Bullish or Bearish? Week of May 22, 2023
Short-term trend (DAILY CHART) – BULLISH. Last week, SPX rose from 4124 to 4191, a strong 67-point rise. Support was at 4,000 but the market keeps moving well above it. At the rate the market is moving, we will have to adjust support and resistance levels higher. SPX is well above its three major moving averages and pointing higher. Note: SPX is flat on Monday morning.
Long-term trend (WEEKLY CHART) – BULLISH: SPX on the weekly chart is close to a breakout, leaving the double top pattern far behind. A snag in the debt talks could derail the short-term bullish results, but for now, the market is on a roll.
MACD (DAILY) = BULLISH. MACD is above the zero line and slightly above the 9-day signal line. At the moment, all systems are go.
RSI: (S&P 500) @60.34 (DAILY) SLIGHTLY OVERBOUGHT. Not surprisingly, RSI is slightly overbought, reflecting the short-term SPX rally. At 70 or above, it will be extremely overbought, but we're not there yet.
Comment: Even with all of the negative headlines regarding inflation and the debt payment, the market moved higher. This bullish scenario occurred after 45 days of a sideways market (Source: Lance Roberts).
Unless the United States actually defaults on its debt, a highly unlikely scenario, the market is likely headed higher. As you can see by looking at RSI, eventually the indexes will get so overbought that a reversal will be imminent. We're not there yet, but we are getting closer.
It also goes to show how useless it is to listen to opinions. The overall consensus over the last few weeks was "doom and gloom," and yet, the market powered higher. I've seen this happen hundreds of times in the past. That is why it's so important to study indicators, and most importantly, look only at the facts, not opinions.
Bottom line: Unless something dreadful happens this week, the odds are good we are headed even higher.