The Weekly Trader


Bullish or Bearish? Week of April 8, 2024 (Updated)

Welcome to my blog and thanks for reading my weekly analysis of the stock market.

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Short-term trend (DAILY CHART)   NEUTRAL: Last week, SPX fell from 5254 to 5204, a 50-point retreat. However, it could have been a lot worse. On Thursday, the indexes plunged because of an inflation scare. That's when bullish investors held their breath, hoping it was a one-day wonder. On Friday, the bulls' wishes came true. The market recovered much of their losses the next day as the algos and buy-the-dippers bought anything that moved. However, this also looks like a failed rally, and if so, expect more pain in the future. Unfortunately, it's too early to know for sure. Note: Futures are FLAT on Monday morning.

Long-term trend (WEEKLY CHART) – NEUTRAL: SPX doesn't look quite as strong as a few weeks ago, but it did recover, although without rallying to the same level (i.e., failed rally).

MACD (DAILY) = NEUTRAL: MACD is above the zero line and fell well below the 9-day signal line. That pullback is very interesting, one that should be watched.

RSI: (S&P 500) = 55.91 (DAILY) NEUTRAL: RSI fell from overbought levels early last week to neutral. There are no significant signals at this time from RSI.

Comment: SPX took a hit last week but was saved somewhat by Friday's snapback rally (due to a strong jobs report, or so they say). Now that the market indicators are pointing to a neutral reading, it is unknown which direction the market will go this week . There are no useful clues at this time.

Inflation gave investors a bit of a scare last week, but the snapback rally calmed investor's fears. It's not always going to be like that. One day the market will fall and the next day, it will fall even more. There is no reason to fret about that day, but be aware it's coming.

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