Here is the link to Understanding Stocks (third edition): https://amzn.to/3wO761F (Amazon) or https://bit.ly/3udwAUf (Barnes and Noble). Here is the link to How to Profit in the Stock Market: https://amzn.to/35lnjQy
Note: I’m building and designing an entirely new website, which will be completed early next year.
WHAT THE TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE TELLING US THIS WEEK
Short-term trend (DAILY CHART) – RALLY: SPX has continued to rally, rising above resistance at SPX 4,000 to reach 4,026. On the daily chart, SPX is close to rising above its 200-day moving average. It looks bullish but be careful as the market could be “topping out.” On Sunday night, futures are lower, but that could change in the morning.
Long-term trend (WEEKLY CHART) – RALLY. SPX is also rallying on the weekly chart. Unless something unexpected happens, we are on a bullish path right into the end of the year (i.e., the so-called Christmas rally).
MACD (WEEKLY) = MIXED. The WEEKLY MACD is below the zero line but well above the 9-day signal line. It looks bullish but we still have not received the “all-clear” signal.
RSI: (S&P 500) @61.99 (DAILY) OVERBOUGHT. SPX is still overbought but not at obscene levels, which means the markets could keep rallying year-end before topping out and reversing.
Daily Intraday Volatility (VIX) = 20.50. LITTLE FEAR. According to VIX, fear is still on vacation (by evaluating the number of S&P 500 put options purchased over a set time period).
Comment: The rally that started a few weeks ago has continued, even as the Fed plans to raise interest rates (but reportedly not as aggressively as before, which is considered bullish). We may also have the so-called Christmas rally, and if all goes according to plan, we could rally through December.
Unfortunately, the market has a mind of its own so anything can happen. Based on the odds, however, there is a good chance the market will keep rallying. It’s a gamble to make a big bet on market direction, so it’s wise to avoid making this 50-50 trade. However, that’s a decision only you can make.
Black Friday was a huge success as shoppers came out looking for bargains, which should bode well for the economy, at least at first.
Trade or invest according to your plan. Remember that the odds are great the market is topping out and will reverse sometime in 2023. I wish I had a crystal ball so I can tell you when. Until then, be alert to the clues and indicators.