WHAT THE INDICATORS ARE SAYING
This is what the technical indicators are telling us this week:
One-week trend = UP. The bulls continue to run with the ball as SPX rose from 4471 to 4533, another healthy 73-point advance. SPX is getting close to its all-time highs. Futures are slightly LOWER on Sunday night but that could change in the morning.
SPX 20-day moving average (WEEKLY): UP. SPX is moving farther away from its 20-day MA. The bull run continues.
RSI: (S&P 500) @66.12 (WEEKLY) = Slightly overbought but not in the danger zone. RSI is elevated but not at extreme levels.
MACD (WEEKLY) = MIXED. Once again, the weekly MACD is giving mixed signals: The MACD line is below its signal line (bearish) but above the zero line (bullish). However, the signal line is pointing lower but not sure if that is significant.
Daily Intraday Volatility (VIX) = 15.43 = All is well on Wall Street, says the VIX as it falls even lower. Nothing to see here.
Comment: The Bad News Bears just can’t catch a break. Until the moving averages break support, it may be financial malpractice to short the indexes (my apologies to any professional short-sellers). On the other hand, it’s always possible that a black swan will unexpectedly appear. In 13 years, I think I saw it twice.
Strong earnings was the reason for the advance, or so I’ve been told. While several indicators show the market as having a “lack of conviction,” the bulls keep scoring points.
Futures are slightly lower on Sunday night but the only number that counts is the opening. It’s been a very long time since we’ve had a deep correction, as Lance Roberts correctly mentions in his blog. Here’s another one for the record books: From Lance: There is another streak that is also just as problematic. Currently, the S&P 500 index has gone 344-days without violating the 200-dma. Such is the sixth-longest streak going back to 1960.” Wow.
Wake me up when something happens. Like everyone else, I’m feeling very complacent. (FYI: In reality, complacency is a dangerous emotion, especially if you’re a trader. That’s when the market comes up and bites you when you least expect it!)
Bottom line: Sit and wait.
Stock evaluation program from Barchart: https://bit.ly/3v9Nj9G
For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA
For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts’ latest newsletter:www.realinvestmentadvice.com
For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter: https://wolfstreet.com