Bullish or Bearish? Week of Feb. 4, 2019

Here are the most recent market indicators:

S&P 500 is slightly below its 200-day moving average = Neutral 

S&P 500 is above its 50-day moving average = Bullish

S&P 500 one-month trend = Uptrend (with major resistance at 200-day MA)

RSI: (S&P 500) @63.93 = Overbought (Bearish)

MACD: Above zero line = Bullish

Daily Intraday Volatility: Moderate

Comment: As you can see from the indicators above, it’s a mixed picture. The S&P 500 is overbought but the uptrend is strong.

This is a very important week. The S&P 500 rose last week, landing right below its 200-day moving average. It’s put up or shut up time for the market. If the indexes can rise above its 200-day moving averages, then the uptrend will continue and the indexes have room to move higher. If the indexes fail and reverse direction, the downside could be vicious. No one can predict right now what will happen at the 200-day moving average line, but it must be watched closely.

If the algos have their way, they will keep volatility low while the market moves slowly higher. That would be the worst scenario for bearish traders.

Bottom line: Instead of making bets before the market reaches the 200-day moving average, step back and watch what happens after it crosses over or under. Then follow the trend (easier said than done if volatility increases).


For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com

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