Bullish or Bearish? Week of March 13, 2023
Short-term trend (DAILY CHART) – SELLOFF: Last week, SPX plunged from 4045 to 3861, a mind-blowing 184-point selloff, one of the worst selloffs in months. SPX sliced through 4,000 as if it was butter, so 4,000 is now resistance. SPX is below all three moving averages, a negative sign. As you probably know, the catalyst for the selloff was the run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (More on this in the comment section). On Monday morning, futures are FLAT after being much higher earlier. Expect volatility this week.
Long-term trend (WEEKLY CHART) – SELLOFF: SPX on the weekly chart looks like a roller-coaster ride. The three main indexes are still damaged and are now in the danger zone. It will take a long time to repair the damage ---unless there is a miracle.
MACD (DAILY) = NEGATIVE. MACD is below the zero line and below the 9-day signal line.
RSI: (S&P 500) @34.60 (DAILY) OVERSOLD. RSI is telling us that SPX is so oversold that a snapback rally is highly likely. (Note: futures are higher on Sunday night. The question is: Will it last?)
Comment: As mentioned earlier, the Fed's talking points were interrupted by a run on the bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which has been around since the 1980's. This bank helped startup companies as well as Napa Valley wine companies build capital.
One thing led to another based on rumors and just like that, there was a "run on the bank," i.e., everyone wanted to be first in line to withdraw their money. It didn't help that Fed Chairman Powell played hardball last week. Powell said they plan to keep raising interest rates.
As mentioned earlier, although the Fed might let Silicon Valley Bank fail, it promised to reimburse all investor deposits. That kept the markets in rally mode, at least for Sunday night.
This week, it will be about Silicon Valley Bank. Will depositors lose money? Will the Fed let the bank fail? We will find out soon enough. What we are looking at: The crack in the bank sector could spread to other areas, so be very careful out there.