Bullish or Bearish? Week of March 18, 2019


Here are the most recent market indicators:

S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average = Bullish 

S&P 500 is above its 50-day moving average = Bullish

S&P 500 one-month trend = Uptrend (Bullish)

RSI: (S&P 500) @66.10 = Overbought (Bearish)

MACD: Above zero line but even with its signal line (Neutral)

Daily Intraday Volatility: Low

Comment: The indexes had a slow but steady upward climb last week. It drove most traders crazy but the low volatility and lack of institutional buying keeps buy-and-hold investors calm. No one knows how long this manipulated market will keep going higher, but one day volatility will return again. The VIX is under 13 again, which reflects complacency and calmness. This can’t last forever.

Meanwhile, the Fed meets this week, and Powell will likely go out of his way to keep the good times coming. I doubt he’ll say anything to upset the market. Nevertheless, in the past, volatility has increased right after the Fed minutes are released on Wednesday.

After last week’s slow rally, the S&P 500 is overbought again, so a pullback would not be surprising. That being said, the algos are going to run the market as high as they can until something breaks.

Bottom line: It’s all about the Fed this week. Let’s see if volatility returns to the market, and whether Powell says anything besides, “I’ll do whatever it takes to keep Wall Street happy, and that means I will keep interest rates as low as possible as long as possible because I don’t want the stock market to plunge again.” (my quote but you get the idea).

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For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com

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