Bullish or Bearish? Week of April 1, 2019

Here are the most recent market indicators:

S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average = Bullish 

S&P 500 is above its 50-day moving average = Bullish

S&P 500 one-month trend = Uptrend (Bullish)

RSI: (S&P 500) @60.06 = Overbought (Bearish)

MACD: Above zero line but nearly even with its signal line (Neutral)

Daily Intraday Volatility: Moderate

Comment: The market eked out a gain last week with help from the algos, which defended SPX 2800 every time it was threatened. The real action was in the bond market, where yields have plunged (and bond prices rallied) as many investors moved to the safety of Treasuries.

Once again, the market is overbought although not at extreme levels. It’s possible we’ll get a few more rally days but a reversal and pullback is imminent. Thus far, most investors (mostly index investors) are complacent and content without realizing the dangers that lie ahead. Warning signs are everywhere so it’s only a matter of time before volatility appears again and the indexes plunge. Nevertheless, it’s still too early to bet heavily against the market as it could go higher.

Bottom line: The indexes are getting into overbought territory again so a pullback is likely. Keep your eye on SPX 2800 as that is the line in the sand. When that breaks (and no one can predict when), it could be a nasty ride down. Futures are higher on Sunday night so watch and see if the rally will last.


For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com

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