Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:
Technical Indicators
S&P 500 is below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages = Bearish
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below the zero line = Bearish
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 is even with support @ 2,130 = Neutral
Sentiment Indicators
II survey: (Oct. 11) 46.1% Bulls; 23.1% Bears = Neutral
AAII survey: (Oct. 12): 25.5% Bulls; 33.7% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 16.12 = Neutral
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 42.47 = Neutral
Comment: Market has taken a turn for the worse. The technical indicators are telling us to be very, very careful. Friday’s intraday reversal was another warning sign. Be on the lookout for failed rallies. Cash is king this week, and start brushing up on buying put options (recommended if experienced) and short selling (only for the pros).
Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:
Technical indicators (daily chart)
S&P 500 is exactly at its 50-day Moving Average (MA) = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with the zero line = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is at its signal line = Neutral
S&P 500 support is 2,150 and 2,131 (100-day MA)
Sentiment indicators
II survey: (Sept. 27) 45.2% Bulls; 23.1% Bears = Neutral
AAII survey: (Sept. 28): 24.0% Bulls; 37.1% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 13.29 = Bearish
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 52.43 = Neutral
My latest market analysis can be found at MarketWatch: goo.gl/KfKqaW
Technical indicators (daily chart)
S&P 500 is slightly below its 50-day MA = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with the zero line = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 support is 2,150 and 2,126 (100-day MA).
Sentiment indicators
II survey: (Sept. 20) 44.6% Bulls; 24.3% Bears = Neutral
AAII survey: (Sept. 21): 24.8% Bulls; 38.3% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 12.29 = Bearish
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 51.52= Neutral
Comment: The indexes can go in either direction this week based on clues and indicators. The odds favor the bears but not by much. Best advice: Wait on the sidelines until a trend is established.
Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:
Technical indicators
S&P 500 (daily chart) is below its 50-day MA and pointing down = Bearish
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly above the zero line and pointing down = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 support is 2,122 (100-day MA), 2,050, and 2,000.
Sentiment indicators
II survey: (Sept. 13) 49% Bulls; 22.6% Bears = Bearish
AAII survey: (Sept. 14): 27.9% Bulls; 35.9% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 15.37 = Neutral
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 42.91 = Neutral
Comment: Market is down but not out. The Fed and BOJ have market-moving meetings and statements this week. It’s a good idea to sit on the sidelines and watch to see if market continues to retreat, or if the central bank can keep markets calm. The odds are good volatility will continue during the week. Nevertheless, market typically moves higher right before and during Fed meeting.
To summarize, here are the technical and sentiment indicators from Friday’s close:
Technical indicators
S&P 500 is below its 50-day moving average and pointing down = Bearish
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 support is 2,120 (100-day moving average), 2,050, and 2,000 (i.e. 10% correction).
Sentiment indicators
II survey: (Sept. 6) 52.5% Bulls; 22.8% Bears = Bearish
AAII survey: (Sept. 7): 29.8% Bulls; 28.5% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 17.50 = Neutral
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 31.94 = Oversold
Comment: What a difference a day makes! It’s too early to proclaim a trend change as this could be only a one-day pullback. I used some cash to probe the market with SPY put options. I’m looking for clues, i.e. if volatility continues to spike, if there is an intraday reversal, and if market continues to sell off at end of day. Prepare to go long if selloff is extreme.