Bullish or Bearish? Week of May 13, 2019

S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average = Bullish 

S&P 500 is slightly above its 50-day moving average = Neutral

S&P 500 one-month trend = Short-term Trend Reversal (Bearish)

RSI: (S&P 500) @46.24 = Neutral

MACD: Above zero line but below signal line (Bearish)

Daily Intraday Volatility: 16.04 (Bearish). Volatility is still low although there were a number of intraday spikes last week.

Comment: The indicators above turned from bullish to neutral or bearish, which is reflected in the Sunday night futures market (-1%). Last week was not pleasant for the bulls, and would have been worse except for a last-minute save by the White House (who said the talks with China are going well) on Friday afternoon.

So now we have an overbought market, conflicts with China, Iran, and Venuzuela, and a lack of buyers. At the very least, we should have a volatile week. At worst, it could get ugly. The bulls will be hoping for an afternoon save on Monday, but it’s unlikely anything but a true agreement with China will appease the global markets.

What to look for: See if the S&P 500 can remain above its 50-day moving average this week. If it can’t, the 100- and 200- are within reach in the coming weeks.

Bottom line: Prepare for higher volatility and a potential selloff, if only for a week. This is not necessarily the start of a bear market, but it’s obvious the bull market is nearing an end (but it likely has a few more moves left before it finally says goodbye).


For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com

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