Bullish or Bearish? Week of September 11, 2023

Short-term trend (DAILY CHART)  NEUTRAL: Last week, SPX dropped from 4515 to 4457, a a 58-point drop. SPX is a few points below its 50-day moving average. For the bullish trend to continue, SPX will need to rise above its 50-day on strong volume. It's hard for short-term traders to find many good setups, but that may change in the near future. Futures are FLAT on Sunday night.

Long-term trend (WEEKLY CHART) – NEUTRAL. After a strong selloff several weeks ago, SPX made a dramatic comeback (as reflected on the weekly chart), but has now stalled out. SPX is still above all three major moving averages, which is a positive sign from a long-term perspective.

MACD (DAILY) = NEUTRAL. MACD is at the 9-day signal line and also at the zero line. It is not giving a strong signal.

RSI: (S&P 500) = 49.29 (DAILY) NEUTRAL. RSI was slightly overbought last week but after a 58-point selloff, it is in a neutral range, which means SPX could go in either direction this week.

Comment: It's been a very long time since all of the indicators line up as neutral, but that's where we are. After last week's selloff (all three major indexes fell), the market is prepared to go in any direction. A number of economic reports will be released this week, including an inflation report, which could move the markets.

Typically, September and October are volatile, but so far, the market has been anything but. Investors are hoping for a end-of-year Christmas rally, and they may get their wish. Most traders, on the other hand, are wishing for volatility, something that the Fed has successfully suppressed for years.

Bottom line: The market is at the starting gate this week and no one knows which direction it will go.