The Weekly Trader

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly above its signal line = Bullish

Observe: S&P 500 support @ 2400

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (May 23): 51.9% Bulls; 18.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (May 24): 32.9% Bulls; 30.0% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 9.81= Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 63.05 = Near overbought

Comment: The bull market continues as the S&P surpassed 2400, although not with strong volume or conviction. Nevertheless, the market is in an uptrend, and if there is a pullback, the only strategy that is working is “buy the dip.” One day buying the dip won’t work, but until that day comes, you follow the trend. It’s true we’re getting ever closer to a correction (and bear market), but the inevitable smash could be months away, and perhaps even next year. Meanwhile, every pullback has been a buying opportunity. The ridiculously low VIX is a warning sign, and RSI is near overbought. Otherwise, it looks like blue skies ahead…….(for now).

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish

Observe: S&P 500 resistance @ 2400

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (May 16): 58.1% Bulls; 17.1% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (May 17): 23.9% Bulls; 34.3% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 12.04 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 51.05 = Neutral

Comment: Last week was quite interesting as volatility appeared, if only for a day or two. This week I have my eye on the S&P 500. There is major resistance at 2400. If the S&P can blow past 2400 on heavy volume, it would be bullish. On the other hand, if the S&P is unable to surpass 2400 for any length of time, the chances are good there will be a major “topping out” reversal, likely within the next one to two weeks. This kind of market is dangerous because sudden reversals often occur in either direction. Nevertheless, my opinion is meaningless. Only the market is right so be alert. As I recommended over the last few weeks and months, have a healthy amount of cash on the side.

Bottom line: Now is the time to pay close attention to the market.

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is even with its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2368 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (May 9): 58.7% Bulls; 17.3% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (May 10): 32.7% Bulls; 30.2% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 10.40 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 58.16 = Neutral

Comment: The market has been flat and boring, and very deceiving. The VIX has been in the basement, breaking a number of records for being so low for so long. If you are trading, all you can do is wait for volatility to appear, and it will one day. It could be days or weeks, or longer, but when volatility appears, traders will get back to work again.

Many investors, however, are feeling pretty confident. Margin levels are at all-time highs and index funds are more popular than ever. So far, the strategy is working. A few experts have warned that the market is in the danger zone, but few are listening. 

When I look at the overall market, I see the danger signs, which is why I like holding a healthy amount of cash. I am also patient enough to wait for the market to make up its mind which way it will go, and for volatility to return. In fact, I’m curious how long this low-volatility environment can continue. Hint: Not indefinitely. Until then, be careful out there.

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its signal line = Bullish

S&P 500 support @ 2366 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (May 2): 58.5% Bulls; 17.9% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (May 3): 38.1% Bulls; 29.9% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 10.57 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 65.55 = Bearish

Comment: The S&P 500 is at the upper range with resistance at 2400, a few points away. Many technical indicators are bullish while sentiment indicators are warning that the crowd has become overconfident. Nevertheless, if the S&P breaks through resistance, the bulls remain in control. However, the odds are that the market retreats, and will either move sideways or down during the week. Last week, volatility was crushed as the market moved sideways. In a challenging market like this, it’s suggested you keep money on the side to take advantage of extreme conditions, if any.

Here are the latest technical and sentiment indicators:

Technical Indicators (daily chart)

S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above its zero line = Bullish

MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is slightly above its signal line = Neutral

S&P 500 support @ 2363 (50-day moving average)

 

Sentiment Indicators (+RSI)

II survey: (April 25): 54.7% Bulls; 17.9% Bears = Bearish

AAII survey: (April 26): 38.1% Bulls; 31.7% Bears = Neutral

VIX: @ 10.82 = Bearish

RSI: (S&P 500) @ 60.57 = Neutral

Comment: Last week, we had a two-day rally, which ran out of gas midweek. With the Fed on tap to speak this week, we might get increased volatility. For an excellent, detailed analysis of the current market, read Lance Robert’s most recent column here: goo.gl/4A1eWq