The Weekly Trader

Each weekend, I will list signals from the most popular market indicators. *

(A full list of the major indicators with signals can be found in my book, All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill).) I’m also the author of the best-selling Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill), and Start Day Trading Now (Adams Media).

AAII survey (4/3/2013)

35.5% bullish. 28.2% bearish.

Sell signal: Over 60% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Investor’s Intelligence (4/3/2013):

52% bullish. 19.4% bearish.

Sell signal: Over 50% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .70

Sell signal: Lower than .75 is a sell.

Buy signal: Higher than 1.0 is a buy (more puts are being bought)

 

VIX: 13.92

Sell signal: Lower than 12.

Buy signal: Over 40.

 

Moving Averages: S&P 500 above all three moving averages

 

Sell signal: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Buy signal: Index crosses over MA.

 

MACD: MACD: MACD is well above the zero line and is slightly below the red 9-day signal line.(Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

 

Sell signal: MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line. MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line.

Buy Signal: MACD line crosses above zero line. MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line.

 

Comment: Market indicators still bullish. Market sentiment not quite as bullish last week, especially among individual investors, which is a positive sign. Last week, there were tons of articles about the coming market correction, but the market defies logic, as always. Friday could have been a disaster but market climbed back in the afternoon. You could make a case for either side: a true correction could be near, or the resilient market climbed a wall of worry. Take your pick because no can predict what will happen next. 

In my latest MarketWatch article on how to survive a correction (http://on.mktw.net/XWKLsN) , Amy Smith from Investor’s Business Daily put the airline stocks on her watch list, especially Alaska Airlines (NYSE: ALK). 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I will list signals from the most popular market indicators. *

(A full list of the major indicators with signals can be found in my book, All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill).) I’m also the author of Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill), and Start Day Trading Now (Adams Media).

AAII survey (3/27/2013)

38.4% bullish. 28.7% bearish.

Sell signal: Over 60% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Investor’s Intelligence (3/27/2013):

49.5% bullish. 19.6% bearish.

Sell signal: Over 50% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .62

Sell signal: Lower than .75 is a sell.

Buy signal: Higher than 1.0 is a buy (more puts are being bought)

 

VIX: 12.70

Sell signal: Lower than 12.

Buy signal: Over 40.

 

Moving Averages: S&P 500 above all three moving averages

 

Sell signal: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Buy signal: Index crosses over MA.

 

MACD: MACD: MACD is well above the zero line and is now even with the red 9-day signal line. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

 

Sell signal: MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line. MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line.

Buy Signal: MACD line crosses above zero line. MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line.

 

Comment: Market indicators still bullish with a few potential warning signals (Sentiment indicators, VIX, and Put/Call ratio). This market has defied expectations and negative news — and frustrated the bears. Cautiously optimistic is the right attitude in this market. I wouldn’t want to be a buy and holder, and yet there are few signs the good times will end anytime soon. But it could. One day the market may actually react to all of the bad news, especially coming from Europe. Will it affect us? No one seems to know…yet. 

Followup: Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL) continues to outperform. Amy Smith fromInvestor’s Business Daily will give her new stock selections later this week. 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I will list signals from the most popular market indicators. *

(A full list of the major indicators with signals can be found in my book, All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill).) I’m also the author of Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill),Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill), and Start Day Trading Now (Adams Media).

AAII survey (3/20/2013)

38.9% bullish. 33.3% bearish.

Sell signal: Over 60% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Investor’s Intelligence (3/20/2013):

47.4% bullish. 18.6% bearish.

Sell signal: Over 50% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .69

Sell signal: Lower than .75 is a sell.

Buy signal: Higher than 1.0 is a buy (more puts are being bought)

 

VIX: 13.57

Sell signal: Lower than 12.

Buy signal: Over 40.

 

Moving Averages: S&P 500 above all three moving averages

 

Sell signal: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Buy signal: Index crosses over MA.

 

MACD: MACD: MACD is well above the zero line but has crossed slightly below the red 9-day signal line. (It’s too early to say if it’s significant but it could be an early sell signal.)

(Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

 

Sell signal: MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line. MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line.

Buy Signal: MACD line crosses above zero line. MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line.

 

Comment: The trend is still up. The market ignored negative news from Cyprus, which was a positive sign. Moving averages bullish but MACD needs to be watched. The bullish sentiment indicators decreased a bit, which is also a positive sign. No correction yet, but be on guard. My view: It’s going to take a major event to change the direction of this bull market. 

Followup: Amy Smith, who mentioned Lumber Liquidators (NYSE: LL) and HomeAway (Nasdaq: AWAY) as stocks that reflect the CANSLIM philosophy, has been right on target. Both stocks (especially LL) have had phenomenal runs since she spoke about them in my MarketWatch columns. In my next column (April), Amy will give her next stock idea. 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I will list signals from the most popular market indicators.

(A full list of the major indicators with signals can be found in my book, All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill).) I’m also the author of Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill),Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill), and Start Day Trading Now (Adams Media).

AAII survey (3/13/2013)

45.4% bullish. 32.0% bearish.

 

Sell signal: Over 60% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Investor’s Intelligence (3/13/2013):

50% bullish. 18.8% bearish.

 

Sell signal: Over 50% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

CBOE Put/Call Ratio: .60

 

Sell signal: Lower than .75 is a sell.

Buy signal: Higher than 1.0 is a buy (more puts are being bought)

 

VIX: 11.30

 

Sell signal: Lower than 12.

Buy signal: Over 40.

 

Moving Averages: S&P 500 above all three moving averages

 

Sell signal: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Buy signal: Index crosses over MA.

 

MACD: MACD above zero line and crossed over signal line

 

Sell signal: MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line. MACD line crosses below 9-day (gray) signal line.

Buy Signal: MACD line crosses above zero line. MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line.

 

Comment: The trend is still your friend until it ends. Moving averages and MACD still bullish but other indicators reflect caution ahead. Bullishness increasing among individual traders and journalists, which is a negative sign: A sharp correction could bring them back to reality.

 

Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I will list signals from the most popular market indicators.

(A full list of the major indicators with signals can be found in my book, All About Market Indicators (McGraw-Hill).)

 

AAII survey (3/6/2013)

31.1% bullish. 38.5% bearish.

 

Sell signal: Over 60% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Investor’s Intelligence (3/6/2013):

44.2% bullish. 21.1% bearish.

 

Sell signal: Over 50% bullish.

Buy signal: Over 50% bearish.

 

Put/Call Ratio: .62

 

Sell signal: Lower than .75 is a sell.

Buy signal: Higher than 1.0 is a buy (more puts are being bought)

 

VIX: 12.59

 

Sell signal: Lower than 12.

Buy signal: Over 40.

 

Moving Averages: S&P 500 above all three moving averages

 

Sell signal: Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Buy signal: Index crosses over MA.

 

MACD: MACD above zero line and crossed over signal line

 

Sell signal: MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line. MACD line crosses below 9-day (gray) signal line.

Buy Signal: MACD line crosses above zero line. MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line.

 

Comment: The trend is your friend until it ends. Moving averages and MACD still going higher but other indicators reflect caution ahead.

 

Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.