Market Indicators (as of March 16)

Each weekend, I will list signals from the most popular market indicators.

(A full list of the major indicators with signals can be found in my book, All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill).) I’m also the author of Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill),Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill), and Start Day Trading Now (Adams Media).

AAII survey (3/13/2013)

45.4% bullish. 32.0% bearish.

 

Sell signal: Over 60% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Investor’s Intelligence (3/13/2013):

50% bullish. 18.8% bearish.

 

Sell signal: Over 50% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .60

 

Sell signal: Lower than .75 is a sell.

Buy signal: Higher than 1.0 is a buy (more puts are being bought)

 

VIX: 11.30

 

Sell signal: Lower than 12.

Buy signal: Over 40.

 

Moving Averages: S&P 500 above all three moving averages

 

Sell signal: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Buy signal: Index crosses over MA.

 

MACD: MACD above zero line and crossed over signal line

 

Sell signal: MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line. MACD line crosses below 9-day (gray) signal line.

Buy Signal: MACD line crosses above zero line. MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line.

 

Comment: The trend is still your friend until it ends. Moving averages and MACD still bullish but other indicators reflect caution ahead. Bullishness increasing among individual traders and journalists, which is a negative sign: A sharp correction could bring them back to reality.

 

Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

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