Bullish or Bearish? Week of Feb. 11, 2019

Here are the most recent market indicators:

S&P 500 is slightly below its 200-day moving average = Neutral 

S&P 500 is above its 50-day moving average = Bullish

S&P 500 one-month trend = Uptrend (with major resistance at 200-day MA)

RSI: (S&P 500) @60.52 = Slightly Overbought (Bearish)

MACD: Above zero line = Bullish

Daily Intraday Volatility: Moderate

Comment: I wrote a column for MarketWatch on the state of the current market: https://on.mktw.net/2RNeIJN

As I wrote in my column (above), this is another important week for the market. At the moment, the SPX is just under its 200-day moving average. It did rise above it for a couple of days last week but fell below it on Thursday and Friday. This is not a good sign, especially if SPX is unable to rise above resistance at its 200-day moving average.

As I wrote in my column, this is the time to take a wait-and-see approach (especially if you are trading indexes). Unless the market is able to break above resistance (at the 200-day MA), a strong pullback is likely. Nevertheless, instead of placing a bet before it makes its move, wait and see if an uptrend or downtrend develops. Then follow the winner.

Early Sunday night, futures are slightly lower, confirming that it’s going to take a lot of firepower for the bulls to run the market above its 200-day moving average.

Bottom line: It’s watch and wait time. In my opinion, the odds are to the downside because SPX failed to stay above its 200-day MA. Nevertheless, unexpected buyers could enter to push it higher, which is why I would wait before committing to one side or the other.


For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com

I will notify you of my posts via twitter@michaelsincere

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