Bullish or Bearish? Week of Dec. 9, 2019

S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average = Bullish  

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

S&P 500 one-month trend: SPX is in a strong uptrend that appears unstoppable, but also unsustainable for the long term.

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 63.98 = SPX is still overbought. At over 70 RSI, it will be extremely overbought.

MACD: Above Zero Line and above Signal Line = Bullish

Daily Intraday Volatility: 13.62 = Low (Bearish)

Comment: Last week, SPX sold off for two days, but then rebounded back by the end of the week, fueled by a blockbuster jobs report. RSI is still high but it is off its extreme highs, and VIX is still low but it is off its extreme low. Now that we’re almost back to where we started, all we can do is sit back and look for opportunities, if any.

The Sunday night futures are slightly lower, and aren’t telling us much. At this time, predicting what the market will do over the next week or two is a useless exercise. No one has a clue. The Fed has the market’s back so the odds are with a rally, but anything can happen, especially in the geopolitical world. My best advice is to take it day by day.

Bottom line: The indexes are still overbought but that could change in a heartbeat. Investors are enjoying the ride higher while traders sit and wait for a better risk reward.

For a trader’s perspective, read the following piece by Sven Henrich, Northman Trader, who makes a strong case for selling: https://bit.ly/2RxOrmc, and also this more detailed analysis: https://bit.ly/33YQthD

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For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com


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