The Weekly Trader

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is hovering slightly above its 50-day MA = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support @ 2346 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (April 4): 55.8% Bulls; 18.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (April 5): 28.3% Bulls; 39.6% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 12.87 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 49.67 = Neutral

Comment: Last week was interesting because of the intraday reversals. Put another way, the rallies did not hold. Right now, I’m watching the 50-day moving average, which is acting as support. This is earnings week so anything is possible. I am leaning bearish because of the intraday reversals and failed rallies, but this market could go in either direction. After all, sideways markets can be the most deceiving, so be on guard. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is hovering above its 50-day MA (S&P 2339) = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support @ 2339 (50-day moving average), and 2317.

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (March 28): 49.5% Bulls; 18.1% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (March 29): 30.2% Bulls; 37.4% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 12.37 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 53.68 = Neutral

Comment: On Monday, the S&P 500 bounced off of its 50-day moving average, but remained above it all week. That tells me it will take a lot more momentum to bring this market down. So far, there is little fear, although sentiment did take a slight turn to the cautious side in the II and AAII surveys (above). In fact, in the AAII survey, for the first time in a long time, bearish sentiment is higher than the bull side (it’s not significant yet unless it hits extreme levels).

Recently, I’ve heard predictions ranging from S&P 2500 on the high end to 2250 on the low end. The market hasn’t committed to one side or the other, so anything  is possible. As always, only the market is right which is why I  suggest being ready for either scenario. It’s possible the lengthy uptrend is coming to an end, which is why the market is only slightly above its 50-day moving average. On the other hand, there could be one final blowoff rally that could be the final bull market top. Put another way, it’s a 50-50 bet which way the market is going, and I don’t bet. One thing is for certain: No one knows for sure what is going to happen this week, so making big bets now is unwise. However, look for intraday reversals or a sudden pickup in volatility. That would be significant. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is hovering slightly above its 50-day MA (S&P 2330) = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) fell below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support @ 2330 (50-day moving average), then 2320.

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (March 21): 56.7% Bulls; 17.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (March 22): 35.3% Bulls; 30.5% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 12.98 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 44.80 = Neutral

Comment: The market always gives subtle clues that astute observers detect. Last Tuesday, there was an intraday reversal, and for the rest of the week, the market struggled as many traders sold each rally. Note that many technical indicators (above) turned from bullish (previously) to neutral/bearish. In addition, the sentiment indicators remain neutral/bearish. 

This coming week is very important as we look at more clues. In the past, after a rough week, the market often recovered, and it may do so again. However, if we continue to sell off during the week, that would be significant. I can’t predict which way the market will go but if it falls below its 50-day moving average, and lower, the market will be in for a rough spell. 

Bottom line: Something changed in the market last week, and not for the better. We will soon know if it’s only temporary. Meanwhile, be prepared to take either side as volatility makes a comeback. I’ve heard some pros predict 2500 (bullish) on the S&P as well as a 10% pullback (bearish). Typically, the truth lies somewhere in-between. 

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support @ 2350, then 2280

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (March 14): 53.4% Bulls; 17.5% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (March 15): 31.2% Bulls; 38.7% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.28 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 61.79 = Neutral

Comment: How do you trade a trendless market? You don’t. In the past, when the Fed raised interest rates, and it was also options expiration week, there was usually fireworks. Not this time. Lately, the market is putting everyone to sleep, which is the time to be on guard. Instead of trying to guess what the market will do next, be ready to follow the trend (when that trend develops). By the way, small technical cracks are showing up. We have to wait and see if those cracks get bigger. 

Lance Roberts of realinvestmentadvice has another excellent column here: goo.gl/9hD891 : Just Buy Everything.  

 

My latest MarketWatch column: goo.gl/9Lcnoa

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2310 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (March 7): 57.7% Bulls; 17.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (March 8): 30.0% Bulls; 46.5% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.66 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 63.70 = Neutral

Comment: The volatility I expected last week occurred in bonds, oil, and precious metals. It could be a different outcome for stocks this week as Janet Yellen is expected to raise interest rates by at least .25%. Eventually, higher interest rates are going to affect the stock market. Although it’s still an uptrend, it’s weakening. Considering the blowout jobs numbers, the market reaction was tepid. After an eight-year bull market, it’s time to take precautions. Bottom line: The market is still overbought.