Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:
Technical Indicators (daily chart)
S&P 500 is below its 50-day MA = Bearish
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly above its zero line = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 support @ 2330
Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)
II survey: (April 18): 51.9% Bulls; 18.3% Bears = Bearish
AAII survey: (April 19): 25.7% Bulls; 38.7% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 14.63 = Neutral
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 48.71 = Neutral
Comment: The S&P futures gapped up almost 1% overnight (at this writing) based on the election results from France. Although the market might open up on the high side, there is no guarantee it will last. The only guarantee is this week will be volatile as GDP is released on Friday, tech heavyweights report earnings, political and geopolitical events heat up, and Congress returns from vacation.
If you are bullish, it’s risky to chase the spike at the open. If you are bearish, it could be too early to short (i.e. fading the gap). It’s times like this that the wisest choice is to sit back and wait before pouncing. Observe whether the morning rally holds, or reverses. Observe how the market closes. It’s very likely the market is going to zig and zag all week, so be prepared for any scenario. It is going to get interesting, so be careful out there.