The Long-Term Trader

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators: 

Technical indicators

S&P 500 (daily chart) is below its 50-day MA and pointing down = Bearish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly above the zero line and pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support is 2,122 (100-day MA), 2,050, and 2,000. 

 

Sentiment indicators

II survey: (Sept. 13) 49% Bulls; 22.6% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Sept. 14): 27.9% Bulls; 35.9% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 15.37 = Neutral

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 42.91 = Neutral

 

Comment: Market is down but not out. The Fed and BOJ have market-moving meetings and statements this week. It’s a good idea to sit on the sidelines and watch to see if market continues to retreat, or if the central bank can keep markets calm. The odds are good volatility will continue during the week. Nevertheless, market typically moves higher right before and during Fed meeting. 

To summarize, here are the technical and sentiment indicators from Friday’s close: 

Technical indicators

S&P 500 is below its 50-day moving average and pointing down = Bearish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 support is 2,120 (100-day moving average), 2,050, and 2,000 (i.e. 10% correction). 

Sentiment indicators

II survey: (Sept. 6) 52.5% Bulls; 22.8% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Sept. 7): 29.8% Bulls; 28.5% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 17.50 = Neutral

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 31.94 = Oversold

Comment: What a difference a day makes! It’s too early to proclaim a trend change as this could be only a one-day pullback. I used some cash to probe the market with SPY put options. I’m looking for clues, i.e. if volatility continues to spike, if there is an intraday reversal, and if market continues to sell off at end of day. Prepare to go long if selloff is extreme. 

My most recent MarketWatch column is here: goo.gl/vJpVya

 

To summarize, here are the technical and sentiment indicators from Friday’s close: 

Technical indicators

S&P 500 SPX, +0.42%  is above its moving averages but moving sideways = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

S&P 500 is near support @ 2,170 = Neutral (2,150 next support level)

Sentiment indicators

II survey: (Aug. 30) 55.9% Bulls; 20.6% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Aug. 31): 28.6% Bulls; 31.5% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.98 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 55.25 = Neutral

Here are the results of the technical and sentiment indicators for the week of August 29, 2016:

Technical Indicators

S&P 500 is above its moving averages but pointing down = Neutral

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly below its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 is near support @ 2,170 = Neutral (2,150 next support level)

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Aug. 23) 56.7% Bulls; 20.2% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (Aug. 24): 29.4% Bulls; 29.6% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 13.65 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 49.62 = Neutral

Comment: S&P 500 showing signs of stress. Observe market closely this week. 

Here are the results of the technical and sentiment indicators for the week of August 22, 2016: 

Technical Indicators

S&P 500 is above its moving averages = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 is above support @ 2,150 = Bullish

 

Sentiment Indicators

II survey: (Aug. 16) 56.2% Bulls; 20.0% Bears = Bearish 

AAII survey: (Aug. 17): 35.6% Bulls; 26.4% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 11.34 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 59.40 = Neutral