The Long-Term Trader

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2277

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Jan. 31): 61.8% Bulls; 17.6% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Feb. 1): 32.8% Bulls; 34.2% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 10.97 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 63.27 = Bearish

Comment: I’ve been re-reading a bestselling classic, “The Battle for Investment Survival,” by G.M. Loeb, a founding partner of E.F. Hutton. He says that to win the battle for investment survival, you must be willing to “hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities.” I couldn’t agree more. With sentiment from financial advisors and financial media at all time highs, this is the time to increase cash positions. There is no doubt in my mind that a terrific pullback is coming, and having cash on the side will allow you to buy low. I certainly can’t predict when this correction will occur, but the odds have recently increased. Be patient, and be cautious. When this bubble starts to deflate, it will be an eye-opener for the masses. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly below its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2269 and 2248

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Jan. 24): 58.2% Bulls; 17.5% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Jan. 25): 31.6% Bulls; 33.5% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 10.58 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 64.32 = Bearish

Comment: We appear to be in bubble territory, so caution advised. That being said, market could still go higher. FYI: My latest MarketWatch column is here: goo.gl/0C2H7t

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA but flattened = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly below its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2269 and 2248

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Jan. 17): 60.6% Bulls; 18.4% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Jan. 18): 37% Bulls; 32.7% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.54 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 57.70 = Neutral

Comment: The indicators are mixed although the market is still overbought. The Investors Intelligence survey reflects excessive bullishness. For many investors, the fear of missing out is stronger than the fear of losing money. For weeks, the market has been in one of the tightest ranges in decades. Typically, this leads to a violent reaction in one direction or another. Since we don’t gamble, the best plan is to sit and wait for the market to make a move, and keep some cash on the side. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2240, 2225, and 2200

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Jan. 10): 58.6% Bulls; 18.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Jan. 11): 43.6% Bulls; 27.0% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.23 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 61.33 = Neutral

Comment: Market is in a holding pattern thanks to the computer algos which buy on every dip. We’re still overbought at nosebleed levels but until sentiment changes, nothing changes. CSX is the poster child for overbought: a railroad company rising like a 1999 Internet stock. No one can predict the date and time, but the market is way overdue for a nasty pullback. And if sentiment also changes, that pullback could be worse than expected. 

Update: CSX is on a roller coaster ride. It sank after earnings were announced (-4%), but then rallied back the next day (+23%). FYI, it was a bull raid, a classic short squeeze.

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2240, 2225, and 2200

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (Jan. 3): 60.2% Bulls; 18.4% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Jan. 4): 46.2% Bulls; 25.2% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.32 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 64.51 = Neutral

Comment: When you’re in a market bubble, it feels really good, and most don’t realize they’re in one until it’s too late. My technician friends say we’re at rarified overbought levels, and I believe them. Nevertheless, it’s too dangerous to short bubbles so enjoy the ride while it lasts. Last week, buying on the dip worked as the S&P bounced off of 2240. Another clue we’re in uncharted territory is a steady transportation stock like CSX is acting like a 1999 Internet stock. Unreal.