Bullish or Bearish? Week of Nov. 25, 2019

S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average = Bullish  

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

S&P 500 one-month trend: SPX is in a strong uptrend that still seems unstoppable for the moment.

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 66.87 = SPX is still overbought. At over 70 RSI, it will be extremely overbought.

MACD: Above Zero Line and above Signal Line = Bullish

Daily Intraday Volatility: 12.34 = Extremely Low (Bearish)

Comment: This will be a shortened week (Thursday holiday and Friday markets close at 1:00 p.m. ET), so I’ll keep it short.

The indexes pulled back slightly during the week, relieving some of the pressure from a severely overbought market. Futures are up on Sunday night, so it’s possible the march higher will continue. As I’ve repeatedly said, shorting the indexes during an uptrend is not recommended.

In addition, I’ve determined that in this current environment, trading individual stocks is more profitable than trading indexes, but that obviously depends on your trading strategy. For me, there hasn’t been enough volatility to lure me back to the indexes, and until there is, I trade individual stocks. (I’d be happy to hear from anyone who is doing well trading indexes).

Speaking of indexes, index buy and holders are doing well by doing nothing but watching the indexes slowly climb higher. Of course, the buy and hold strategy will stop being profitable one day, but for now, index investors look pretty smart. This might continue through this week and beyond. No one knows.

Bottom line: Keep a close eye on the indexes and still be on the lookout for individual stocks (to buy or short).

Have a great Thanksgiving!

FYI: I have a new article coming out on MarketWatch later in the week. I’ll share the link on this space when it’s published.


For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter:www.wolfstreet.com

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