This is my timely article on identifying clues and characteristics of market crashes. Posted on Marketwatch: http://bit.ly/mP8Z9N
The Weekly Trader
Q. Do you expect a crash?
Sykes: I would say there are better odds of a crash than a big spike. I am a short seller. I have a short bias. With our debt and government interventions, eventually something could happen, even if it won’t last. People get freaked out pretty fast.
I don’t know if there will be a crash. The debt and dollar would make the most sense. If we get downgraded, that could cause a crash. There’s a lot of danger on the horizon. One thing I do know: shorting is difficult. You cannot stay short or you will be crushed. It reminds me of the guy who predicted the end of the world several times. It’s no different than people who predict Dow 40,000. They are looking for attention.
Q. What are some clues that precede a crash?
Sykes: Seasonality is a big part of it. Another big clue is when you have a lot of speculative things flying. That is usually the end of a bull market. You can make the case about the Twitter, Facebook, Linked In, and Pandora valuations. It’s possibly a bubble. It sounds amazing; all these companies and their amazing business models. People think these businesses will never stop growing, but that is just bull. With all this stuff flying, it could well signal the end. A lot of IPOs are coming out and raising cash so we’ll have to see.
Q. When do crashes occur?
Sykes: First of all, historically crashes have occurred the most often in September and October, so you need to be extra aware during these two months. Crashes usually don’t happen out of the blue, although sometimes they do. Usually, a market will be downtrending, and people are selling, and then they’ll puke it up in one day. This is momentum that is usually built up over days and weeks. Always be aware of gradual downtrends where there are no bounces. This can lead to a blowoff.
Q. Are there other clues the market might crash?
Sykes: I look to see if the media says we’ve been down 10 or 12 days in a row, and that it’s a record. Even though it’s meaningless, it influences people. It causes people to want to exit in mass. It’s like a run on the bank, and people are influenced by fear. I follow the downtrend or very influential news. It’s no different than buying, that is, when you are looking for positive news.
Q. Can people call the top of the market?
Sykes: People love to call the top because they think there will be a crash from the top. Rarely do you find a specific crash at the top. You might find it failing to break out to new highs. Crashes don’t usually happen at the top, they usually happen after several days or hours of fading. Because people have their stops at the previous high, it can also create a massive short squeeze. That’s why I don’t try to pick tops.
Q. How would you trade a potential crash?
Sykes: I wait for a bounce. I don’t like shorting after a giant drop. I like shorting after a bounce or a failed bounce. If you short into a free-falling market, although you can make quick profits right away, you can also get a violent snap-back rally. That is difficult to protect yourself. But in every single crash throughout history, there has been a bounce, no matter how fleeting. It might not be huge or long, but if you can sit in cash during the crash, you have an opportunity. The best opportunities are during flash crashes.
Note: Part II of my interview with Timothy Sykes will be posted on this Web site in approximately two weeks.
Commentary: Day trading is popular again, and as controversial as ever.
With the huge volatility in the stock market during the last year, day traders are back. Or maybe they never left.
In the 1990s, day trading was all the rage, especially using risky strategies like scalping, where you’re in and out of hundreds of stocks in seconds or minutes, aiming to make small but quick profits. Scalping was profitable until decimalization, and the 2000 crash, when many once successful traders got wiped out.
A few years later, people switched to day trading houses. That lasted until the 2008 housing crash, when many once successful homebuyers got wiped out.
More recently, high frequency traders (HFT), the ultimate day traders, use high-speed computers to scalp for pennies in nanoseconds, which adds up to billions of dollars in profits every year.
Although retail traders can’t compete with these million dollar computers, many lone day traders have returned to the stock market.
Eight reasons not to day trade
Nevertheless, the controversy over day trading strategies hasn’t stopped. Last year, two successful traders, James Altucher and Timothy Sykes, had a blogging war over the benefits and risks of day trading. Dozens of comments from readers appeared on their blogs, attacking and defending.
Altucher threw the first punch in a blog he wrote, “8 Reasons Not to Day Trade.” Link to article here: http://bit.ly/h028VG
Here are a few snippets:
“Everyone wants to be a day trader. Let me tell you the best days. You get in at 9:25 a.m. You make the trade your system tells you to make at 9:30 a.m. And by 9:45 a.m., the trade is done, profitable, and you’re done for the day: $1,800 richer and happy about it…but it’s all a lie to yourself…” In the long run, Altucher says he has none of the qualities of a succ essful day trader. “And neither do you,” he concludes.
Here are the eight reasons why Altucher says you shouldn’t day trade:
1. Suicide 2. You’ll overeat 3. Your eyes go bad 4. Social life 5. Blood pressure 6. Nothing productive 7. No career 8. It’s impossible
Twenty-four reasons to day trade
After Altucher’s blog was published, successful day trader Sykes immediately responded with an article, “24 Reasons to Day Trade.” Link to article here: http://bit.ly/9n1C1h
Here are a few snippets from his blog:
“When I read James Altucher’s article, I couldn’t help but feel anger, and within a few hours of reading it, I experienced many of the symptoms he described, although in a slightly different context…I rubbed my eyes to see if his post was even real, somehow thinking it was impossible that he could write such blasphemy…”
According to Sykes, day trading is thrilling, exciting, mentally challenging, and educational. “Day traders talk faster, think faster, and do things faster. We get more out of life because day trading is a fast-paced job.”
He admits that day trading can be unhealthy, so he suggests hiring a personal trainer to lose weight. And yes, he says, your eyes can go bad, so get a glare protector for your computer. In addition, if your blood pressure is rising, it’s a clue to Sykes the trade is bad. He uses his body as an early biological warning system.
The cure for most trading losses, Sykes suggests, is cutting losses quickly. Learning how to cut losses can also help you in life, real estate, and relationships. Another way to survive the day trading battlefield is to enter a trade with nothing less than a 3:1 risk reward ratio.
It’s easier than ever to be a day trader because of technology, he claims, and you don’t have to be a genius. Ironically, he says he is terrible at math. Sykes says if you’re willing to aim for less profit, you can make a good living as a part-time day trader.
Finally, Sykes suggests that if you’re part of the magical 10% that succeed at day trading, the freedom it provides is worth the effort. And even if you are socially incompetent, he claims, money makes up for it.
The modern day trader
Hopefully, people have learned from past mistakes — when unknowledgeable traders quit their jobs and cleared out their 401(k)’s to day trade. Many modern day traders trade less frequently and are choosier about the trades they make. Although day trading is not for everyone and is still controversial, it can be a viable strategy during certain market conditions.
But don’t dare start day trading without first understanding all of the risks. The first question you should ask yourself before making that first day trade: “What’s the worst that can happen after I place this order?”
I’m now a featured financial columnist for Marketwatch.com, published by Dow Jones & Co., which is part of The Wall Street Digital Network, and includes WSJ.com and Barrons.com.
My column, Michael Sincere’s Long-Term Trader, will appear online twice a month. Here’s a link to this month’s article:
To get a clearer idea of where the economy is headed, I spoke with Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist of The Economic Outlook Group and author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators (Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007). He’s had an excellent long-term record of making stock market forecasts.
2011: A good start with an uncertain ending
“It does appear that QE2 will end and that it will not be followed by QE3,” Baumohl said, “at least for the time being. A lot depends on what happens to the economy in the second half. We came into 2011 with lots of momentum. Earnings expectations were getting stronger and the stock market did quite well.”
In fact, Baumohl had correctly forecast a strong year for all the major indexes. “But as you know, midway through the first quarter, we began to experience a variety of geopolitical shocks as well as natural disasters,” he explains. “Ordinarily, geopolitical shocks have a minimal impact on the financial markets, and are short-term at best. But the geopolitical shocks we have now, and continue to have, are on a scale and magnitude that we have not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
The new norm: a higher cost of living
Baumohl says that investors should be prepared to live in an era that will be defined by geopolitical instability, primarily because of the turmoil in the Middle East. “What this means is the price of oil will likely remain elevated for quite some time. The new normal may mean a price of $90 to $130 a barrel, which will obviously keep gasoline prices higher than normal as well.”
Baumohl explains that because we have little or no control over events taking place outside of the U.S., many Americans will have to adjust to a higher cost of living. “Food prices have jumped dramatically higher in part because of the strong growth in emerging countries,” he notes. “We are seeing a wealthier middle class in other countries that are buying more things and paying for more expensive food. This will also cause upward pressure on prices. For the most part, food and fuel are what is driving inflation higher.”
Disappointing corporate earnings
“Investors may be disappointed at the growth in corporate earnings from this point on,” Baumohl cautions. “I’m not sure if investors are adequately discounting that the economy is weakening, and with that comes a softness in earnings. This will obviously be reflected in the stock market.”
He agrees that the stock market has been struggling lately. “It reminds me of someone trying to swim in peanut butter,” he quips. “You get the feeling there is an inflection point coming, but you aren’t sure how much weaker the economy will be. But you get the feeling that something is in the midst of changing.”
Although companies see commodity prices rising, they can’t pass those prices onto consumers because the economy is weakening. “Therefore, profit margins will narrow,” Baumohl says. “That is one of the reasons investors have to be more cautious about the earnings outlook.”
The stressed consumer
Baumohl says that consumers are more cautious than they were at the beginning of the year. “Consumer confidence has been eroding, especially when we look at the weekly consumer confidence numbers like the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, which has been on the decline. Consumers won’t completely stop spending, but will gradually cut back.”
Because people are paying more for food and energy, Baumohl believes they are feeling financially squeezed. “Unfortunately, because workers don’t have the leverage these days to demand higher pay from their employers, there is a reduction in purchasing power, which has been reflected in the retail sales numbers.” Take out gasoline and food, he explains, and retail numbers are quite weak.
The Middle East: a geopolitical Rubik’s Cube
Baumohl says the Fed’s argument is that the floods, drought, and turmoil in the Middle East are artificially lifting food prices, and that these transient factors will subside, and so will inflation pressures.
Does Baumohl agree with the Fed? “I’m not convinced these are transient factors. I think we are going to see continued violence, instability, and uncertainty in the Middle East. The rhetoric between the major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran could heat up and lead to a possible confrontation. This will unnerve financial markets. There is a high probability things will get a lot more tense in that part of the world, which could kick up oil prices.”
If there is a further deterioration in the Middle East, which Baumohl believes is inevitable, oil prices will rise. “Yes, it’s transient, but how do you define transient? Will it last for three months, three years — or longer? I believe this is a longer lasting phenomenon that is putting pressure on oil to remain high. Someone called the eruptions in the Middle East a ‘geopolitical Rubik’s Cube,’ which is a great description of the utter ignorance about how this will be resolved.”
In addition, Baumohl points out, external events like the massive floods in the Mississippi, the droughts in France, and earthquakes are limiting the supply of agricultural goods at a time when the emerging countries are bristling ahead. “I think the demand for food from emerging countries is not temporary but will grow, and that will keep pressure on food prices for the long term.”
Part Two: Where You Should Invest Now
At the beginning of the year, Baumohl was much more confident about the pace of growth of the U.S economy. And now, he is concerned that unexpected shocks are starting to have an effect on corporate earnings and the overall economy. He lists some of the reasons why the economy seems so lethargic: Cuts in spending by federal, state, and local governments, a weak housing sector, a soft jobs market, household wages that aren’t keeping pace with inflation, and the rise in interest rates around the world.
Where to invest now?
As a result, Baumohl is much more cautious moving forward. “We really should be seeing the U.S. economy grow faster than 4 % at this stage in the business cycle. Instead, it seems stuck in low gear and likely to expand at a lackluster pace of 2 % to 3 % this year. I am betting against a recession, but I am also betting against a big economic recovery.”
Because of the dramatically changing economic environment, Baumohl suggests that investors increase their cash reserves, and be more selective about equities going forward. “We are recommending that investors keep 25 % in cash, 50 % in equities, with half U.S. and half foreign, 15 % in short-term bonds, 10 % in agricultural and industrial commodities, and 15 % precious metals. You have to include precious metals in your portfolio because of the enormous geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the threat of sovereign debt default in Europe, and the decline in confidence in paper assets.”
For patient investors looking at a 10 to 15 year horizon, Baumohl suggests you invest in emerging countries like Brazil, India, Singapore, and China — even Mongolia. “Emerging countries may contribute 70 % to 80 % of the world economic growth for the next 10 to 20 years, so everyone should be exposed to that part of the world. We will also see a lot of U.S. companies taking advantage of the growth in these countries.” Even small and midsized firms will need to export overseas to increase earnings, he notes.
Companies with exposure to emerging countries are especially attractive, he says, such as Rockwell Automation, Caterpillar, Procter and Gamble, Cummins, and 3M. “Other companies we like are CSX, Ford, and GM, who might do well relative to other stocks. It might surprise you but we also like the airline industry.
The two industries Baumohl is nervous about are banking and hotels. “Once they build a hotel, they are fixed assets that can’t be cut back. Regarding banks, when the economy is good, they do well. But banks face a weak economy, a lack of loan demand, new regulations, higher compliance costs, and limits on how much they can charge consumers.”
Nevertheless, Baumohl still believes the major stock indices, which are now positive, will end higher at the end of the year. “Based on our economic outlook and geopolitical assessment, we still expect the Dow to be up around 10 %, the S&P to gain 12 %, the Nasdaq 6 %, and the Russell 2000 up 8 %.”
Baumohl cautions, however, “if events accelerate out of control in the Middle East that cause the price of oil to approach $130 a barrel, and gasoline to rise beyond $4.00, then we have to reassess the situation. The probability this will occur before the end of the year is still a high 40% to 45%, so it can’t be dismissed altogether.”
The day that QE2 stops
“Don’t panic on that day,” Baumohl advises. “Nothing major will happen; it should be a non-event much like the millennium transition to 2000. Many people won’t even realize it. But after June, you must watch the FOMC statements very carefully for any hint of what the Fed might do next. My guess is the Fed won’t do anything, and pursue a wait-and-see attitude. If the economy is coming back strongly, and if companies are ramping up hiring, and inflation pressures pick up, the Fed will embark on monetary tightening measures. But I just do not see such Fed action this year.”
On the other hand, if the economy loses momentum, Baumohl says we could see another round of easing by the Fed in the form of QE3. “If the economy weakens dramatically, we cannot rule out QE3. By weakness I mean it continues to grow below 2 % and companies dramatically scale back hiring, the Fed may then feel obligated to launch another round of purchases of Treasury securities to keep interest rates historically low.”