The Long-Term Trader

Each weekend, I study market behavior using sentiment and technical indicators. The goal is to use clues, observation, and indicators to determine if we are in a bullish, bearish, or sideways market environment.

RELEASED: Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill, 2E), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2E), and Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win (Adams Media): http://bit.ly/1bl0ZNk

My latest MarketWatch article: http://goo.gl/SJuzAW

 

AAII survey (7/16/2014)

32.4% Bullish. 28.5% Bearish. 39.2% Neutral.

Bearish: If sentiment is over 50% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 50% bearish.

 

Investors Intelligence (7/15/2014)

56.6% Bullish. 15.1% Bearish

Bearish: If sentiment is over 60% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 60% bearish.

 

VIX: 12.06 (on 7/18/2014)

Bearish: Less than or near 12.

Bullish: Greater than or near 40.

 

Moving Averages (daily): S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and pointing sideways.

Bearish (Short-term Downtrend): Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Bullish (Short-term Uptrend): Index crosses over 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA.

 

MACD (S&P 500): MACD is above zero line, and below its red 9-day signal line. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

Bearish: MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line. MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line.

Bullish: MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line. MACD line crosses above zero line.

 

RSI (S&P 500): RSI is at 58 (on 7/18/2014)

Overbought (i.e. Bearish): When RSI rises to 70 or above.

Oversold (i.e. Bullish): When RSI falls to 30 or below.

Note: RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended time periods.

 

Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield is at 2.48% (on 7/18/2014)

Note: 3.0% or higher is significant (consider selling bond funds as yield rises). 3.5% or higher and risk increases (for bondholders).

 

Money flows out of domestic stock mutual funds: Week of July 16: $1.o billion (Source: ICI)

Note: The week before, $8.8 billion was sold. Therefore, the selling outflow has been reduced during the last week.

 

Analysis: Because of the airplane disaster, the market sold off midweek but recovered. Sentiment is still high but not extreme, except for the VIX, which reflects investor complacency. The market moved into a short-term sideways market, which is why the indicators are indecisive. It’s anyone’s guess where the market will go during the week according to the indicators.

Opinion: It’s a dangerous world and a dangerous market. Volatility returned to the market for a day because of the tragedy in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. By Friday, the market had recovered most of its losses but on anemic volume.

The week began with Janet putting on a good show, although she did receive some tough questions, including from Elizabeth Warren, who left Yellen almost speechless.  Most people hope the Fed knows what it’s doing, but if they don’t, there will be hell to pay.

A good sentiment indicator for me are the negative emails I receive and the comments that are posted. For example, one gentleman wrote and said: “Why don’t you admit that you have been wrong about the market?” In my opinion, these are the type of emails you receive at market tops. The higher the market climbs, the more people believe it will never go down. Some bears are capitulating now, which is also what happens at market tops.

Here’s what I say to those who believe I am wrong: I might be early, but I am not wrong (not yet, that is). This is a dangerous market that is topping out. I cannot predict when it will reverse direction and plunge, but it will. It could be weeks or months. Because of the Fed’s experimental strategies, the market bubble could still grow bigger. The market may experience one final meltup that will force short-sellers to throw in the towel and give up. (Obviously, it’s always possible we could skip the final meltup and have a meltdown.)

As I observe the market, I see many danger signs. First, as the S&P 500 climbs, the number of stocks making new highs is decreasing. That is a red flag. Second, the decreasing volume is another danger sign. Volume is like gasoline for a car. If the market runs out of gas (i.e. volume), eventually it will stop climbing up the hill. However, that could take a long time. Because the Fed is still helping the market, it’s too dangerous to actively short. The most prudent choice is to move to the sidelines in cash. Suggesting that people move to cash infuriates some investors, which is why I get angry emails.

I don’t mind getting out of the market early and making 0 percent. But that is a choice each investor or trader has to make. If you can’t stand to make zero for a few months, then sitting and waiting in cash will be unacceptable to you. But I know that I’m in good company. Financier Bernard Baruch said that he made his fortune by “selling too soon.” And Jesse Livermore said that sitting and waiting for “snapping time” is very difficult for most people.

I also remember in early 2009 when many investors had been wiped out and vowed never to invest in the market again. They were afraid of more losses. I was not using many indicators then but others were. The indicators said that the market was oversold and was a buying opportunity. Few believed the indicators and followed their emotions: fear.

I might be early with my warnings but I’d rather be safe than sorry. A bear market is inevitable, and it’s coming to a stock market near you. As always, I am looking for signals and clues. The first clue is a two-day selloff on higher volume. Until that happens, you might as well go fishing. That day will come eventually, either in a rare crash or a 3 to 5 percent pullback (for starters). I am waiting for “snapping time,” which is the point when the market cracks enough so that the uptrend is disrupted. By then, almost everyone will have noticed something bad has happened. If you agree with me, all you can do is sit and wait, and watch.

Bottom line: Be patient and observe from the sidelines. If you must be in the market, manage risk.

 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I study market behavior using sentiment and technical indicators. The goal is to use clues, observation, and indicators to determine if we are in a bullish, bearish, or sideways market environment.

RELEASED: Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill, 2E), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2E), and Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win (Adams Media): http://bit.ly/1bl0ZNk

My latest MarketWatch article: http://goo.gl/SJuzAW

 

AAII survey (7/9/2014)

37.6% Bullish. 28.7% Bearish.

Bearish: If sentiment is over 50% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 50% bearish.

 

Investors Intelligence (7/8/2014)

60.6% Bullish. 15.2% Bearish

Bearish: If sentiment is over 60% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 60% bearish.

 

VIX: 12.08 (on 7/11/2014)

Bearish: Less than or near 12.

Bullish: Greater than or near 40.

 

Moving Averages (daily): S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and pointing sideways.

Bearish (Short-term Downtrend): Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Bullish (Short-term Uptrend): Index crosses over 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA.

 

MACD (S&P 500): MACD is above zero line, and below its red 9-day signal line. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

Bearish: MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line. MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line.

Bullish: MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line. MACD line crosses above zero line.

 

RSI (S&P 500): RSI is at 57.98 (on 7/11/2014)

Overbought (i.e. Bearish): When RSI rises to 70 or above.

Oversold (i.e. Bullish): When RSI falls to 30 or below.

Note: RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended time periods.

 

Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield is at 2.52% (on 7/11/2014)

Note: 3.0% or higher is significant (consider selling bond funds as yield rises). 3.5% or higher and risk increases (for bondholders).

 

Money flows out of domestic stock mutual funds: Week of July 2: $8.8 billion (Source: ICI)

Note: The week before, only $1.3 billion was sold. There was a significant increase in selling during the last week.

 

Analysis: Sentiment is still on the frothy side, as reflected in Investors Intelligence and the VIX. Other sentiment indicators such as RSI retreated on last week’s pullback. In addition, the uptrend was temporarily halted. This is earnings week, options expiration Friday, and Janet is speaking on Tuesday. The bulls are hopeful that all three will guide the market higher. Prudent traders are still on the sidelines.

Opinion: Because of the above three events, this market has a bullish bias. On the other hand, if earnings disappoint, geopolitical problems escalate, and Janet’s soothing words don’t work, the market could continue selling off. If there is a selloff, we’d be closer to snapping time, i.e. a pivot point that can change the market trend. Right now, it’s too early to confirm, so once again, it’s best to sit tight and wait for evidence.

For the first time in a long time, volatility returned to the market last week. The market has been in a long, boring slumber for months. And for one day, when the market plunged 180 points intraday, short-term traders and day traders woke up. It’s not unusual to have volatility. In fact, a “normal” stock market has lots of volatility. The unusual part is that volatility has been sucked out of the market, which is why investors have become so complacent.

I have no doubt that the market is going through a topping out period. What is unknown right now is when the market rolls over. Although overly bullish investors are blinded by the Fed and the current uptrend, this market will enter a bear market in the future. All we can do is look for clues when that will happen. Because of the actions of the Fed, the bull market uptrend has gone on a lot longer than is typical. But it will end one day, but not yet. I repeat: The uptrend is still intact as I write this but it will end either with a whimper or a bang.

A number of money managers have appeared on TV and said that they wouldn’t be surprised by a 10 percent pullback, which will be followed by a stronger bull market. First, no one can predict how much the market will plunge. And second, after a severe pullback or a major correction, it could be a long while before another bull market appears.

For an idea of what could happen to the stock market, look at the gold ETF, GLD. It was in a long-term bull market when no one wanted to pay a penny more, so it topped out near $180. And now GLD is at $128 with more room to fall. One day GLD will be a fantastic buying opportunity, but not yet. I would not be surprised to see SPX develop a similar chart pattern.

Bottom line: This is an important week. Because of Janet speaking, options expiration Friday, earnings week, and the bullish financial media, the odds favor the bulls this week. However, if the selloff continues from last week because of geopolitical tensions, more failed banks, or poor earnings, all bets are off.

 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I study market behavior using sentiment and technical indicators. The goal is to use clues, observation, and indicators to determine if we are in a bullish, bearish, or sideways market environment.

RELEASED: Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill, 2E), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2E), and Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win (Adams Media): http://bit.ly/1bl0ZNk

My latest MarketWatch article: http://goo.gl/SJuzAW

 

AAII survey (7/2/2014)

38.5% Bullish. 22.4% Bearish. 39.1% Neutral.

Bearish: If sentiment is over 50% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 50% bearish.

 

Investors Intelligence (7/2/2014)

57.6% Bullish. 16.1% Bearish

Bearish: If sentiment is over 60% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 60% bearish.

 

VIX: 10.32 (on 7/5/2014)

Bearish: Less than or near 12.

Bullish: Greater than or near 40.

 

Moving Averages (daily): S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and pointing up.

Bearish (Short-term Downtrend): Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Bullish (Short-term Uptrend): Index crosses over 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA.

 

MACD (S&P 500): MACD is above zero line, and above its red 9-day signal line. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

Bearish: MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line. MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line.

Bullish: MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line. MACD line crosses above zero line.

 

RSI (S&P 500): RSI is at 73.62 (on 7/5/2014)

Overbought (i.e. Bearish): When RSI rises to 70 or above.

Oversold (i.e. Bullish): When RSI falls to 30 or below.

Note: RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended time periods.

 

Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield is at 2.65% (on 7/5/2014).

Note: 3.0% or higher is significant (consider selling bond funds as yield rises). 3.5% or higher and risk increases (for bondholders).

 

Analysis: Just like last week, sentiment indicators are frothy and overbought, which means the bulls think the market will not go down for a few years. Since human nature never changes, eventually the market comes back to earth, and sometimes very abruptly. Technical indicators are still showing the market is in an uptrend. When we look deeper, we see that as the market goes higher, fewer leading stocks are participating. This is a bearish signal. In addition, more Dow stocks are deteriorating, another red flag. To the inexperienced, the market appears strong. In reality, there are cracks.

Opinion: Now that the Dow just went past 17,000, it will be hard to convince most investors of the dangers that lie ahead. More long-time bears have thrown in the towel and given up on their bearish positions. Guess what? This is exactly what happens at market tops!

I know that it is hard to believe the market will ever go down. The cheerleading media, the Fed, Wall Street, and everyone connected to the financial markets are doing everything possible to make you believe the market goes in only one direction: up. They’re wrong. The market will go down, and it will happen sooner than most people think.

If you don’t believe me, try and remember January 2009. That was when the financial world seemed to be over and no one wanted to invest in the market. It was hard to convince anyone to buy at Dow 6,500. The stock market seemed like it would never go up again.

And now, five years later, we’re in a totally different environment. Like the game of Three-Card Monte, while the market reaches all-time highs, leading stocks are selling off, stocks making new highs are shrinking, and the market internals are deteriorating. I know that it is nearly impossible to convince anyone that the bull market might end, but it will, and sooner rather than later. It’s true the Fed has helped the market higher with QE and other financial tools, but that will end.

If you want to play it safe, stay in cash and wait. Do not pay attention to the clowns wearing party hats. They will be the most shocked and amazed when the market turns against them, as it always does. That’s when they say, “Who could have known?” And after the market cracks for the first time, many ultra bullish investors will pretend they were always bearish. Human nature never changes.

Because the market is still going up and might for a little while longer, it’s safer to wait for a bearish pivot or inflection point. At some point in the near future, the market will crack, even if a little. When that happens, I will let you know. Right now, only the most aggressive traders are shorting, and they are feeling some pain (I also have a few short positions but am very comfortable holding them). But the most prudent strategy is to wait on the sidelines and be ready to pounce.

This bull market is nearing an end, and I admit it’s taking longer than I anticipated. Still, the S&P is up 7.42 percent year to date. As I’ve said many times before, be patient and prudent. In my opinion, the downside risk is much greater than what you can potentially make on the upside. Making $0 in cash isn’t ideal, but it’s a lot better than losing money.

Bottom line: Be prepared for some market fireworks in the near future.

 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I study market behavior using sentiment and technical indicators. The goal is to use clues, observation, and indicators to determine if we are in a bullish, bearish, or sideways market environment.

RELEASED: Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill, 2E), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2E), and Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win (Adams Media)http://bit.ly/1bl0ZNk

Note: The markets close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, and are closed on Friday, July 4th.

 

AAII survey (6/25/2014)

37.2% Bullish. 21.1% Bearish. 41.7% Neutral.

Bearish: If sentiment is over 50% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 50% bearish.

 

Investors Intelligence (6/24/2014)

60.2% Bullish. 16.3% Bearish

Bearish: If sentiment is over 60% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 60% bearish.

 

VIX: 11.25 (on 6/27/2014)

Bearish: Less than or near 12.

Bullish: Greater than or near 40.

 

Moving Averages (daily): S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and pointing up.

Bearish (Short-term Downtrend): Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Bullish (Short-term Uptrend): Index crosses over 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA.

 

MACD (S&P 500): MACD is above zero line, but even with its red 9-day signal line. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

Bearish: MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line. MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line.

Bullish: MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line. MACD line crosses above zero line.

 

RSI (S&P 500): RSI is at 64 (on 6/27/2014)

Overbought (i.e. Bearish): When RSI rises to 70 or above.

Oversold (i.e. Bullish): When RSI falls to 30 or below.

Note: RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended time periods.

 

Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield is at 2.53% (on 6/27/2014).

Note: 3.0% or higher is significant (consider selling bond funds as yield rises). 3.5% or higher and risk increases (for bondholders).

 

Analysis: Sentiment indicators are still frothy, the VIX is at historic lows, and volume is low. The market started to sell off a number of times during the week but buyers stepped in to bring (i.e. manipulate) the market higher. Nevertheless, the market seems very heavy, as if it’s struggling to gain traction. The trend is still up, as reflected in the moving averages, a lagging indicator. MACD turned slightly down from last week. Except for the extreme sentiment indicators, we’re not seeing strong technical signals (yet). Bottom line: The market appears to be moving sideways. Eventually, it will have to choose one side or the other.

Opinion: The market acted odd all week. It sold off almost every day, especially at the open, but reversed direction to end each day with mild losses (or gains). The market seems heavy and sluggish, and is having a hard time rallying. Some veteran traders will tell you this is a sign of a weak market. If you listen to them, they will tell you the market is as dangerous as they’ve ever seen.

As you’ll find out soon, many current money managers have never experienced a bear market. These money managers were either in college or selling real estate during the 2007 bear market, and few experienced 2000, 1987, or 1973. History may not repeat itself, but human nature never changes. It will not be different this time.

There is a strong desire by many financial pundits to focus on good news, even when it’s not good. That includes having guests on financial shows who are perpetually bullish. Some of these guests make the following statements:

  1. “The market always comes back.”
  2. “When the market falls, it’s a buying opportunity.”
  3. “A correction of 10 percent is healthy.” (“It’s another buying opportunity.”)
  4. “You should never sell.”

If you believe any of the above statements, then your money may be at risk. Sometimes you have to do the opposite of everyone else, and this is one of those times. No matter how bullish the guests and hosts, no matter how they ignore the evidence, no matter how many times they put a positive spin on the numbers, it’s essential that you are objective. It is not easy in this environment. It seems like everyone is bullish.

Nevertheless, each day I see more red flags, and lately, I’m not the only one. Over the weekend, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), criticized the Fed for its policies, and said that higher interest rates are coming our way. (FYI, this group correctly predicted the 2007 crash.)

In their report, the BIS warned the Fed about being too open about policy, which can make investors feel too “assured.” Here is a quote from the report: “This can encourage further risk-taking, sowing the seeds of an even sharper reaction. Moreover, even if the central bank becomes aware of the forces at work, it may be boxed in, for fear of precipitating exactly the sharp adjustment it is seeking to avoid,” BIS said. “A vicious circle can develop.”

Note: Here’s are two links to articles about the report: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101795041 and http://goo.gl/EahnEe.

Recently, I’ve noticed that more professionals are publicly criticizing the Fed for refusing to acknowledge inflation. Many are concerned the Fed is “behind the curve” and will be slow to raise interest rates as inflation increases. The Fed talks as if they want to increase inflation. (Be careful what you wish for, because you may get it.)

If I am right about this being a dangerous market, and I believe I am, the market is in treacherous territory. The sky is dark, storm clouds are appearing, and it’s only a matter of time before a thunderstorm (or hurricane) arrives. I am in awe that we have not had a significant correction for so long. Those who study market history know that the longer we go without a correction, the farther the market will drop.

There will be some extremely profitable opportunities in the future, primarily on the short side. This low volatile, sideways market can’t continue indefinitely. When snapping time occurs, and the market finally breaks, I’ll be ready (and I hope you are, too). Meanwhile, it can get boring while you’re waiting for the market to go somewhere. But patience is exactly what is needed to survive.

When the herd finally realizes the market is in trouble, the mad rush out of the exit doors will be spectacular. And that is why it’s essential you prepare for worst-case scenarios now before everyone else wakes up. By then it could be too late.

 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.

Each weekend, I study market behavior using sentiment and technical indicators. The goal is to use clues, observation, and indicators to determine if we are in a bullish, bearish, or sideways market environment.

JUST RELEASED: Understanding Options (McGraw-Hill, 2E), Understanding Stocks (McGraw-Hill, 2E), and Predict the Next Bull or Bear Market and Win (Adams Media): http://bit.ly/1bl0ZNk

 

AAII survey (6/18/2014)

35.2% Bullish. 24.1% Bearish. 40.7% Neutral.

Bearish: If sentiment is over 50% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 50% bearish.

 

Investors Intelligence (6/17/2014)

61.4% Bullish. 16.3% Bearish

Bearish: If sentiment is over 60% bullish.

Bullish: If sentiment is over 60% bearish.

 

VIX: 10.85 (on 6/20/2014)

Bearish: Less than or near 12.

Bullish: Greater than or near 40.

 

Moving Averages (daily): S&P 500 is above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and pointing up.

Bearish (Short-term Downtrend): Index crosses below 50-, 100-, or 200-day MA.

Bullish (Short-term Uptrend): Index crosses over 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA.

 

MACD (S&P 500): MACD is above zero line, and above its red 9-day signal line. (Note: I’m using the settings, 19,39,9, recommended by Gerald Appel, MACD’s creator.)

Bearish: MACD line crosses below 9-day (red or gray) signal line. MACD line (black line) crosses below zero line.

Bullish: MACD line crosses above 9-day signal line. MACD line crosses above zero line.

 

RSI (S&P 500): RSI is at 71 (on 6/20/2014)

Overbought (i.e. Bearish): When RSI rises to 70 or above.

Oversold (i.e. Bullish): When RSI falls to 30 or below.

Note: RSI can remain overbought or oversold for extended time periods.

 

Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield is at 2.62% (on 6/20/2014).

Note: 3.0% or higher is significant (consider selling bond funds as yield rises). 3.5% or higher and risk increases (for bondholders).

 

Analysis: The sentiment indicators are still in the exuberant stage, and will remain there until the market snaps. Professional financial writers are the most bullish, while retail investors are more neutral than bullish. I assume many investors will try and get out if the market goes south. The VIX is at historic lows, which reflects extreme complacency. RSI tells us the market is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback. And yet, the market continues to go higher (with a little help from the Fed). The trend is still up (which is why the bulls are so confident), but fewer and fewer stocks are joining the party. There are many danger signals even as the market climbs higher.

Opinion: Imagine how it must have felt like in 1929 when the market went up high and fast, the economy seemed to be on fire, and the financial experts of the day kept predicting the market was unstoppable. And yet, Jesse Livermore saw that fewer and fewer stocks were participating in the rally, and in fact were deteriorating. Livermore kept adding to his short positions, which caused him great financial pain, but he was certain the market was going to snap. Many days, while he waited for the day of reckoning, he went fishing. He said that it’s not hard to be right about the market. The hardest part is having the patience to wait until the market comes back to its senses. When the market finally broke in 1929, first slowly, and then with a huge crash, Livermore made more money than he ever did in his life. Even he was shocked by how fast and far the market went down.

In 2014, we have a market that is being talked higher by the Fed using a variety of tools and programs, some which we know about (low interest rates), and others we don’t know about. Last week, Janet threw a bit more gasoline on the market, and it responded with a 100 point rally (.73%). I found it interesting that the market did not have a strong followup rally. In my opinion, this market is running out of steam, although the Fed is doing everything in its power to keep the party going (with help from high frequency traders and financial writers).

Everything that I know about the market tells me it’s in trouble. Although I cannot predict the time or day when the first break will occur, it’s coming. The bulls have been lulled to believe the market is in a permanent plateau. The few bears that still remain are frustrated that the market seems unstoppable. One of my bearish acquaintances (who is not a professional) angrily said the market could remain levitated for years. Perhaps, I told him, but I don’t think so.

In fact, if you look at the Dow stocks, more and more are slowly turning negative. Like a game of Three-Card Monte, most investors are looking in the wrong place for the money card. Look underneath the hood, not at the “all-time” highs. For your information, the Nasdaq just made a 14-year high. On the other hand, volume is weak, complacency is high, the internals are deteroriating, and the herd is a little too bullish. It takes a tremendous amount of patience to wait until the market snaps. More than likely, the first crack will come out of nowhere. Until then, wait.  For me, being primarily in cash is the most prudent place to be. Keep in mind that most people, including most pros, disagree with me. They are all in.

This is a market that can lull you to sleep as it slowly climbs higher. It is deceptively dangerous because few realize their portfolios are vulnerable. The higher and longer the market climbs, the more risky it becomes. Margin will increase, the Fed will seem in control of the market, inflation will slowly creep higher, and the bubble will grow bigger.  Unfortunately for bears, this could go on for a while longer, so be prepared to wait.

Bottom line: This is not going to end well.

 

* Note: These signals are not actionable trades, but only guidelines. Always use other indicators, and your own research, to confirm before buying or selling.