41.7% Bulls; 24.3% Bears = Neutral

AAII survey: (Nov. 2): 23.6% Bulls; 34.3% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 22.51 = Neutral

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 28.26 = Bullish

Comment: Technical indicators reflect the 9-day losing streak of the S&P 500. The main bright spot is the RSI, and even the VIX, which reflects an oversold market. My gut tells me the market will rally (i.e. bounce) this week, but meanwhile, everyone is holding their breath until the election is over. Institutions are on the sidelines now, but that will change on Wednesday. The 200-day MA should hold at 2,083 unless there is a selling frenzy.