Bullish or Bearish? Week of October 19, 2020

This is what the technical indicators are telling us this week: 

One-month trend = Neutral to Bullish. SPX is well above its 200-day MA, a bullish signal, but the rally stalled last week after making all-time highs. SPX closed at 3483.81 at the close on Friday. Note: SPX futures are higher on Sunday night. Let’s see if the bulls can take control.

Mid-term (50- and 100-day MA) = Neutral to Bullish. The S&P 500 is still above its 50-day MA. So far, it has remained above.

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 58.64 (Daily) = Slightly Overbought. RSI fell back a little. It is overbought but not at extreme levels.

MACD = Bullish. MACD is above its zero line and is above its 9-day Signal Line. MACD came out of the doldrums and is pointing to a more bullish scenario.

Daily Intraday Volatility (VIX): 27.41 = Low. VIX is still below its 200-day moving average, indicating that volatility is low, and that fear is still missing.

Comment: These are strange times and a strange market. Market veterans complained that they’ve never seen anything like it. Some have suggested there is an invisible hand (i.e. algos backed by the Fed) that is keeping the market propped up. I don’t have evidence of that but admittedly, the market refuses to fall for very long even as the economy shows signs of despair.

All bets are off when it comes to predicting what is going to happen two weeks before an election. I won’t even try. The facts: SPX is slightly higher on Sunday night. That means the odds are a little better than even that we will rally at the open. If we don’t, that would be significant. Oh, there are rumors of a stimulus deal. Perhaps that is raising hopes, but I follow the market, not the news.

Bottom line: It’s not easy following the trend two weeks before an election!

Here is a more detailed analysis about the market from Lance Roberts: 

Lance Roberts @ realinvestmentadvice.com wrote how the market stumbled last week on the failed stimulus talks. (This week could be a different story): https://bit.ly/3o7m24m


For daily results of multiple indicators, read Yardeni Research: https://goo.gl/eT3fzA

For insightful analysis of the stock market, read Lance Roberts:www.realinvestmentadvice.com

For insightful analysis of economic conditions, read Wolf Richter: https://wolfstreet.com

I will notify you of my posts via twitter@michaelsincere

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