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Suze Orman is a two-time Emmy Award–winning television host and the author of ten consecutive New York Times bestsellers on personal finance. She has been named twice to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people and is widely recognized for her work in financial education.

She currently hosts The Women and Money Podcast, where she discusses personal finance topics, and is the co-founder of SecureSave, a company focused on workplace emergency savings programs. Orman’s career spans television, publishing, and entrepreneurship, with an emphasis on helping individuals manage money and plan for financial security.

When Orman was on Fast Money (CNBC) on October 24, 2023, she recommended Palantir (PLTR), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), and Broadcom (AVGO). Since then, Palantir has soared over 848%, with Microsoft and Shopify up 54% and 166% and Broadcom up 235%. 

 In this recent interview, edited for length and clarity, Orman shares her top stock picks, her outlook for the market in August and September, the biggest investment mistake she’s made, and her take on cryptocurrencies. 

MarketWatch: Can you name some of the stocks and investments you like right now?

Orman: I continue to favor large technology companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Broadcom (AVGO). Palantir (PLTR) is my favorite stock, which I’ve followed closely, even though it’s controversial. I first recommended it when it was around $7 based on a suggestion from financial strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. Beyond those big names, I own and still love Apple (AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), IonQ (IONQ), and Coinbase (COIN). I also like GE Vernova (GEV), which I started buying around $100 to $150, and is now over $600. I’d also look at JPMorgan (JPM). 

For those who would rather own ETFs rather than individual stocks, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) offers a nice overall participation and allows for partaking in my favorite stock ETFs —VanEck Semiconductor (SMH) can be a good choice. Also, the ETF for bitcoin, iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), is for a small part of your portfolio. For REITs, I like CareTrust (CTRE), but remember that REITS should be held in retirement accounts. 

MarketWatch: For everyday investors, what’s a sensible way to allocate their money right now if they are looking for long-term growth? 

Orman: One simple approach is to dollar cost average and allocate a total of 50% into a broad index fund such as VOO. With the rest, you could divide your money among a handful of strong individual names such as Microsoft, Palantir, Meta, Apple, COST, WMT, Gilead, COIN, VOO, SMH, XBI, and IBIT FOR ETFS. That way, you’re diversified between the overall market and leading companies, rather than putting everything in one place. My broader message is that people should not be investing large sums all at once. Dollar cost average and invest for the long term, and focus on companies or assets you truly understand. 

MarketWatch: Do you have any caveats for investors? 

Orman: Yes, other than your retirement account, do not put one penny in the stock market that you might need within the next five years. Money that you need within five years is not money that belongs in the stock market, period. 

MarketWatch: Do you have any predictions for the stock market? 

Orman: Overall, the market is strong. I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 cross over 7,000 by the end of the year. This is not your dot-com bubble. 

MarketWatch: Looking back, is there an investing mistake you regret or advice you wish you could take back?

Orman: The biggest mistake I’ve made was thinking I was smart just because I doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled my money, and then selling too soon. I used to believe that when a stock went from $7 to $50, like Palantir, it couldn’t possibly go higher, so I sold, only to watch it keep climbing. Then I’d have to buy back in at $70, which made no sense. The same thing happened with Amazon and Apple. If I had just held on from the beginning and continued to dollar cost average, the gains would have been extraordinary. That doesn’t mean you never sell. 

MarketWatch: You’ve mentioned crypto before. What are your thoughts on bitcoin and how do they fit into a retirement strategy?

Orman: With crypto, there’s a place for it, but only in moderation. Personally, I’d stick to bitcoin ETFs from well-known firms such as BlackRock. I don’t have a problem with that, but I’d want limits, no more than 5% of your portfolio. Otherwise, some people, especially younger investors, might go all-in. Are you nuts? That’s too risky.

MarketWatch: What is your outlook on bitcoin? 

Orman: Bitcoin has become too mainstream to ignore. Big banks such as JPMorgan are involved, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin climb higher over time, perhaps $140,000 or $170,000 one day. But don’t forget the risks. If you buy bitcoin directly, you can make more than an ETF, but then you have to worry about storage and trust, especially after FTX collapsed. That’s why I’d rather use ETFs, or even stocks like Strategy (MSTR), which holds a lot of bitcoin on its balance sheet. Crypto can be part of a diversified portfolio, but it should never be your whole portfolio. 

MarketWatch: Some people argue that the market is manipulated or at least heavily influenced by large players. Do you think that’s true?

Orman: What I see is that when traders miss out and there’s trillions of dollars still sitting on the sidelines, the fear of missing out (FOMO) kicks in. At some point, the market tends to pull back, whether that’s natural or influenced, I can’t say for sure. But what often happens is that a sell-off shakes out the weaker hands of people who get scared when prices dip. That, in turn, creates an opportunity for bigger money to step in and drive the market even higher.

MarketWatch: You’ve often spoken about retirement accounts. Do you prefer a traditional retirement account or a Roth IRA? 

Orman:  If you’re eligible, I will always tell you: choose a Roth over a traditional. Yes, with a traditional 401(k), 403b, or Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), your money compounds tax-deferred, but don’t fool yourself. It’s not just compounding for you. It’s compounding for Uncle Sam, too. You’ve literally made him your partner, and one day, he’ll want his share.

In my opinion, the biggest mistake you can make with your retirement accounts is not having them in Roths. With a Roth, you pay taxes upfront—end of story. Every single penny of growth, and every single withdrawal in retirement, is yours to keep. Tax-free. Forever. As well as your beneficiaries. 

And don’t think you’re locked out just because of income limits. Regardless of what you earn, there are always ways to get money into Roth accounts. If you don’t, are you nuts? In the end, with a traditional retirement account, Uncle Sam will take a big bite out of your retirement savings and it will affect taxation on Social Security, Medicare Part B premiums, and your Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). This is not true in a Roth, so don't make Uncle Sam your partner. (Editor note: If you want to hear more details, listen to Orman's April 21, 2024 podcast.) 

MarketWatch: What final piece of advice would you give investors?

Orman: Always trust yourself more than you trust others. After all, what happens to your money directly affects the quality of your life, not your financial advisor's life, insurance agent’s life, banker's life, but your life. Finally, don't let your fear of loss keep you from incredible gains. 

Michael Sincere is the author of books including “Understanding Stocks,” “Understanding Options," and “Help Your Child Build Wealth.”

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Lance Roberts is a seasoned financial strategist and economist with over 30 years of experience in investment management, private banking, and venture capital. He currently serves as Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist at RIA Advisors, where he leads market research and portfolio strategy. Roberts is also the editor of the widely followed Real Investment Report and host of The Real Investment Show, offering daily and weekly commentary on macroeconomic trends, financial markets, and investment strategy.

 Known for his precise, and pragmatic analysis, Roberts provides practical investment guidance using a variety of methods and tools. Through his writing, broadcasts, and public speaking, Roberts has built a reputation as a respected voice for both individual and institutional investors seeking clarity amid market volatility. 

MarketWatch: What are the most significant risks or red flags you see in the current market environment?

Roberts: The market is bullish, but I’m concerned we’re getting set up for another pullback sometime this year. Many institutions are still underweight equities and are not chasing the rally at this moment. In terms of sentiment, they are not back at the very bullish levels of exuberance. Retail investors, however, are taking on an enormous level of speculative risk with call option volumes at record levels and inflows into leveraged ETF accelerating. There’s a bit of speculative exuberance. The market is currently approaching a point where an unexpected event, such as Powell’s resignation, could prompt the market to reassess forward earnings and lead to a correction in valuation. 

MarketWatch: So you are expecting a market correction later this year?

Roberts: I think there's a good setup that the market can rally here for the next month or so on earnings, but August is the deadline on tariffs. If Trump suddenly reimplements 38% tariffs, and if the overbought, extended market deviates from the 200-day moving average, there’s some good technical fuel for a 5% or 6% correction in late August or early September. Based on technical indicators, we should at least retest the 200-day MA at some point. That would be about 5% or 6% lower than our current level. 

MarketWatch: Is there anything happening in the market that keeps you up at night?

Roberts: Everything keeps me up at night, but there are two things worth watching right now. I don't think there are too many risks at the moment, but I believe earnings estimates are way too low going into this quarter. It’s the third and fourth quarter that keeps me up at night because if you take a look at earnings estimates for Q3 and Q4, they rocket to the moon. They are expecting 16% growth in the third quarter. I don't know where they're expecting this 16% economic surge to support that. There’s a big disconnect between economic activity and the markets right now. 

MarketWatch: Are there any stocks you are avoiding right now? 

Roberts: The stocks I'm avoiding right now are the ones primarily subject to tariffs. For instance, I’ve owned Apple (AAPL) for ten years, but I sold it this year because it’s lagging in the AI development race. Apple also has significant exposure and risk to tariffs because of their exposure to China’s development. We sold Apple and took a position in Meta (META) due to its growing revenues. We just swapped the portfolio. Apple is an example of a company that I'm trying to avoid right now. 

MarketWatch: What’s your advice for managing portfolio risk in this kind of market?

Roberts: The first thing not to do is to sell everything because if you move to cash, the market often keeps rallying. Back in March, we were at all-time highs and everyone was super bullish. We’re now back at those levels again. Here is my recommendation: If you owned stocks that have performed exceptionally well, consider taking some profits. That doesn’t mean to sell everything. However, if your normal position is 4% or 5%, trim it back to 3%. Raise some cash. Do you own a weak stock in a strong market? If that’s the case, then sell your laggards. If it’s a strong company that’s not participating right now because it’s out of favor, consider adding to the position. It’s about looking at your portfolio and rebalancing your risk. 

MarketWatch: How should investors think about risk during a bull market?

Roberts: What people don’t realize is they often take on more risk in a bull market than they realize, and that risk shows up when markets decline. Risk is not about how much money you make when the market goes up. It’s how much you lose when the market goes down. Investors need to take an honest assessment of their personality and think: if the markets decline by 10% tomorrow, what would I do? Would you panic and sell everything? If you don’t know that answer, then think about how you felt in April, and you’ll have a better idea of where you are. 

MarketWatch: Why hasn’t the market reacted more negatively to the latest round of tariff news?

Roberts: I tell clients not to worry about the headlines so much. Take a step back and consider how the tariff headlines impact earnings for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), or Apple. If it doesn’t have a major impact on forward earnings, then there’s no need for the market to reassess valuations. So, the market is back to being very exuberant again because they are betting that the tariffs won’t exceed 10% or 12%. 

MarketWatch: Why do you think the Fed, not tariffs, poses a greater risk to the market right now?

Roberts: The market has a handle on the tariffs. Powell has been saying that tariffs will cause inflation. It may cause inflation in some aspects. For example, a computer might cost more because it was manufactured in China, but those aren’t things you buy every day. However, the reason tariffs aren’t causing a significant surge in CPI is that housing accounts for 40% of it, and tariffs do not impact housing. Its services that affect CPI.  In the economy, services account for 80 percent, while manufacturing accounts for 20 percent. The only people paying tariffs are producers of products. Widgets from China sold at Walmart are not a major factor in the CPI. 

MarketWatch: What do you think the Fed is getting wrong about the current economic data?

Roberts: The Fed, as smart as they are, gets trapped into these mental biases, and they allow that to impact their forward thinking. In my opinion, employment’s okay, but it’s slowing down. We are seeing some weakness in employment, not only in the BLS report, which has weakened, but also in the ISM manufacturing report. The employment indexes are also showing a lot of weakness. I think the Fed should have cut at the last meeting, not aggressively, but cut 25 basis points, and see how things are going. 

MarketWatch: What risks does Powell face if he waits too long to cut rates? Shouldn’t he be cutting now?  

Roberts: He’s worried that if he cuts rates, it will cause inflation. If something happens, for example, if Trump takes a particularly aggressive stance on tariffs, it could cause the economy to buckle. And all of a sudden, Powell is having to cut a lot more aggressively, and markets don’t like that. The market is okay with a controlled 25-point basis point, but they don’t like aggressive cuts. If Powell started to cut by 50 basis points, then you know that something broke in the market. 

MarketWatch: How could tensions between Trump and the Fed impact the markets?

Roberts: The two risks in the next two months are that Powell is late in cutting rates, and the battle between him and the White House accelerates. My concern is that if Powell quits or is forced out of office, the markets may not like it. The market relies on the Fed’s independence. 

MarketWatch: What stocks do you see as long-term winners?

Roberts: If you’re investing in AI, I like Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which is extremely overbought right now, so I’d wait for a pullback. You have to own Nvidia, but you must wait for a pullback. It’s very extended. Keep in mind that the companies we'll be talking about ten years from now won't be these guys, just like it was during the .com boom.

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Introduction

David Booth is a visionary investor and the co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), a firm he launched in 1981 to bring academic finance into real-world investing. Educated under Nobel laureate Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago, Booth became a pioneer of evidence-based, systematic investing, helping to popularize passive strategies.  

Over the 20 years ending September 2024, 84% of DFA’s U.S. funds outperformed their benchmarks, compared to just 17% of typical active funds. Recent performance includes returns of 15.98% over 1 year, 9.09% annualized over 3 years, 15.87% over 5 years, and 7.54% over 10 years. 

Booth is also the central figure in the new documentary, Tune Out the Noise, directed by Oscar-winner Errol Morris. The film explores how academic research at the University of Chicago transformed financial markets, focusing on DFA’s founding and evolution.

Featuring Nobel laureates such as Fama, Myron Scholes, and Robert C. Merton, the film focuses on the power of data-driven investing, risk management, and behavioral discipline. The film tells the story of Booth’s impact and shows how research and science still play a big role in how he invests today.

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Booth discusses his investing philosophy, how his firm seeks to outperform market indexes, and what most investors misunderstand about the stock market.

MarketWatch: In the documentary, Tune Out the Noise, you describe your work as a pursuit of truth. What did you mean by that? 

Booth: A lot of things that people assumed was a virtue didn’t turn out to be true. The basic one is that anybody can beat the market if they just pay attention and work hard. That turned out not to be true. The pursuit of truth involves a lot of research which gives you insights from the past that hopefully are helpful going forward. People want the absolute truth but I’m afraid that’s just not available when talking about investments. We do our best analysis on the way markets work, and in our view, we tell you the best way to go forward. However, reasonable people can have different opinions. 

MarketWatch: What’s the biggest myth investors believe about who really wins in the market? 

Booth: Most people think of themselves as outsiders, while the insiders make all the money. That’s just not the case. The evidence is that professional money managers don’t do any better than the market. That should be a revelation to people. In every phase of life, if you work harder and smarter, you’ll probably do better than the guy down the street, but that’s not true when it comes to picking stocks. Because the market knows more than you, it can be very costly to try to bet against it. Once you accept that the market is your friend, life gets a lot easier. There is less second guessing. 

MarketWatch: Do you have a forecast for the current market environment?

Booth: Many people are comfortable making a forecast but there’s not much evidence that people can forecast or predict market returns. Too often, people feel like every year they have to make a change. This year is a good example of why just calming down and staying the course is frequently the best solution. We had a lot of volatility, lots of ups and downs. A lot of people got whipsawed trying to time the market. 

MarketWatch: Do you ever make changes to your strategy based on what the market is doing? 

Booth: We are constantly revising our long-term research to see if the evidence we had before is holding. Maybe we learned something different that we need to include in our long-term strategy. Occasionally, we change our long-term allocations, but we never make changes over the short term. 

MarketWatch: In a market full of uncertainty, what gives you confidence that staying invested for the long term still works?

Booth: Some people call me an optimist. What has bailed us out over the long haul is basic human ingenuity. It’s always worked in the past and I don’t see any reason why it won’t bail us out in the future. What I mean is that people want to make their lives better and the lives of their family better. If something bad happens to them, they don’t sit there and take it. They try to get back on track. That’s what leads to all this ingenuity and progress. It’s frequently three steps forward and two steps backward, but I don’t see a reason why it should not be anything other than optimistic over the long term. 

MarketWatch: How does that principle shape the way Dimensional approaches markets differently than traditional active managers?

Booth: We start with the evidence. Is there really any compelling evidence that you should try to time short term moves in the market? If you look at professional money managers, there’s no compelling evidence they can time short term moves. And yet, individuals think they can go out and time short term moves in the market rather than our approach, which is to take advantage of how markets work. 

MarketWatch: You don’t try to outguess the market, but you also aren’t a traditional indexer. How do you define your approach? 

Booth: Our view is that indexing is a rather mechanical and inflexible approach to investing that leaves money on the table. We’ve developed ways of beating index funds. We try not to outguess the market but work with market mechanisms that can add value to indexing. But it’s close to indexing. 

MarketWatch: How does your fund add value beyond traditional index funds?

Booth: We built our firm on the efficient market hypothesis of Gene Fama, a Nobel Laureate who is one of our founders and directors. It doesn’t make sense to try and outguess the market, but as a professional money manager, there are some things we can do to add value over indexing. For example, while many indexes rebalance as infrequently as once or twice a year, staying flexible allows us to buy and sell securities every day based on up-to-date information on what can improve returns. That flexibility has been a key source of value, because it allows us to seek better prices than index funds may get and helps us avoid holding stocks with lower expected returns. 

MarketWatch: What’s the most sensible way for long-term investors to participate? 

Booth: In the US stock market, thousands if not millions of investors are entering the market every day. There are huge trading volumes. On both sides of the trade are very sophisticated investors with differences of opinion. I’d rather rely on the overall wisdom of crowds, on the collective judgement about pricing, and not try to guess the market. When I go home at night, I’d rather spend more time playing with the kids than trying to figure out what’s going to happen with the market the next day. 

MarketWatch: Do you see a reason why individuals should choose individual stocks? 

Booth: I haven’t come up with one yet and I’ve been doing this for almost 56 years. It’s silly because the market does a good job of setting prices. Why get in the middle of that when there’s no evidence that you know more than the pros. I know that for some people, picking stocks is fun. If you get a kick out of it, then pick a few names as long as you don’t bet the ranch on it and hurt yourself too badly. I don’t view that as serious investing. That’s entertainment. Many people are attracted to what we think of as the noise. I don’t understand how a casual investor can think they can take advantage of pricing mistakes. Why do they think they can do that? 

MarketWatch: What’s the single most important takeaway you’d want long-term investors to remember from your experience?

Booth: Our mission is to try to help people understand the market and how it works. If you understand how it works, you’ll be more likely to invest. Over the long haul, it’s really important for people to start investing early. The power of compounding means that a 10% return on your investment each year—similar to the stock market’s historical annualized average—would double your money every seven years. Find an investment approach you can stick with rather than trying to time all of the short term moves in the market.

MarketWatch: What was your relationship with John Bogle like in the early days?

Booth: John was a hero. He helped us get started. When we started our firm, Vanguard did all of our back office and administrative activities for us such as reconciling trades and making sure dividends and interest payments were collected. Running a mutual fund company is very complex. Eventually, we started doing it on our own. I went to work at Wells Fargo and they were one of the pioneers of indexing as well. We all talked to each other and tried to get these ideas out. This is what I mean by the pursuit of truth. 

MarketWatch: In the movie, Tune Out the Noise, you said you learned a lot from selling shoes. What lessons did you learn? 

Booth: I put myself through school selling shoes, and it was a commission-based system. There was a huge incentive to try and make a sale. I realized when I went home at night, I wanted to feel good about myself. I wouldn’t feel good about myself if I tried to sell a pair of shoes that didn’t fit or was the wrong color. That’s the basis of our firm. 

Michael Sincere is the author of “Understanding Stocks,” “Understanding Options” and “Help Your Child Build Wealth.”

LINK TO PUBLISHED ARTICLE: Link to Article

Introduction

Mark Minervini is one of America’s most accomplished stock traders, known for his disciplined approach, consistently high returns, and proprietary Specific Entry Point Analysis (SEPA) methodology. With over 40 years of market experience, he’s advised hedge funds, won the U.S. Investing Championship with 155% returns in 1997 and a record 334.8% in 2021. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Stock Market Wizards. Through his books and mentorship programs, Minervini continues to train traders worldwide.

In this recent interview—edited for length and clarity—Minervini shares his insights on risk management, discipline, how he has generated consistent profits over decades, his outlook on the current U.S. stock market, and some of the stocks he’s currently buying.

MarketWatch: What do you think of the economy?   

Minervini: Right now, we’re in an optimal economic growth period that is good for a sustained bull market. It’s a Goldilocks economy. You have 2% to 3% real GDP growth, which is a really good environment for a sustained bull market — it’s not strong enough to have inflation, and we’re not tipping into a recession. On May 8, our firm put out a buy signal for the S&P 500. That’s when we went 100% into the S&P 500. 

MarketWatch: With the recent U.S. strikes on Iran on June 21, have you made any adjustments to your short-term trading strategy?

Minervini: The strikes on Iran may create short-term volatility in oil and equities, but history shows markets often rebound within 6 to 12 months. While oil prices above $80 could weigh on sentiment, with the S&P 500 still in a confirmed uptrend and our May 8 buy signal intact, I view any pullbacks as buying opportunities. Expect near-term volatility—but don’t lose sight of the broader trend. Our bottom-up approach remains driven by individual stock behavior, not headlines. 

MarketWatch: What else could put pressure on the market?  

Minervini: We have a lot of uncertainty right now with the tariffs, oil, and Iran. Oil just had one of its biggest rallies. If oil goes above $80 per barrel, that may be a tipping point that could put pressure on the market. Every $5 or $10 that oil rises above $80 could add to a recessionary scenario. Right now, we’re bullish on the major indexes like the S&P 500, but cautious with regard to individual stocks—particularly small and mid-caps. 

MarketWatch: Why are you taking a cautious approach with individual stocks? 

Minervini: Right now, participation is weak because money managers are not willing to go too far out on the risk curve, so they are gravitating towards the big heavy-weighted stocks in the index. For example, right now only about 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization is concentrated in just its top 10 stocks today, a level not seen in decades. For the Nasdaq Composite, the top five companies—and six if you count Alphabet’s dual share classes—make up over 40% of its total weight. 

 This is not a broad-based bull market. Money is narrowly concentrated. That’s why you see indexes such as the S&P 500 moving up to new highs but the percentage of stocks that are above their 200-day moving average is still very low. It’s a bifurcated market. If you’re in the bigger cap names in the indexes, you could make some money. 

MarketWatch: Can you name any stocks that you like? 

Minervini: We put a buy signal on Netflix (NFLX) in April because - at the time - it was the best name of the Magnificent Seven stocks, but it’s run up a bit now. 

MarketWatch: In 1997, you were a two-time investing champion, and at one point, averaged a 220% per year return over five years. What do you think has been the key to delivering those kinds of results?

Minervini: The real secret is risk management and discipline. Discipline is the key—committing fully to a strategy, mastering its details, and understanding both its strengths and limitations through every market cycle. You see a lot of traders who are up big, but they fail to respect risk, and suddenly they’re down big, digging out of a hole and only getting back to even. I very rarely dig out of a hole, and if I’m in a hole, it’s a small loss. It’s a simple law of compounding that if you don’t lose big, winning becomes easier. 

MarketWatch: You often emphasize the importance of risk management and discipline—areas where many traders continue to struggle. What specific methods or practices do you recommend for managing risk effectively?

Minervini: When you enter a trade, there really is no other alternative to manage risk except selling a position for a small loss before it becomes a large loss. The key is to get out at single digits, and to do that, you must use a stop-loss. Some people will hedge and maybe use put options—but that just adds risk—because you could lose on both sides. 

MarketWatch: So, in your view, managing risk and maintaining discipline is the real secret to trading success?

Minervini: I’d love to tell you something new, but things really haven’t changed a whole lot when it comes to risk-reward and supply-and-demand. It may be redundant and boring, but if you want the hair on your neck to stick up, then you’re not managing risk. You’re gambling. When I was interviewed by Jack Schwager for his Market Wizards book, after I gave him the same answer, he stopped the tape recorder and said, “Mark, this is great, but this is what all the Market Wizards say.” And I replied, “Well, Jack, this is the reason why they’re Market Wizards!”

MarketWatch: Even with all that in mind, a lot of traders still have trouble making steady profits. What are they missing?

Minervini: Many people spend all their time researching a company and falling in love with products and services such as artificial intelligence (AI). Then they buy the stock, and the next day, the stock is down 3%, 4%, 5%, or 8%. They are forced to decide whether to cut their loss. ‘Oh my God, so soon? I thought this stock was going to go up!’ They didn’t plan for the stock to go down. When you buy a stock and the stock goes down, you’re wrong. If you sell it and take the loss, you’ve admitted defeat. The real fear, and this is what keeps people from selling, is that you’re going to sell it and it’s going to turn around and go back up. Then you will be wrong a second time. Psychologically, being wrong twice is a very powerful force, and it makes us hold onto a position, even when it’s clear it should be sold. 

MarketWatch: What advice would you give traders right now? 

Minervini: I would tell them to be careful because of information overload—including thousands of self-proclaimed financial experts on YouTube. You have to figure out a way to reduce the noise and commit to a particular strategy. You must become a specialist rather than a jack of all trades. 

MarketWatch: Did you make any mistakes when you first started trading?   

Minervini: I made every mistake you could possibly make. Everything I did then was the complete opposite of what I do now. I lost money for almost six years. I reversed all the criteria. I studied what winning stocks looked like and created a “leadership profile,” which is what I use now. It’s a technical profile ranking that compares whether a stock meets the criteria of the biggest winning stocks of the last 100 years. We look at the common denominators to see if your stock has what it takes to be a big winner. That’s what has worked for me for the last 38 years. 

MarketWatch: It sounds as if you are a trend follower. 

Minervini: I am definitely aligning my investments with the trend. The main thing is a stock has to be in an uptrend. I will not trade against a trend. Then I look for stocks that are showing relative strength vs the entire market. We also look for a technical chart pattern called the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), which is my signature stock setup. If a stock doesn’t meet my criteria, I stay away from it. Many people buy a stock because of a news story or because their friend gave them a tip, but that’s not sustainable; that’s not a strategy. 

MarketWatch: Is the market different since you were interviewed for Market Wizards? 

Minervini: Nothing is different except things are faster and more accessible, which makes trading easier than ever. 

MarketWatch: Some traders blame their losses on the algorithms. 

Minervini: Those are just excuses. If you go back to the ‘40s and ‘50s, traders blamed their losses on big institutions. During the 1987 market crash, they blamed it on program trading and computers, which were basically algorithms. In the 90’s, it was the SOES Bandits, or traders who exploited Nasdaq’s Small Order Execution System (SOES) to execute high-frequency trades. There’s always some boogeyman in the closet. The algos aren’t causing the problems. The main problem is poor tactics and poor discipline. You have to not only have rules and tactics but have the discipline to follow them. 

MarketWatch: How long do you hold a stock? 

Minervini: The main thing is risk and reward. As long as the potential reward is larger than the risk, I’ll hold the stock. If my stock turns profitable, I start protecting my profits, but I’ll hold it as long as it’s behaving. I don’t hold for the really big moves like I used to when I first started trading. Now, I’m more of a swing trader. 

 MarketWatch: How do you know when a stock is too high? 

Minervini: Sometimes, a new high is actually low. For example, I bought Amazon off its IPO base back in 1997. It made an all-time high coming out of its IPO. If you look back now, that was pretty low. I also bought Yahoo! in 1997 when it was trading at 908 times earnings. Then it went up 8,000%. Looking back, the stock was actually quite low. 

MarketWatch: Is the market different since you were interviewed for Market Wizards? 

Minervini: Nothing is different except things are faster and more accessible, which makes trading easier than ever. 

MarketWatch: Some traders blame their losses on the algorithms. 

Minervini: Those are just excuses. If you go back to the ‘40s and ‘50s, traders blamed their losses on big institutions. During the 1987 market crash, they blamed it on program trading and computers, which were basically algorithms. In the 90’s, it was the SOES Bandits, or traders who exploited Nasdaq’s Small Order Execution System (SOES) to execute high-frequency trades. There’s always some boogeyman in the closet. The algos aren’t causing the problems. The main problem is poor tactics and poor discipline. You have to not only have rules and tactics but have the discipline to follow them. 

MarketWatch: How long do you hold a stock? 

Minervini: The main thing is risk and reward. As long as the potential reward is larger than the risk, I’ll hold the stock. If my stock turns profitable, I start protecting my profits, but I’ll hold it as long as it’s behaving. I don’t hold for the really big moves like I used to when I first started trading. Now, I’m more of a swing trader. 

MarketWatch: How do you know when a stock is too high? 

Minervini: Sometimes, a new high is actually low. For example, I bought Amazon off its IPO base back in 1997. It made an all-time high coming out of its IPO. If you look back now, that was pretty low. I also bought Yahoo! in 1997 when it was trading at 908 times earnings. Then it went up 8,000%. Looking back, the stock was actually quite low. 

MarketWatch: What advice did you receive when you were growing up?  

Minervini: The best advice I received was to live as modestly as you can and save as much as you possibly can early on. Don’t be quick to spend money because that money makes money. Refrain from making those really big purchases until you can afford them. Learn how to compound money, not mistakes. 

MarketWatch: Any final advice? 

Minervini: If you’re new to investing or trading, don’t believe those who say it was easier back in the day. Trading is easier now than ever. This is one of the best times in history for trading and investing in stocks. Be patient with yourself, and don’t give up. Realize you can’t be a doctor or Major League baseball player in six months or a year.  Don’t expect that to happen with trading, either. You will have to put in some time, but it’s worth it because we’re in the best times for investing. 

LINK to MarketWatch article: MarketWatch article

Warren Buffett, the voice of reason in the stock market, recently announced that he was retiring at the end of 2025. “He was like the Rock of Gibraltar,” says Jeff Bierman, chief market technician at Theo Trade and an adjunct professor of finance at Loyola University Chicago. “Losing him concerns me. It marks the end of an era of old school fundamentals that used to drive the markets until the early nineties. It’s a sad chapter that is closing, but at the same time, it opens up a Pandora’s box for much more volatility going forward.” 

The Pandora box, according to Bierman, is a “mercurial president where on any given day, there can be a tweet, a social media post, or a television appearance where one word from him drives order flow. Each morning, I wake up and wonder what he’s going to do to torch my portfolio or lift it up.”

Bierman says he worries about the unpredictability of President Trump. “To me, that is the perfect storm of a market that will remain volatile for at least the rest of the year. Trump is like the sun and everything revolves around him. Because of that, both professional and retail investors alike are constantly on pins and needles.” 

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Bierman discussed his views about the market, including stocks he is buying and what he’s avoiding.

MarketWatch: In our last interview, you warned about a volatile stock market. Have you ever seen a stock market as volatile as this?

Bierman: Not where one individual has such an impact on the market and not where so many asset classes are offered. I’ve seen volatile markets, but I haven’t seen a market quite like this where one single individual has the power to drive order flow.

MarketWatch: What should traders and investors do when the market is so unpredictable? 

Bierman: Trade small. Don’t be fully invested at all times in one single product. Also, the indexes are likely to underperform for the next few years. For the last hundred years, the indexes have delivered an 8 percent return. Prior to this year, three out of four years, the S&P 500 was up 20%. The likelihood of that repeating itself is nearly impossible statistically. So, investors need to recalibrate their expectations. If you can get a 5% to 6% return over the next three to four years, you’ve done very well.

MarketWatch: Do you have any other advice for traders and investors? 

Bierman: Cut down your position size. If you’ve been holding concentrated positions of 10%, you want to cut those in half. Also, consider international markets, or moving your money into precious metals such as gold and silver. You could consider moving your money into commodities that have been beaten down --- such as oil. Oil will eventually find its bottom,w which should provide good cash flow and dividends. 

MarketWatch: In our last interview several months ago, you said if we take out 5,600 on the S&P 500, we would go to 5,200. We are now a little above 5,800. What do you say now? 

Bierman: We did take out 5,600 and went down to 4,800. Now, we have circled back to 5,800. Let me put it in perspective: The all-time high on the S&P 500 is 6,147. Then we went down to 4,800, which is a decline of approximately 21%. We have retraced a little more than 61.8% of that, which is a normal Fibonacci retracement sequence. Nobody knows what will happen next. 

MarketWatch: Although you don’t make predictions, what are the possible scenarios? 

Bierman: I think the momentum is behind the market, although it is overextended. We could push higher, but to push back to all-time highs, you’re going to need tailwinds. We will need the Fed to cut rates, which they might do in the early part of summer. We also need for inflation to come down. We also need to get more clarity on the financial impact of tariffs, and tailwinds from technology and financials. The good news is we have tailwinds from financials, but they are now near fully priced. 

MarketWatch: What if the S&P doesn’t make it past 5,900? What could happen? 

Bierman: If we don’t push past 5,900, the S&P 500 could fall to 5,200. To make it past 5,900, you need a lot of liquidity, which you don’t have. You need a lot of tailwinds, which you don’t have. And you will need the president to be less volatile and back off his aggressive tariff agenda.  I’m telling you we are at a critical juncture where the market could retest the high.  Nevertheless, it would not surprise me to see the S&P 500 retest the intermediate low between 5,200 and 4,800. That is a real possibility. 

MarketWatch: Are there any particular stocks that you think are worth buying?   

Bierman: I happen to like financial stocks such as JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and PayPal (PYPL). They are all good places to park your money. I like financials with steady cash flow, decent dividends and relatively below average multiples. The financials should not be as impacted by the tariffs compared to other sectors. I also like pharmaceutical stocks such as Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). They delivered much better-than-expected earnings and the valuation is compelling. I also like Merck, which had great earnings. I also like Baxter International (BAX) even though the dividend is not as compelling but has decent upside. 

MarketWatch: Are there any stocks you don’t like and would avoid? 

Bierman: I think Walmart is in a bubble and Costco is ridiculously expensive, but I think there’s compelling value in Target (TGT), BJ Wholesale (BJ), and TJ Maxx (TJX). I also think much of the AI trade has been played out. I think you need exposure to AI but not to be overweight. Many high-profile companies are cutting back on their spending budgets and resorting to layoffs as a result of the uncertainty around the economy, and that could trickle into AI. 

MarketWatch: In our last interview, you said you were buying semiconductors. Are you still buying those? 

Bierman: No, I’m holding off on most semiconductors at this point, but I do see compelling value in On Semiconductor (ON), Western Digital (WDC), and Storage Technology (STX), and Dell Computer (DELL). 

MarketWatch: Are there other investments you are recommending? 

Bierman: You need some exposure to fixed income, whether it’s an annuity or a short-term bond. I don’t like long-term bonds due to their elevated exposure to interest rate risk and lack of liquidity premium. I’d suggest short-term bonds or bond mutual funds. For stock market investors I would tilt more towards large cap stocks away from small cap stocks because small caps tend to lead to the downside in an economic slowdown. I’ve been moving more towards dividend intensive stocks for protection. 

 MarketWatch: Is there anything about the stock market that people don’t know? 

Bierman: Liquidity in this market is about as thin as it has been in many years. Insiders are not buying with conviction. If insiders are not buying with conviction, it is not a vote of confidence for the market going forward. Most fund managers are buying rather selectively. Right now, 20 to 30 stocks are carrying the market higher while the other 470 stocks are underweight or just left behind. It gives an image that the market is healthy when it’s really not on solid footing. Because of the relative scarcity of liquidity, I would not rule out a 2009-style flash crash either.

I interviewed stock-market veteran Louis Navellier, who remains bullish about the stock market.

LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE: MarketWatch article

Stock-market veteran Louis Navellier, the chairman and founder of investment firm Navellier & Associates, is well-known for spotting high-potential stocks through a combination of data-driven, quantitative analysis and hands-on fundamental company research.

Navellier, an occasional MarketWatch contributor, publishes several investment newsletters focused on growth stocks and is the author, most recently, “The Sacred Truths of Investing: Finding Growth Stocks that Will Make You Rich.”

Turbulent financial markets and the steep decline of the “Magnificent Seven” big-tech growth stocks and other former investor favorites make this a good time to catch up with Navellier for his perspective on what has happened to the stock market and what he sees coming.

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Navellier discussed stocks, bonds, the economy and tariffs. He also called out some of the stocks that have passed his firm’s strict test of relative strength. (Navellier commented before the market’s rally this week on better-than-expected tariff news.)

MarketWatch: The stock market now seems to be more reactive to politics than the business fundamentals you focus on. But it’s quarterly earnings season now. Against that backdrop, what’s your outlook for stocks?

Navellier: It’s imperative that earnings resume working. That’s why our firm focuses on earnings and not the ongoing tariff drama. I know we’re going to have double-digit earnings growth this year. There will also be falling rates. We have a pro-business president, but he’s an acquired taste. Not everyone is used to him and he did overreach, for lack of a better word.

MarketWatch: What is keeping you upbeat about stocks right now?

Navellier: Wall Street strategists are lowering their targets, but I ignore those people. I care about the analysts doing the actual earnings estimates for all my portfolio companies. At the end of each quarterly earnings season, I retest my quant systems. Here are a couple of observations: First, the companies we chose have to be in the top 45% of fundamentals. Then, when we do our quant-model overlay, we want the company to be in the top 5%.

MarketWatch: Let’s talk about those companies. What are some favorite stocks that have passed your test?

Navellier: Our largest holding is Nvidia Corp. Our second-largest holding is Eli Lilly & Co. We’re very bullish on Lilly, although they’ve struggled because there were rumors of U.S. tariffs on the pharmaceuticals. We also have a lot of Costco Wholesale Corp. shares. We view Costco as a luxury retailer. Go to their parking lot and see who is loading up. Another major holding of ours is Super Micro Computer Inc. We’ve been in it for years and rode it through all the ups and downs. They make the best server systems for Nvidia.

MarketWatch: To be bullish on U.S. growth stocks is to be bullish on America. But the recent decline in both the U.S. dollar and Treasurys suggests that many investors are looking elsewhere in the world. What would you tell them?

Navellier: I’m very bullish on America. We have a better model — no matter who we elect. We’re food and energy independent. The world economy is shrinking. Only America, Brazil and India are growing, and Brazil’s about to stop growing.

The dollar’s down this year, and people are net sellers of Treasurys. There is a lot of concern about America and its deficits and leadership. I’m not trying to pick on President [Donald] Trump, but he clearly doesn’t sell well everywhere. The bond market has temporarily calmed down, but the jury is still out. The bond-busters may sell further. When the dust settles, the dollar will come back. Hopefully, the dollar’s appreciation will offset those 10% tariffs.

MarketWatch: There’s been no “Fed put” to support the stock market so far. Are you expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year?

Navellier: The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are both going to cut rates, and U.S. rates are going to come down once bond investors calm down. I’m still expecting up to four Fed rate cuts, and then we’ll get this turbo boost.

Overall, I expect a global interest-rate collapse — a real collapse. There’s deflation in China — they just dumped a whole bunch of goods on us. Meanwhile, oil prices are at a four-year low.

MarketWatch: The Trump administration’s on-again, off-again trade tariffs have whipsawed investors. Where do you see U.S. trade policy ultimately taking the economy?

Navellier: The U.S. has a big underground economy, so you either have to do a VAT (value-added tax) or a tariff. The U.S. government is going to raise money to pay down the federal budget deficit. I think we will have freer trade when it’s all said and done.

MarketWatch: Do you see a recession in the U.S. before that happens?

Navellier: No. The U.S. economy may have a negative first quarter because of the trade imbalances, but I think we get our mojo back in this current second quarter. There is no doubt that business planning was hurt by the uncertainty surrounding what Trump is doing. Hopefully, all will be forgiven and we’ll get back to normal. Even if you’re a Trump supporter, you were probably slightly annoyed for a while.

MarketWatch: Any advice for how investors can get a better read on the markets, with so much uncertainty around?

Navellier: The best tip sheet is Truth Social — Trump’s social media platform.

MarketWatch: Anything else, or is that enough for now?

Navellier: I would recommend that people own monopolistic stocks that dominate their business. I like margin expansion (i.e., an increase in a company’s profit margins). I like it when a company’s earnings grow faster than sales. I also like earnings surprises and guidance. Don’t get distracted by all of the noise. Markets are liquid, especially when earnings come out. The other times it’s a bunch of games and shenanigans. The main message is to buy and hold, and also to buy monopolies. My 1,000% winners were all monopolies.

I interviewed social media star Steve Burns for my latest MarketWatch column. As you will find out, he is short-term bearish but long-term bullish. Read the article below to find out what he wants to buy when the selloff ends.

Link to original article: MarketWatch article

One truth of stock investing is that it’s better to be early than broke. 

Veteran stock trader Steve Burns learned this lesson the hard way. Burns is a popular figure on social media, where he addresses experienced and novice traders alike to help them steer clear of the stock market’s cliffs. 

In a MarketWatch interview last December, Burns declared that U.S. stocks were in the “greatest bubble in the history of civilization.” He predicted that the U.S. market would soon suffer a correction — and he’s been spot-on so far. 

With the Trump administration’s trade tariffs tanking stock markets in the U.S. and worldwide, Burns said he’s moved his portfolio completely to cash, at least for the time being. In this interview, which was conducted last week as the global market selloff accelerated, Burns said he’s been surprised by the speed and ferociousness of the market’s slide, and speculates about how Trump’s tariffs could impact stocks this year. (This interview has been edited for length and clarity.)

MarketWatch: Four months ago, you were bearish about the U.S. stock market. With the market selling off, do you think we’re close to a bottom? 

Burns: In the short-term, I am very bearish. This is a historical crash and a 50% correction is probable over the next nine months to a year.

But I’m long-term bullish. At some point, this is going to work out, but right now the market is trying to reprice every company on an individual basis based on their risk exposure to tariffs. Oil is signaling a huge recession even though OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reduced its crude oil production. 

MW: How has this tariff-induced selloff affected your portfolio?

Burns: On April 3, I moved to cash. I dipped into small-caps that morning but got stopped out. I went to cash because this looks like a macro tariff-tantrum crash that has very little to do with technical analysis. Everything looked great from a technical standpoint before the tariffs, but now the technicals are broken. Everything relies on how quickly the Trump administration can come to trade agreements, especially with China. If not, there could be a depression, especially in other countries. 

MW: Besides tariffs, what else is a catalyst for this selloff? You said technical indicators had been strong. 

Burns: The AI bubble popped with DeepSeek (a Chinese AI app founded in 2023 that competes with ChatGPT). I don’t know if we’ll get back to the highs in the AI-sector stocks, but I think that Nvidia is still a good long-term play because they are the supplier of the chips. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon.com, and Apple all got popped when people realized the pricing was not equivalent to the value of their business models. 

MW: Let’s talk about the U.S. economy. There’s concern that the U.S. will experience a bout of stagflation — slower growth and higher inflation. The housing market is frozen as buyers balk at high mortgage rates. Trump has been trying to get the U.S. Federal Reserve to bring down interest rates. What will it take to lower prices? 

Burns: To lower inflation and bring mortgage yields down, the stock market would have to crash. It looks like the Trump administration is trying to cause a bear market in equities so they can get more people to buy bonds and drive mortgage yields down. It seems like their top goal is getting inflation down and they will do whatever it takes to do that.

MW: The stock market is clearly showing it disapproves. 

Burns: They don’t care. It’s almost like they want to cause the stock market to go down and cause bond yields to go up, which will force the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates because the economy is so bad. I’m speculating, but I think Trump would rather have the stock market crash now so he can go into the 2026 midterm elections with the stock market at all-time highs. 

MW: What will it take for the Trump administration to succeed? 

Burns: That pathway will be very hard with the political pressures, especially if the U.S. goes into a deeper recession and doesn’t come out by the midterms. Trump could buckle if the economy is in a shambles by the midterms. He has a year and nine months to rebuild a long-term supply chain. 

MW: What would cause you to move out of your cash position? 

Burns: I’m looking for an established base built on a bottom. The first indicator I look for is a price above the 200-day moving average. What could stop the selloff is if the U.S. can get a deal with China. We could have a monstrous rally — but China looks like it’s doubling down. 

MW: What would you consider buying once the market recovers?   

Burns: I’d consider Alphabet and Block. Many people aren’t buying Alphabet’s YouTube is overtaking Disney and Hulu combined. YouTube is the No. 1-watched media site now. Alphabet’s stock, however, has been driven down by the government’s push to break it up. Block, which used to be Square, is a great financial play in fintech (financial technology). It’s a future national cash register — a new way of connecting monetary payments. 

MW: What should traders and investors do to reduce risk? 

Burns: It’s not a great time to take huge positions. It’s a good time to test the waters to see how the tariffs will play out over the next few weeks. That means having smaller position sizes. It’s very dangerous to short after the market has already dropped into a correction. 

MW: What would you tell buy-and-hold investors right now? 

Burns: Buy-and-hold now is similar to buying and holding in 2000 or 2007, which I lived through. That got me away from buy-and-hold. If you’re in your 20s and have a 20-year time horizon, buy-and-hold makes sense. But not if you’re older. I can’t imagine putting all my capital into buying and holding right now with the current valuations. The odds are good that there will be a 50% correction once every 15 years. 

Michael Sincere is the author, most recently, of “Help Your Child Build Wealth: A Parent’s Guide to Teaching Children To Be Successful Investors,” and “Mr. Sincere Teaches You How to Sell Covered Calls.”

I wrote the following article about social media star Tori Dunlap and the money tips she has to help women get richer. Here is a link to the original MarketWatch article: MarketWatch Interview

Tori Dunlap founded “Her First 100k” to help women better understand their money and finances — and to guide them through the myriad obstacles they often face in building wealth. Dunlap followed this up with a financial advice book, “Financial Feminist: Overcome the Patriarchy’s Bullsh*t to Master Your Money and Build a Life You Love,” and currently offers money-management tips on her “Financial Feminist” podcast. 

 Dunlap’s popularity — she has millions of followers on social media — has helped her achieve financial independence. Dunlap wants other women to follow her example. “I’m passionate about women making sure they not only have their own money, but have control over those funds,” she says.

Building your wealth starts by learning everything you can about personal finance, Dunlap says. These five questions to ask yourself are a good place to start:  

•            Are you negotiating your salary effectively? 

•            Are you thinking about starting a business? 

•            Are you getting compensated for your actual worth? 

•            Are you spending money according to your values? 

•            Are you certain your money is well spent on the things that you actually love and need, as opposed to spending mindlessly? 

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Dunlap explains how to build wealth, find investments that protect your portfolio from market volatility and improve your financial security.

MarketWatch: How did you make your first $100,000?  

Dunlap: It was a combination of things. First, it was the ability to graduate with no student debt. I worked three jobs on campus and worked summers. My parents contributed to my college fund. Secondly, I prioritized spending according to things I wanted to do rather than feeling I had to spend money on everything. Third, I had a side hustle, which allowed me to save a portion of my income. I opened up a Roth IRA when I was 22 and maxed my contribution every year. 

MarketWatch: What do you want women to learn about building wealth like you have? 

Dunlap: I want women to know that it’s possible for them to build wealth in a sustainable way. Women are less likely to invest than men, and often start later in life, which causes them to miss out on millions of dollars in compound earnings — but there are resources out there designed specifically for them.     

MarketWatch: What specific advice would you give anyone wanting to build wealth? 

Dunlap: First, I would make sure your savings are automated. Building your emergency fund should be at the top of your list, regardless of how much debt you’re in. Another tip would be to make sure you are fairly compensated for your work. Negotiate for more, or move on. Third, make sure you’re investing as early and consistently as possible. 

MarketWatch: Is it hard to follow this advice? 

Dunlap: Yes, it’s easier said than done! There are many systematic barriers that keep women from building wealth. The trillion-dollar student-debt crisis impacts women more than men. The wage gap and pay gap — women are constantly up against these barriers in addition to just trying to manage their personal finances. 

MarketWatch: What are some common mistakes that women make with their money? 

Dunlap: This may shock a lot of people, but a vast majority of women don’t know that the Roth IRA or the 401(k) is not the investment itself. A lot of women think that they deposit their money into mutual funds, but don’t realize that their investments really go into a cash account. It is a two-step process; make sure you transfer money into your account, and then buy investments with that money. Otherwise, you’re keeping your money in what I jokingly call “financial purgatory!”  

MarketWatch: What stock-market investment approach do you recommend? 

Dunlap: Sustainable long-term investing, rather than trying to pick the next hot stock. Essentially, this means you’re not putting all of your eggs in one basket. You’re making a more diversified, low-risk choice. I personally like index funds for that reason, and own shares of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

MarketWatch: What are effective ways for an investor to handle stock-market volatility? 

Dunlap: Make sure you have at least a three-month emergency fund in a high-yield savings account. This is just like a normal savings account, but it’s going to earn you way more in interest. Be protected in case of an emergency before you start investing. Second, have a secondary source of income to insure against losing your job or facing a financial emergency. You don’t want to be solely reliant on one source of income. 

MarketWatch: What is one of the most important lessons you have learned about money? 

Dunlap: One of the biggest financial decisions concerns your choice of a partner. Whether it’s marriage or a long-term relationship, that partner is going to directly impact almost every financial choice you make. 

MarketWatch: Why do your podcasts and books resonate with so many people, especially women? 

Dunlap: I think that a lot of personal-finance education was shaming and judgmental. It was focused on how you didn’t make the right choices or that you are not working hard enough. It is refreshing to a lot of women who are outwardly feminist. Her First $100K is a feminist company that talks about money. That idea has connected with our community of 5 million women who feel safe and aren’t judged for their personal finances. We also take something that has felt intimidating — personal finance — and make it easy to understand. 

MarketWatch: What else can women do to improve their financial lives? 

Dunlap: I’m passionate about women making sure they not only have their own money, but have control over those funds. If they need to get out of unsafe situations that they don’t want to be in anymore, they should have access to their own money. And if a relationship should end, they need to learn everything they possibly can about personal finance so that they’re able to stand on their own two feet. 

I always tell women that a financial education is the best form of protest. In a society and system that makes sure women are controllable by constantly franchising them, and keeps them playing small, having money means having options. I’ve seen it with literally millions of women who can leave abusive marriages, take care of their ailing family members, pay off their student loans, save that first thousand dollars and breathe easier because they have their own money. 

Michael Sincere is the author of Help Your Child Build Wealth and Mr. Sincere Teaches You How to Sell Covered Calls. 

The following is a column I wrote for MarketWatch on what veteran trader Jeffrey Bierman thinks about the stock market, and the stocks he likes --- or doesn't like.

Link to MarketWatch article: https://bit.ly/4jq80XV

Jeffrey Bierman, an adjunct professor of finance at Loyola University Chicago and founder of Genisuscog.com, says the market is trying to figure out a lot of conflicting information, including the biggest wild card of all, Donald Trump. 

“Trump is a wild card in terms of his habit of tweeting,” Bierman says. “He’s mercurial.” Every time he comes out and says he’s going to cut taxes, impose tariffs, or invade Greenland, he creates a crosscurrent of uncertainty, which keeps the market guessing. If there is anything the market doesn’t like, it’s uncertainty. They like clarity and steadiness. You are not going to get that from him. This will be the year of volatility. It will be the new norm.” 

MarketWatch recently spoke with Bierman to discuss his contrarian views about the market, including the names of stocks he is buying and the ones he’s avoiding. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. 

MarketWatch: What do you think of the market right now? 

Bierman: It’s a trader’s market, not an investor’s market. The market is going to move in fits and starts for an extended period. You’re going to have a lot of false breakdowns and false breakouts. The key support level on the S&P 500 is around 5,800 (editor note: which was hit the day after the interview). The next line of defense is 5,600. If we take that out, we’ll mostly trade down to 5,200. 

MarketWatch: Do you expect a crash?  

Bierman: The odds of a crash are not high, but the odds of a garden variety 10% correction is fait accompli (i.e., inevitable). It’s likely and it’s healthy. The momentum to the upside is broken, but the long-term trend is not broken. 

MarketWatch: What preparations are you taking? 

Bierman: I’m lightening up on my exposure to technology. Hardware and software are in a bull market, so I’m scaling back my exposure to them and taking profits. I’m deploying that cash to semiconductors, which are in a bear market. I like stocks that have been beaten down. The semiconductors look awful.

MarketWatch: What specific stocks do you like --- or not like? 

Bierman: I added Applied Materials (AMAT) to my portfolio and also Qualcomm (QCOM) because the valuations are compelling. What I am avoiding like the plague are Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro (AMD). They are highly overpriced in a highly competitive space. They are not gaining traction.

MarketWatch: Are there any investment themes that you like? 

Bierman: I like nuclear energy and AI healthcare, but not AI computers. The AI momentum trade is not going to work this year. I own Medtronic PLC (MDT) and Intuitive Surgery (ISRG), and they are both doing very well. My long trades are mostly pharmaceutical companies. It’s been the most hated sector for the last four years, which is why I went back in it. I’m also selectively buying consumer staples. 

MarketWatch: What investment themes are you avoiding? 

Bierman: I am avoiding retail such as Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT), and stocks such as Lululemon (LULU), which is at its 52-week high. If the market corrects 10% and consumers are tapped out on debt, they will dramatically curb their spending. Consumers have used their investment portfolio as if it was an ATM machine. This will affect retail stocks.

MarketWatch: What advice would you give traders? 

Bierman: I would tell them not to be too bullish or bearish in their thinking because their thesis can turn against them. If you’re a trader, manage your risk. Don’t take big positions, and curb your expectations. Trade half the size you usually trade. Also, keep larger than normal cash on hand. Finally, be unemotional. Don’t fall in love with your stocks. There is a point where you have to cut your losers. You have to admit you made a mistake and walk away.  

MarketWatch: Should traders follow the strategies that have worked in the past? 

Bierman: The market may have had a 25% return last year and the year before, but we are not getting a 25% return this year --- although it could be positive. Because of the generalized tweets from the new president and macro data from the Fed, it will a bump and grind, fits and start market with unexpected spikes in volume and volatility at any given time. 

MarketWatch: Are there any indicators that you use? 

Bierman: The number one indicator I use is MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). The second indicator I use is RSI (Relative Strength Index). The third indicator I like to use are channels. 

MarketWatch: What do these indicators tell you?

Bierman: I use these indicators to identify market strength and weakness. Because of algorithms (algos), stocks that are strong continue to be elevated and overbought and the weak continue to be depressed and oversold --- regardless of valuation. Algos buy into strength and sells into weakness. 

MarketWatch: Are algos that powerful? 

Bierman: Most investors aren’t aware that about 95% to 99% of all trades on any given day are done electronically by algos. They’re preprogrammed machines that are buying and selling based upon order flow and slopes (i.e., uptrends and downtrends). They’re completely detached from fundamentals. Don’t underestimate the power of algos. They took this market up and defended it for years. They can take the markets down either slowly or quickly. 

MarketWatch: What happens if the algos start selling? 

Bierman: Right now, we’re in a purgatory of nothingness as the algos keep swing trading. Because key support levels haven’t been violated, the market isn’t moving lower. However, if the market starts to go into a downward spiral and we’re down 20% to 25% in a month, the government might step in and curb the algos by changing the rules of the game. If the algos cause price deterioration and destroy the market, the government will impose regulations on both the upside and downside. Investors should be prepared that gains on the upside will also be curbed. 

MarketWatch: Is there anything else that could collapse this market? 

Bierman: If money managers start to back out of the Magnificent Eight stocks, the eighth being Broadcom (AVGO), then it could unravel the market and create an incredible meltdown. If the trend is broken, there will be forced liquidations by either margin calls or customer redemptions. The Magnificent Eight could also be the reason the market falls by 15% to 20%, and in a short period. This is the year it could happen.

MarketWatch: Is this your prediction? 

Bierman: No. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I would not be surprised if it does. It only takes a few seconds to wipe out these stocks. If things start turning down from a slowing economy, it could be the death nail that forces the market lower. There is one thing that I am certain of: We are going to have a 10% correction this year. I don’t know when, maybe April or the summer. The market needs to go through a garden variety correction. A lot of people are calling for a 40% haircut. I’m not. I’m not expecting a massive meltdown but I am expecting a substantial correction. 

MarketWatch: Do you have any hedges? 

Bierman: My hedge is to buy a little gold and silver. I bought Newmont Corporation (NEM) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Everyone should have some exposure to gold. 

Michael Sincere (michaelsincere.com) is the author of “Understanding Options,” “Understanding Stocks,” and his latest,“Help Your Child Build Wealth” (Wiley, 2024).

Here is the link to the article I wrote for MarketWatch: https://bit.ly/3VMkdfn

Steve Burns keeps a list of stocks to buy — at much lower prices. Right now he’s short the U.S. market and buying gold and silver. Steve Burns began his stock-trading career in an old-fashioned way, echoing the advice of famed mutual-fund manager Peter Lynch to buy stocks of companies whose products you use and appreciate.

As a teenager, Burns had a job at a store in a shopping mall. He was surprised to discover that many stores in the mall were operated by publicly traded companies. Burns began to follow these stocks. He saw how prices moved, how some companies went public with an IPO and how they were valued. He became aware of the power of compound earnings, and how even conservatively positioned portfolios could grow meaningfully over time. 

When he turned 18, Burns opened an account at a brokerage firm and started buying and selling stocks. This was during the dot-com fueled 1990s bull market, and Burns enjoyed a lot of beginner’s luck — “I had a crazy, absurd run, similar to what people are experiencing now,” he recalls. 

Burns also made his share of mistakes: “I didn’t learn to trade or have a system,” he says. “I was just lucky until I got hit with a 50% drawdown, which was really painful. Now, I trade smaller with smaller gains but avoid those monster drawdowns.” 

Nowadays, Burns is a popular teacher for experienced and novice traders alike. He has a large social-media following and is the author of more than 20 books, including his latest: “The Ultimate Guide to Swing Trading.” He’s also expanding his teaching to personal finance and wealth-building.  

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Burns offered tips for trading this market and voiced his strong concerns about it. Right now, Burns sees “a lot of similarities with buy-and-hold investors and index funds versus how I felt in 1998 and 1999.” 

According to Burns, the U.S. market now is even more dangerous — trapped in what he calls the “greatest bubble in the history of civilization.”

MarketWatch: What do you think of the U.S. stock market right now? 

Burns: We are in the greatest bubble in the history of civilization. It’s caused by too much U.S. currency in the financial system. It all comes back to the U.S. dollar. At the same time, you have the most money flowing into equity indexes, and bonds and metals are rallying. It doesn’t make sense anymore. Everything is going up in price. It’s pretty astounding how little fear and uncertainty is priced into the market right now. I’ve never seen anything like it. 

MarketWatch: Do you think the U.S. Federal Reserve can do anything to deflate this bubble? 

Burns: The disturbing thing is the Fed has cut interest rates, but they didn’t bring down mortgage rates. The Fed has lost control of both the yield and the yield curve. The Fed is now at a dangerous place where they’ve also lost control of interest rates. They could keep cutting rates but the banks don’t want to lower mortgage rates, and bond investors want higher yields for the risks they are taking.

MarketWatch: How bad could it get? 

Burns: The Fed is terrified of a depression so they will not restrict monetary policy. They are flooding the system with money through government debt and cutting interest rates. The real risk is hyperinflation or a [U.S.] dollar devaluation at some point. The last 12 months have just astounded me with the lack of pullbacks, the lack of swings to the downside, and the continuous market above new all-time highs. It’s absurdly overbought. 

MarketWatch: How are you preparing for this possible scenario? 

Burns: I’m holding a lot of real estate as a hedge. I am not looking to be a buy-and-hold investor right now. It’s great to be a buy-and-hold investor during secular bear markets where you can dollar-cost average and benefit from the bull market. It was not great to be a buy-and-hold investor in 2001 and 2002, or 2008 to 2009. It took a lot of people a decade to get back to even. 

MarketWatch: Are there any stocks you would buy after a market plunge?  

Burns: If we have a 50% correction or crash, because everything is way overvalued, I will buy metals such as gold and silver ETFs — GLD and SLV — to hedge against the U.S. dollar devaluation. If we have a secular bear market and a 50% correction, I’d buy Palantir Technologies, Reddit, Nvidia, and Rocket Lab USA. These are four of the best-looking stock charts I’ve seen. 

MarketWatch: What are you buying right now? 

Burns: I’m actually short the market. The only thing that looks good to me right now are GLD and SLV. Everything else looks mind-boggling overbought. 

MarketWatch: What advice would you give traders to manage this and other market conditions? 

Burns: The number one way to manage risk is through position sizing. Regardless of your trading system, position sizing will determine whether you can compound your gains, keep your profits, or be ruined.

Stop and think, ‘Are you operating as a business or as a gambler?’ If you’re a gambler and just making opinions and predictions based on your personal thoughts, you’re going to get in trouble, especially at these huge turning points, because anything can happen. Traders need to ask themselves, ‘Are you just a lucky gambler in the wildest bull market in history?’

LINK to article: https://bit.ly/3Bwo4GE

Nearly all parents want their children to be financially successful. Attaining wealth means more freedom, opportunities, and the ability to handle any financial emergency (and without relying on credit cards).

One of the easiest ways to build wealth is by investing in index funds or stocks. Fact: You and your child can beat most of the market professionals who manage money for a living. It’s often been reported that 90% of the pros fail to beat the S&P 500 index each year.

Many Equities.com readers know that the S&P 500 is a closely-followed index that matches the performance of 500 of the largest US corporations. This is the index that most professional managers want to beat, and the index I suggest that you buy for you and your child.

If you are new to the stock market, below are the steps you may take if you want to help your child build wealth. If you follow these steps, although there are no guarantees, there is a good chance your child will be a millionaire well before they reach retirement age.

I’m not just saying that because it sounds good. I’ve run the numbers: a million dollars is attainable. The sooner your child starts investing, the more money they can potentially make.

Note: Go to bankrate.com and search for the investment calculator. Then plug in the data to see how long it will take to make that first million dollars. The results differ depending on your child’s age, how much they contribute, and whether the money is in a tax-free or taxable account.

The good news is it doesn’t take a lot of money to get started. The bad news is it takes a long time to build wealth, so patience and discipline is necessary. Following are the seven steps needed to help your child build wealth.

Seven steps to building wealth

In my book, "Help Your Child Build Wealth" (Wiley, 2024), I identified seven steps to building wealth:

1. The first action that must be taken is opening a stock brokerage account for yourself, and eventually for your child. Opening a brokerage account is similar to opening a checking or savings account. You can open it with as little as one dollar (or use another currency).

2. Once the account is open, invest as much as you can afford into the S&P 500 index fund each month, even if it’s $5 or $10. The S&P 500 index fund is one of the most brilliant financial products created for most investors. Instead of trying to “beat” the market, the goal is to do just as well as the market (i.e., match it) each month.

3. The first goal is to get your child in the habit of investing every month, what is referred to as “paying yourself first.” Investing in an index fund is a much better habit for children than only being a spender. In fact, your children can do both. They can spend money on the things they want or need. They can also invest a few dollars into an index fund each month.

4. The second goal is to invest a set amount of money into the index fund each month, even if it’s a small sum. This excellent strategy is called dollar-cost averaging.

5. The hard part is what comes next. After investing the same amount of money into the S&P 500 index fund each month, your child must not touch the money no matter if the market is moving higher or lower. With dollar cost averaging, if the market is moving lower, your child will buy more shares of the index fund at lower prices. This is similar to buying stuff at a street market when items are on sale.

6. However, if the market is moving higher, your child will buy fewer shares of the S&P 500 index fund. Whether the market is moving higher or lower, the hard part is to keep investing each month. It takes a disciplined investor to keep investing, month-after-month, and not sell.

7. Those who are willing to accept more risk can invest in individual stocks.

The 529 educational savings plan

An excellent program that will help pay for your child’s college is the 529 educational savings plan. “529” refers to Section 529 in the federal tax code. It enables parents to save money for college, and do it tax-free. The 529 plan is offered by brokerage firms as well as every state government (except for one). The invested money that is growing tax-free can be used for any eligible college.

There’s only one catch to this excellent program. The invested money must be used to help pay for tuition or any educational expense such as room and board, and supplies.

How does it work? Briefly, the 529 plan is funded by investing after-tax money into certain financial products such as index funds or mutual funds (but no individual stocks). It’s easy to enroll your child into the plan. Once the account is open, relatives or friends can contribute to the plan on birthdays or other special events. You can also make lump sum deposits.

The money in the 529 account is allowed to grow tax-free until it is withdrawn. As always, the earlier your child enrolls in the plan, the better. The cost is extremely low, especially if opened with a brokerage firm or state government.

Build wealth by paying yourself first

There are several ways to help your child build wealth, and to do it tax free. The earlier they start investing, the more wealth they will have when they are older. They don’t need a lot of money to get started: Even if they start investing $10 or $20 a month, that will help teach your child the importance of saving money by paying themselves first.

Note: To learn more about how to help children build wealth, read Michael Sincere's latest book, "Help Your Child Build Wealth," which can be ordered on Amazon: https://bit.ly/3OGOVmO or Barnes and Noble: https://bit.ly/49x6gGS .

I wrote the following article for MarketWatch. LINK: https://bit.ly/4g3kNNZ

Robert Ross never expected that his knowledge of stock-trading and investment strategies would make him a social-media sensation.

Ross cut his teeth as the senior equity analyst at investment research companies including Mauldin Economics. He had a knack for financial market analysis and stock picking, and became one of the youngest chief analysts in the industry. 

Now Ross runs TikStocks, attracting a massive social-media following for his practical and insightful market-related TikTok and Instagram videos (@tikstocks). He also publishes a weekly newsletter on Substack called “Let’s Analyze” (tikstocks.substack.com) and is the author of “High-Risk, High-Reward Investing.”

In a recent interview, which has been edited for clarity, Ross shared his perspective about whether the market can extends its impressive year-to-date gains into 2025. (He’s bullish). Among his conclusions: Nvidia 

NVDA1.18% stock is fairly valued but Apple AAPL1.28% shares are expensive; bitcoin’s BTCUSD-0.47% swift run will lead to some profit-taking, and that too many stock investors actually aren’t bullish enough.

MarketWatch: What shape is the U.S. stock market in now?  

Ross: Near term, it’s extended. That being said, we’re in a secular bull market that’s going to last at least a few more years. Historically, secular bull markets are fueled by technological advancement, a fiscal or monetary stimulus, or a liquidity boom. 

We have all three right now. We’re having a huge technological boom with artificial intelligence (AI) that will increase earnings and productivity across all sectors and especially benefit a few stocks like Nvidia. The U.S. Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, and globally, central banks are lowering interest rates, which is creating a lot of liquidity in the market that I expect to flow into U.S. securities. Another reason the secular bull market continues is we will have a deregulation tailwind happening across the U.S. economy. Overall, I’m bullish and staying invested. 

MarketWatch: Some people would counter that many stocks are too expensive right now. Are you comfortable with current valuations?  

Ross: A lot of stocks aren’t that expensive if you look at them relative to their earnings growth. Earnings growth is what makes stocks go up. Take a look at Nvidia: The company is expected to grow earnings at 35% per year over the next five years, but recently traded at only 35 times forward earnings, which really isn’t expensive —- it’s a 1:1 ratio. On the other hand, Apple is expected to grow earnings at 15% over the next five years and is trading at 27 times earnings. That’s a little less compelling. 

MarketWatch: In general, should investors be afraid to buy when the market looks to be at a high point? 

Ross: No. That’s a trap that many investors fall into. They want to go bottom-fishing for stocks. They want to find stocks that are at their 52-week lows and time the bottom for a turnaround. If a stock is at a 52-week low, especially in the type of bull market we’re in right now, there’s something wrong with that business. I don’t want to buy crap businesses at a cheap price. I’d rather buy a really good business at an okay price. 

MarketWatch: What parts of the market look attractive now? 

Ross: I own the Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund ETF  

VB-0.23%. I like a crypto miner, TeraWulf WULF-0.68%, one of the only carbon-neutral bitcoin BTCUSD-0.47%miners. I also like Upstart Holdings UPST8.00%, which is a great short-squeeze candidate. About 28% of its shares are so sold short. I can see it going significantly higher from here. 

MarketWatch: How do you reduce stock-market risk? 

Ross: I always define my risk before I enter a position. I’ll have a stop-loss in place at a specific technical level. I would never open a position without a stop-loss. If a stock falls below a certain level, I’m out of the trade. I’m happy to sell it and reallocate my money elsewhere, especially during a bull market like we’re in now. If a stock is not going up in a bull market like this, it’s not something I want to own. 

MarketWatch: What’s your take on bitcoin after its sprint to almost $100,000? 

Bitcoin is actually my largest position right now. I’ve held it since 2017. Since that time, the position has gotten much bigger. We’re going to have a lot of tailwinds here, especially since a crypto-friendly presidential administration is coming in. But in the near-term, I wouldn’t be chasing crypto higher. Everyone loves the euphoric highs that we get during these rallies, but with bitcoin, most of the gains since 2016 and 2017 come in about 10 days in a year. We have these massive surges higher. So while I’m not necessarily buying here, I’m not selling either. Happy to keep “HODL-ing,” as they say in crypto.

MarketWatch: How do you manage bitcoin’s volatility? 

Ross: I’m happy to hold volatile positions for the long term if the long-term thesis makes sense. Bitcoin fits into my long-term portfolio because I don’t know when these big surges are going to happen. It’s also dominating my portfolio so I will probably rebalance at some point. Again, I’ve held bitcoin since 2017. In bull markets, it dominates my portfolio. Considering it’s ~20% of my entire portfolio today, I’m not looking to buy right now. 

There are a few indicators I watch to know when it’s time to sell, and I think we’re getting to a point where it’s time to take some profits off the table. I went on record as early as April 2023 stating we were in a new crypto bull run, so I’ve captured nearly all the upside. I like to buy crypto when nobody’s talking about it or cares about it. That is not the case right now. 

MarketWatch: Do you trade options?

Ross: I usually buy LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities). Right now, I own LEAPS on the Nasdaq Semiconductor Index through an ETF, VanEck Semiconductor ETF 

SMH0.22%, and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY0.05%. I’m thinking of buying LEAPS in Tesla TSLA-1.59% for the same reason I bought Upstart. [Telsa CEO] Elon Musk will be in Trump’s administration, which I think will help companies like Tesla, which will benefit from government subsidies. 

MarketWatch: What advice do you have for beginning investors? 

Ross: Too many investors are too bearish. They think the way to make a lot of money in the market is to put on these sexy directional bets, like Michael Burry in “The Big Short.” If you’re right, you make a fortune and if wrong, you lose everything. I think that’s more like a Hollywood dramatization of how investing actually works. The fact is that the S&P 500 

SPX0.05%, since 1921, has finished in positive territory 75% of the time, delivering returns of about 9% per year. 

Everyone thinks the next crash is around the corner, but the fact is market crashes — or declines of -50% or more — are extremely rare, happening only twice in the last century. Overall, the best piece of investment advice came from [former Fidelity Investments mutual-fund manager] Peter Lynch, who said that more money has been lost trying to anticipate the next correction than from the correction itself. 

Michael Sincere (michaelsincere.com) is the author of “Understanding Options,” “Understanding Stocks,” and his latest, “Help Your Child Build Wealth” (Wiley, 2024).

Humbled Trader: "You are never bigger than the market."

Link to MarketWatch article: https://bit.ly/4dWqb3G

Shay Huang, a.k.a. “Humbled Trader,” has amassed a widespread and loyal social-media following for her educational tips on day trading and other short-term market strategies.

It’s a long way from where Huang started, 10 years ago, when she worked in the film and television industry and day trading was just a way to fill free time and earn extra income.

 Huang learned how to day trade by watching YouTube videos and taking online courses. She loved the idea of day-trading stocks from her home with a schedule that fit her lifestyle. During the first two years, she had many losing days. 

In one trading session, she lost more than $1,000 after following the advice of a so-called day-trading guru. That’s when Huang realized that trading isn’t about finding the “perfect” system. It’s more about knowing yourself, learning how to make high-probability trades, and following a structured risk-management discipline. 

Now Huang is a day-trading educator, teaching others what she knows. She shares her good and bad trading days with her many followers on YouTube and Instagram, where she talks about trading lessons she’s learned. 

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Huang discussed her early struggles, the stocks and trading strategies she uses, and her recent switch from day trading to swing trading. 

MarketWatch: Why do you call yourself ‘Humbled Trader’? 

Huang: Because I was humbled by the market. As traders, we go through a lot of phases. In the beginning, you really don’t know anything and should anticipate losing money at first. And that’s fine. I started making money in my third year of trading, and that’s when I got a little cocky. I thought I was the best. That’s when I learned that if you don’t follow the rules, and don’t practice good risk management, all it takes is one trade to wipe out your trading account.  

MarketWatch: What trade wiped you out in that third year? 

Huang: I started shorting Snap when it was $9 per share. When it went to $14, it blew me up. Nowadays, there are certain small-cap stocks with a low float at $5 per share that can go to $90 per share. That will definitely blow you up even if you have only 100 shares. 

MarketWatch: What lesson did you learn from this experience? 

Huang: You have to stay humble. You are never bigger than the market. I also traded too big for my account size. If you are a beginner with a $3,000 account, start by risking no more than $10 or $20 in a single trade. Keep trades small because your losses can spiral, especially when you lack experience. I wish I had traded really, really small with 10 or 20 shares rather than 100 or 500 shares. You’re not going to make much money trading 10 shares, but you are not going to blow up, either. That’s the way to go if you want to learn how to trade.

MarketWatch: How did you recover from the Snap disaster? 

Huang: I had some savings outside of my trading account. I also took weekend and overtime contract jobs. I remember taking a three-month break and coming back to try again. This time I traded a lot smaller!  

MarketWatch: Did you ever think about giving up trading? 

Huang: In the first two years, I never had a green month. That’s when it would have been easy to give up. But once I had a small taste of what it’s like to trade and make money on some of my trades, it was very hard to give that up. 

MarketWatch: How do you determine your trading position size?  

Huang: I’m very strategic now about when to increase and decrease size. When I’m going through a red month, like I did in September, I risk less and size down. Hypothetically, if I normally risk $2,000 on a trade, I may only risk $1,000 or even $500. Conversely, if I start having a green week or month, I’ll return to my normal size. I increase size when I’m doing well. 

MarketWatch: How did you learn to be so selective with your trades? 

Huang: I keep a journal and track everything. I found that on the red (i.e., losing) days and months I trade the largest number of transactions and ticker symbols. I realized I should do the opposite and be more selective with my trades. Since making that discovery, I’m not in a hurry to make back everything I lost. I just go back slowly, dip my toes in, and see how the market reacts. 

 MarketWatch: What is your trading style right now? 

Huang: It’s interesting because my trading style has changed. During the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2021, I day-traded every day. At the end of the day, I closed out and wouldn’t hold any overnight positions. It worked very well. But last year and this year, I’ve transitioned more to swing trading. I may hold overnight for two or three days. For example, Nvidia keeps on trending so I might hold it a month. If I see a trend continuing, I’ll keep holding for a couple of weeks or a month. 

MarketWatch: Why have you changed trading strategies? 

Huang: I’m at a stage where I want a little less stress. Day trading is very stressful. You come in every day starting from zero and you’re trying to find the best opportunities each day. It’s much more stressful than swing trading, when I begin the day with good positions and I’m riding a trend. Also, the market this year has been a lot trickier for day trading. There’s a lot of choppiness as we go into the U.S. election. Although it’s hard for day trading, it’s better for swing trading because the overall direction has been up. 

MarketWatch: What market indicators do you use? 

Huang: I use the eight-, 20-, and 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). If a stock is a loser, I cut it within the first week. When it’s a winner, I let it trail. If a stock I have conviction about breaks below the eight-day moving average, that’s fine. But if it breaks below the 20-day, I’ll use a stop-loss to get out and take my entire profit. A lot depends on how volatile a stock is. 

MarketWatch: Any other indicators that are important to your strategy?

Huang: For swing trading, I only use moving averages, and I look at volume. I use VWAP (volume-weighted average price) only for day trading. I mostly use those two. In the long run, it doesn’t matter which indicator you use as long as you find one that allows you to be disciplined and not take a profit too soon. To be profitable, your winners need to be exponentially bigger than your losers. That’s how you stay in the game. 

MarketWatch: What are the three biggest mistakes that traders make? 

Huang: Number one is they risk too much, especially in the beginning. The second mistake is they hold a losing position for too long. They keep thinking it will come back. Or if short, they think it will fall. That’s what happened to me in the Snap trade. It was a day trade, but because I was losing, I turned it into a swing trade. Big mistake. The third mistake is they sell their winners too early. 

MarketWatch: What’s the best trading advice you ever received? 

Huang: The best tip I have for beginners is to go long on the green days and go short on the red days. It’s the simplest thing because stocks tend to trend, especially larger-cap stocks. Obviously, you have to know how to buy the dip but in the bigger picture, on green days stocks tend to keep trending higher and on red days prices tend to go lower. It sounds very basic, but understanding that helped me a lot. 

MarketWatch: How do you prepare for the market day? 

Huang: I start the day scanning sectors and stocks. In the premarket, I can see how the market is shaping up from how many stocks are gapping up or down in the premarket, and which sectors are gapping up or down. I look at sectors, then I look at individual stocks and any news associated with them. If there are no gapping stocks, I know it will be a very boring day. I wouldn’t be day trading on these days. 

MarketWatch: How do you take advantage of market volatility? 

Shay: A lot of times when many stocks gap down, traders can take advantage of market fear. For example, in early August we had two or three days with a huge gap down in the S&P 500. Those are the days that experienced traders can go long when stocks begin to bounce aggressively. 

MarketWatch: What have you found is the real secret to successful trading? 

Shay: It’s going to sound like a cliché but trading is mostly about understanding yourself and your triggers. What triggers me is when I sell a stock and then see it go higher. You have to be very good at self-reflection. Trading is not just you against the market. It’s also you against yourself. 

LINK TO ORIGINAL ARTICLE: https://rebrand.ly/70280cs

“Dr. Doom” will see you now. 

Investment manager Marc Faber, a.k.a. “Dr. Doom,” earned that moniker after advising his clients to get out of the stock market before the October 1987 crash.  

Faber, publisher of the investment newsletter “The Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report,” doesn’t foresee an imminent market crash now, but is wary of the U.S. stock market and continues to be concerned about stock valuations. Says Faber: “The market has been driven higher by a handful of stocks,” that is, “any stock that has anything to do with artificial intelligence.

These stocks, Faber notes, are “grossly overvalued.”

After 50 years of investing and trading experience, Faber has learned many important lessons. No. 1: Respect the power and unpredictability of the stock market, if only to avoid being caught by surprise when the market makes extreme moves. 

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Faber talked about his view of both the stock- and housing markets, strategies investors should use to protect a portfolio, how interest rates could reach unsustainable levels, and the disastrous effects of still-high inflation. 

MarketWatch: What’s your view of the U.S. stock market right now? 

Faber: I am relatively negative about the U.S. market. Most stocks haven’t done well. However, the market has been driven higher by a handful of stocks — semiconductors and anything to do with high-tech, especially with artificial intelligence. In my view, these stocks are grossly overvalued and have substantial downside. When there is a change in leadership, these stocks will go down as the market moves away from these favorite stocks to more value-oriented stocks. 

MarketWatch: What are the red flags you’re seeing in stock prices?

Faber: First, if you look at valuations by historical standards, they’re very high, especially the favorites I just mentioned. Second, the profit margins of American companies will come down because of inflationary pressures, and also because of weak demand. The problem in America with many sectors is affordability, especially in the housing industry. Housing affordability in the U.S. is at its lowest level ever. That reduces the demand, which reduces earnings potential. 

MarketWatch: What can the U.S. government do to boost economic demand?  

Faber: The question is how can you operate on the economy without putting the patient into the hospital? It will be very unpleasant for two, three or four years. But what must be done — and will be done eventually — is to bring fiscal deficits down. 

There are three choices. First, politicians could increase taxes. However, if politicians go to American voters and tell them they must increase taxes, they will not get elected. Second, politicians could cut government spending. But no one will elect them if they cut police, fire, and army veteran pensions, or cut Social Security contributions for those over 65. The third option, which is what every government has embarked upon, is inflation. 

The government prints money and the inflation rate goes up. But inflation rises because of deficits and money printing. In other words, it’s a tax. The bad aspect of inflation is that it touches different sectors of society differently. For example, I have cash, stocks, bonds, commodities and no debt. I love inflation because the value of my assets goes up. 

But as a social observer, historian and economist, I know it’s a disastrous policy with a disastrous outcome. The poor people get hurt the most during inflationary times because they have no assets. That’s why if you look at every inflationary period in history, wealth inequality increased dramatically. 

MarketWatch: How can investors protect their money in this environment?

Faber: People should reverse their thinking and start to contemplate the view that instead of everything going up, think what would happen if everything that you own goes down in value. I want to stress that it’s not a disaster if everything comes down and you have no debts. The problem arises for people who have a lot of debts, because debts don’t come down. 

If I were an investor, given the uncertainty we have in the world, I would own some precious metals. I’m not saying the precious-metals market will go up tomorrow. But when I look at the debt levels in America — the unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government and those of pension funds, in my view — the only way out is to print money. There is no other option. That’s what governments have always done. 

MarketWatch: Are you shorting the U.S. market?  

Faber: I used to be one of the larger short sellers. But during the technology boom in 1999 and 2000, I lost a lot of money. I decided that shorting stocks in a money-printing environment is a dangerous proposition. Based on fundamentals, a stock should go down, but because of monetary injection, the stock goes up. 

MarketWatch: What is one of the most important lessons you’ve learned about the stock market? 

Faber: I have a very good lesson that everyone should remember: The market is unpredictable. On any trading day, we don’t know how the market will close. And in six months, where will the market be? Do you know? I don’t know. That’s why most individual stock investors and traders will lose money.  

MarketWatch: Are you seeing different conditions in stock markets outside the U.S.? 

Faber: Actually, the whole world has been gambling on the “Magnificent Seven” stocks — especially Nvidia 

Michael Sincere (michaelsincere.com) is the author of “Understanding Options,” “Understanding Stocks,” and the forthcoming “Help Your Child Build Wealth” (Wiley, 2024).

LINK TO ARTICLE: https://bit.ly/3ySQGZ9

"Buffett sold half of his Apple position. Isn’t that market timing?" Stock trader Tom Basso reveals what it takes to win.

Tom Basso, a hedge-fund manager and veteran stock trader, was dubbed ”Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s classic 1992 book, “New Market Wizards.” 

Here’s how Schwager described Basso more than 30 years ago: “When I first met Basso, I was immediately struck by his incredible ease about trading. He has learned to accept losses in trading not only in an intellectual sense but on an emotional level as well. Moreover, his feelings of exuberance about trading (or, for that matter, about life) bubble right out of him. Basso has managed to be a profitable trader while apparently maintaining complete peace of mind and experiencing great joy.”

After speaking with Basso about the current U.S. stock market environment, it’s clear he hasn’t changed. For him, the headwind for stocks and the challenge for traders and investors now — recession fears, interest rates, geopolitical risk — is just another chapter in a long-running story. 

Basso should know. With 50 years of stock trading under his belt, he has experienced every type of market boom and bust, including the October 1987 U.S. market crash. If you want to know how he usually responds to these ups and downs, it’s spelled out in the educational website for traders he runs: enjoytheride.world.

In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Basso talked about trading stocks, sticking to a plan, and how not losing can be more important than winning. 

MarketWatch: “Enjoy the ride, world.” Your trading philosophy sounds like a solution to any challenge, but it’s easier said than done. What advice do you have for stock traders now? 

Basso: You must have a plan. Many new traders, especially those who got their stimulus checks from COVID and were stuck at home because of the lockdowns, decided to take up trading. Many have never seen a disastrous bear market. Most have never seen anything except above-average historical returns on their portfolio. They haven’t been tested very much to the downside. I have been warning everyone to create a plan and then execute it. Otherwise, you will put yourself in harm’s way. 

MarketWatch: What trading plan is best under current market conditions?

Basso: You must have indicators in place that measure where the stock indices are moving. If you are a trend follower, perhaps you notice the market is in a down move. You could sell out of your stocks or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and move to cash. Other trend followers might get signals to go short. It’s different for different people. Although I use short strategies, some people are restricted from using that strategy. If you’re in cash right now, one plan is to watch until your indicators move to the positive side. Then jump in with full force. 

MarketWatch: Which market indicators get your respect? 

Basso: I follow three indicators that I use in conjunction with each other because each one measures a different form of what I call noise. 

The first one is Donchian Channels, (a technical indicator used to identify bullish and bearish extremes over a period of time). The second indicator is the Keltner Channel, which is basically an exponential moving average that I use over different time periods. The third indicator I use is Bollinger Bands, which uses standard deviation to measure volatility. 

I run all three indicators simultaneously and put stops at the closest point to where the market is. I have plans for the market going sideways, down, or up. This all happens automatically. I could be out playing golf, so I don’t get too stressed about my trades. That’s why [“New Market Wizards” author] Jack Schwager called me “Mr. Serenity.” I do my market work inside of an hour. I’m not sitting in front of a computer screen all day. 

MarketWatch: What does your trading plan look like in action? 

Basso: I don’t know what the market will do. All I know is that if it’s a down move, I act. I already have the plan in place. I have my stops in place. I have the position sized properly for the amount of volatility and the size of my account. I’m neither over-committed or under-committed. I’ll go short, and if the market breaks through the top side, I will get rid of my short positions and go long.

MarketWatch: That sounds like market timing.

Basso: People are fond of saying that you shouldn’t time the market because you can’t afford to miss the 10 best days. I tell them to see what happens when you miss the 10 worst days. Warren Buffett recently sold half of his Apple position. Isn’t that market timing? Buffett has bought and sold lots of companies over the years. To me, everyone is a trader. It’s just a matter of your time frame and what indicators you are using. They are just labels. I don’t worry too much about them. I just measure the market and go with the flow. 

MarketWatch: Many investors rush to buy stocks when the market dips. Is that smart or a recipe for disappointment? 

Basso: If you’re buying the dip when the market is down by 10% or 15%, and the market goes down 50% during a bear market, you’ll be sitting for a long time trying to make back your losses. Every monthly statement that comes in, and every time you look at your account value, will be like a little knife twist in your back. You’re not going to be a happy camper. 

My attitude is to let the market fall to wherever it wants to fall. Sooner or later, buyers will come in, the market will stabilize, turn around and break through to the upside. 

MarketWatch: What are the biggest mistakes traders make? 

Basso: First, they don’t have the right amount of capital. I would encourage traders to save their money and get a second job, then build up a good-sized account so they can diversify and run some sensible strategies. Second, they must size their positions properly. Position sizing affects your results over the long run more than your buy- or sell position. 

MarketWatch: What’s the maximum amount you risk on each trade? 

Basso: I risk no more than 0.5% of my equity on each trade. I learned that from Larry Hite, who was interviewed by Jack Schwager in the first “Market Wizards” book. Don’t lose more than a small percentage on each trade. I cap the risk percent of my equity exactly the same for each trade. I’ve been doing that for over 40 years. Successful traders know how to size their positions. I wrote a book on it and provided the math. A lot of people say they will buy 100 shares of a stock because it’s a nice round number. But 100 shares of Amazon.com is a lot different than 100 shares of a utility company. A lot of new traders hear someone mention X, Y or Z stock, look at a chart, and buy 100 shares without knowing how to size their position, or have a strategy to buy or sell. They are just setting themselves up for failure and a lot of stress. 

LINK TO ARTICLE: https://bit.ly/4f4pGX3

 Opinion: Global stock investor Jim Rogers: ‘I’m waiting for something to go wrong.’

‘Probably by the end of this year or next year, the bear market will have resumed in the U.S.,’ Quantum Fund co-founder says

Jim Rogers, international investor, author and financial commentator, describes the current U.S. stock market environment as showing all the signs of an aging bull, not a raging one.

Rogers has seen this before. In fact, he’s seen and invested in all types of markets over a career spanning 60 years. Rogers rose to fame in the 1970s as the co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, which gained 4,200% over the next 10 years while the S&P 500 rose about 50%. 

In a recent interview from Singapore, his base since 2007, Rogers revealed his reasons why the U.S. bull market for stocks may be nearing an end, why bear markets are actually healthy for the stock market, and what you can do now both to protect your portfolio and position it for profits.

MarketWatch: What are you doing with your money with regard to U.S. stocks right now? 

Rogers: I have a lot of cash. I’m waiting for something to go wrong, but I am not selling short at the moment. I don’t call that bearish. I am neutral.  

MarketWatch: What could go wrong? 

Rogers: If you look at the U.S. market, a lot of new investors are coming in and talking about how easy it is to make money in the stock market. You see some stocks that go up every day, but fewer and fewer stocks are going up. Some are going up a lot, but most are not. You see market breadth declining. These are the things that happen before the end of bull markets. Again, I’m not selling short yet —- but these are the signs that develop when a bull market is coming to an end. 

MarketWatch: Do you expect the U.S. stock market to crash? 

Rogers: First, I differentiate between a crash and a bear market. The world has always had bear markets and will again. But bear markets often end in a crash. I certainly anticipate a bear market. The next bear market has to be very bad because debt has skyrocketed everywhere including in the U.S. Pick a country, including countries that didn’t have debt before such as Germany and Japan. Everyone has very, very high debt. So the next bear market has to be bad, and bear markets end in a selling climax, or a crash as you put it. I hope we live long enough to see many bear markets. 

MarketWatch: Why do you want to see many bear markets? 

Rogers: They clean out the system, which nobody likes because it costs them money. But economic recessions or bear markets clean out excesses. That’s the way the system has always worked. Some people get overconfident or overextended and along comes a bear market or recession and cleans out the system. Cleaning out the excesses has always been good for the system — unless you’re the one getting cleaned out. 

MarketWatch: What is your forecast for U.S. stocks over the next few months? 

Rogers: Some people are good at market timing, but I am not one of those people. I am not a good short-term trader. But what I suspect is that probably by the end of this year or next year, the bear market will have resumed in the U.S. It’s already the longest period in American history without a bear market. We’re overdue. 

MarketWatch: How should people protect their investments? 

Rogers: The only way to protect yourself is to invest in what you know about. Everyone knows a lot about something, and that’s where you should focus. If I said you could only have 25 investments in your entire life, you would be very careful, and be a good investor. Many people might say that is boring. If you want to be a good investor, be boring. Stay with what you know. And don’t go down to the bar on Saturday night and tell everyone about the latest hot stock. 

We’ve had the longest bull market in American history. Politicians in Washington say, ‘Don’t worry, we’ve solved the problem.’ But I know that’s a lie. I know that’s wrong. I’m just saying be careful because gigantic debts are building up. If you can add or subtract, you know there is no way America can solve its debt problem. It’s a good time to be an old American, but not a good time to be a young American. I have two daughters, and the problems they will face in their lifetime will be enormous. 

MarketWatch: What do you say to your daughters about how they should invest for their future? 

Rogers: It’s hard to teach young people because they know it all (laughter). I certainly show them history. In 1924, the U.K. was the richest, most powerful country in the world. There was no No. 2. Fifty years later, the U.K. was bankrupt. They couldn’t pay their bills. This happened within 50 years — going from No. 1 to bankrupt. People say this cannot happen to America. Well, it’s happened often in world history, so be very careful, and be worried. Be aware of what has happened in the past, because it will happen again. 

MarketWatch Link: https://on.mktw.net/3k4CQf3

Many of us have taken steps to prevent scams such as refusing to send money to online strangers, not clicking on links from anonymous sources, and installing a VPN to hide our IP addresses. But how do you protect yourself against unethical family members whose goal is to cheat you out of money? 

I have a close friend, Alan (not his real name) who was scammed out of most of his inheritance by his greedy brother and corrupt sister-in-law. He learned the hard way that some siblings betray family members, even their own mother, just to get a bigger payout for themselves. 

Based on interviews with Alan and my own personal experience, I created a list of red flags that may help you successfully survive family financial transactions: inheritances; insurance payouts; real estate deals, loans and stock sales are fraught with opportunities for scammers, even among family members. 

1. Pressure tactics

Let’s say a sibling, with help from their lawyer, has documents for your signature. Signing documents, especially if the relative is the executor of an estate, is expected. Do not get pressured or bullied into signing documents on the spot. 

To protect your interests, take the documents with you and for your own lawyer to review. Unethical relatives can be stopped early when you refuse to sign anything without a thorough vetting. Many future financial problems could be averted if people would just read the document before signing. 

2. Psychological clues 

Be on the lookout for relatives (or anyone else) seeking a psychological advantage. Be wary if someone appears nervous when presenting you with a contract to sign, or a family member becomes secretive and vague, and unwilling to answer direct questions. An honest person will reveal everything to all family members. Dishonest people keep you in the dark and hide relevant information. If you ask for information, they may promise to “let you know,” but never do, hoping that you will forget. 

Do not ignore psychological clues. The best antidote for dishonesty is truth and full disclosure. Keep all of your family members in the loop, make sure your relative keeps promises, and push for the facts. Dishonest family members will try to distract, deceive, hide, and bully. Do not accept this behavior. Also, never make any side deals with them — you will get the “short end of the stick.”

3. Lawyering up

A common red flag is when a relative “lawyers up.” In Alan’s case, his brother claimed that other family members were stealing from the estate (this lie is a false flag), which was an excuse to “protect” the money. The brother then brought in lawyers and money managers, and directed the inheritance money to himself. Be forewarned, the larger the estate, the more cautious you need to be. 

If your sibling acts suspiciously, overspends (as an executor), or hires a lawyer, it is essential to hire your own lawyer or financial adviser for guidance. It’s likely that your sibling will discourage you from getting help, or even attack you for doing so. Do not back down. Independent counsel is needed to protect yourself and innocent family members. 

Sometimes the family member you least suspect of being unethical is the biggest scammer. In Alan’s case, his sister-in-law may have been the predator, but his greedy brother went along with the schemes, including pocketing all of the real estate profits. 

4. Unusual financial actions

Be alert to unusual or impulsive financial actions. For example, a relative may abruptly put a wealthy elderly family member into a nursing home (claiming “they will love it there”), transfer a large sum out of the estate (this may be impossible to discover before it’s too late), or initiates a rushed property sale. These are all serious red flags. 

5. Changing the will 

Extremely dishonest family members will attempt to influence the contents of the will. They often get away with this by preventing the elderly relative from communicating with others. For example, I was involved with a family whose nephew moved his sick aunt into a nursing home, cut her off from speaking to her family, and secretly had her sign documents making him the executor and sole beneficiary. After her funeral, other relatives discovered they were left with nothing. 

If an elderly family member stops communicating with you, find out what is going on before it’s too late. Be sure to keep all family members informed.

Get involved in your family’s financial affairs and don’t be left in the dark. 

6. ‘I don’t care’

Some deceitful family members will act as if they don’t care about the money, or that they don’t need it (a red herring). This lie is created to avoid suspicion. In reality, this individual may secretly be planning to take possession of as much of the family money as possible. To prevent this, get involved in your family’s financial affairs and don’t be left in the dark. This will help avoid unnecessary future surprises. 

Don’t be a victim of family fraud

When it comes to large family fortunes especially, be prepared for anything. It’s not enough to identify red flags: Have the courage to protect what is rightfully yours so you don’t become a victim. For example, do not be surprised if unethical family members fight back with bullying tactics and threats — a reason why you must hire independent legal and financial professionals. 

Money can change people. Previously honest family members may succumb to the temptation to grab the bulk of the family fortune. For the sake of your financial future and that of other family members, don’t allow these fraudsters to get away with a “crime of opportunity.” Nip it in the bud by being on guard, verifying all transactions, and most importantly, not signing anything unless reviewed by a lawyer.  

Obviously, once these schemes are uncovered, family relationships will never be the same.

Link: https://on.mktw.net/3GZCcac

As a guest speaker at colleges and high schools, I discovered that most teenagers are clueless about investing. They get an “A” for knowing how to spend money, and many work hard for income, but few know how or why they should invest in stocks, mutual funds, or index funds. Typically, most teenagers haven’t thought about building wealth by paying themselves first.

Sometimes the biggest obstacle to making money is our perception. We believe investing is rocket science, or something that only professionals can do. By giving your children the confidence to manage and invest their own money, they can learn to be financially independent with the freedom to do what they want in life. 

Do you want your children to be spenders or investors? In reality, they can be both. Before your children get their first credit card, show them how to make money work for them by investing. 

Here are some actions you can take if you want your children to build wealth:    

1. Open a joint brokerage account: Stick with self-directed brokerage firms such as TD Ameritrade, Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab, and eTrade Financial  (to name a few). If your children do not know what a brokerage firm is, use this analogy: a brokerage firm is like a shopping mall but instead of spending money on clothing or electronics, you’re buying different investments that can make money. 

2. Open a UGMA (Uniform Gift to Minors Act) account: A UGMA is a custodian account used to hold and protect assets for minors until they reach legal age. The account can be opened at most brokerage firms with no minimum amount. Talk to the representatives for details in opening a UGMA in your state. 

3. Consider potential tax consequences: Talk to a tax professional or the brokerage firm representatives before you open an account. When your child reaches legal age, the custodian (you) must hand over the assets to your child. 

4. Start with an index fund:  The first investment your teenager should make is in a low-cost index fund such as a S&P 500 ETF (exchange-traded fund) that tracks the S&P 500 your brokerage firm will have a list of the most popular). The S&P 500 Index contains a group of 500 large U.S. companies, so when you buy the S&P 500 Index, you are buying a small piece of every company in the index. 

5. Have a routine: The goal in opening the account is to get your child into the routine of investing a certain amount of money into the fund every month (you could also set up an automatic payment plan). If needed, use a portion of his or her allowance to invest in the fund. Here’s a hint: Match by 50% any money your child invests. (If your child invests $100, add an additional $50, etc.). Look for reasons (like a birthday) to add money to the fund. 

6. Think outside the box:  The idea is to get children to think differently about how to manage money. By opening a brokerage account, you can show your children the value of routinely paying themselves the first of each month (in contrast to making a credit card payment). 

7. Dig into the details: Show your child how to read the brokerage statement (either online or by mail), and how to follow the index fund prices (which are posted online at dozens of websites including here). Your children will see how easy it is to make (or lose) money every day without much effort, or having to be involved with the financial industry. 

Here are some other ideas to consider: 

1. Teach patience: Regular, monthly allocations can help your child learn how to be a disciplined and patient investor, attributes they will need as they get older. With the power to manage their own money, they won’t need to depend on others to invest for them. 

2. Teach the difference between investing and speculation: Some teenagers will be so fascinated by the market they may be interested in speculating in individual stocks, or in the latest investment fad. That is fine, but keep the good old reliable index fund separate from any speculative investments.  

3. Teach market realities: As the index fund appreciates, your children may experience the thrill of making money in a bull market, or the agony of losses during a correction or bear market. The odds are good that over their lifetime, the account will grow in value (although there are no guarantees). The secret is to keep adding to the account and letting it grow on its own.  

In addition, help your child become financially literate without overwhelming them with financial terms. They may have questions about how money grows in value (compound interest), why they should put a certain amount in the account every month (dollar-cost averaging), why the index fund goes up or down (profitable companies within the fund go up in price, or vice versa), or if they can invest in something else (diversification). I suggest not teaching these concepts unless they ask. 

After your child has learned how to be an index investor (it can take years), they may want to select various mutual funds, or buy individual stocks. For now, however, teach your children to follow the market rather than trying to pick winning or losing stocks. 

After the investment account gets even larger, it will be hard for most people to resist withdrawing money (unless for a good reason such as college or their first house). But if your children can make investing a lifelong habit, starting as early as possible, they can focus on accumulating wealth rather than only spending. Teaching your children how to invest is one of the most important gifts they will receive, and the time to start is right now. 

Link: http://bit.ly/3JB6jrf

If you’re reading this, I assume you know cryptocurrency basics — for example, that crypto is digital or electronic money not backed by a government or bank. To protect your account, you probably know to store crypto in a digital wallet, preferably offline on a computer, thumb drive, or mobile device. And you should know that crypto currencies are extremely volatile, highly risky and easy to manipulate.

If you still want to trade crypto, let’s discuss security. First, open an account with a trading platform you can trust such as Coinbase or Robinhood. Yes, there are other platforms but you have to start somewhere. These two well-known, reliable providers will do the job until you can separate the good from the bad. 

By the way, absolutely avoid fancy online brokerage firms or crypto exchanges that you’ve never heard about. Many are scam sites designed to exploit your inexperience. Please do basic research and never give your money to unknown companies. Here’s an idea: Call or email the brokerage before transferring your money and determine its level of service. Better yet, see if the company even exists. 

Second, although there are thousands of cryptocurrencies (some real, some fake), stick with the most popular and most liquid crypto in the world: bitcoin. After you gain more experience, feel free to trade other cryptos (after bitcoin, Ethereum is the second-largest). 

Now let’s talk about trading. The first question most beginners want to know is, “Can I make money trading crypto?” The answer is yes, but it takes skill, discipline, and due diligence. Crypto is still in its early stages and it could take decades for it to be accepted and backed by a government or institution (if ever). Until then, buyer beware. 

The worst part is that the crypto universe is populated with dark money, manipulators and pump-and-dump manipulators who give misleading advice on social media, lure you into buying their bogus currencies or try to convince you to join their phony crypto exchanges. Right now, crypto is pure speculation, but as long as you do your research you should be able to avoid scams. 

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Since you’re now aware of some of the risks, here are the top 10 rules that every beginner crypto trader should remember and obey: 

1. Scale into a trade rather than plunking down large sums of money: If you’re new to trading cryptos, it’s a mistake to put large sums of money into bitcoin (or other cryptos) all at once. Because crypto is so volatile, instead of buying $1,000 in bitcoin, for example, start with $200, and if it’s moving in the right direction (up), add another $200. Keep adding until your position size is fully funded. 

2. Buy and sell at extremes: Whenever you trade a volatile financial product such as crypto, you must routinely take profits. If your gains are extreme, sell half or all, but take something off the table. Resist the urge to be greedy when trading crypto (i.e. Fear of Missing Out or “FOMO”) or you risk holding until you lose most or all of your money.

3. Trade small: At first, aim for small gains. Sure, some people have made millions of dollars trading bitcoin, but like lottery winners, there are many more who have lost all or a good portion or all their money. 

4. Never buy on margin: When you go on margin, you borrow money from the brokerage to increase the amount you can buy. This is leverage, and it’s a double-edged sword. If you’re right, you can make substantial profits. If wrong, you may owe more than you invested. Wise traders manage risk, and that means not borrowing money to buy crypto. (You’ll know what I mean after you get your first margin call.) 

5. Keep mental stop-losses: It’s always wise to have stop losses, but because cryptos move so quickly, “hard” stop losses are often ineffective (one reason many platforms won’t let you use hard stops for cryptos). Instead, use “mental” stops and have the discipline to obey them. An alternative method is a “time stop,” i.e. tell yourself you will sell the position by a certain day, Friday, for example. This is an effective way of forcing yourself to lock in winners and cut losers.  

6. Don’t hold losing positions: If a trade is going against you, consider selling all or half — don’t let small losers turn into big ones. It’s true that those who sold bitcoin at $20,000 were shocked when it skyrocketed towards $60,000. Rule No. 7 shows you how to handle that.

7. Have a trading plan: It’s important to have a trading plan, especially for cryptos. Have a plan that helps you decide when to buy or sell. Follow the plan and obey your rules.  

8. Use technical analysis: Technical analysis gives you clues when to enter or exit a position. For beginners, the best two indicators are moving averages and RSI (Relative Strength Indicator). They are easy to grasp and provide good signals.  

As of June 30, 2021, bitcoin was well-below its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart. (Bitcoin needs to rise to its 200-day MA of $43,794 to climb out of the basement.) On the weekly chart, although consolidating, bitcoin is still slightly above its 50-day moving average. 

RSI is 44.72 for bitcoin on the weekly chart. Although oversold, it’s not at extreme levels yet. At 30 or lower, it’s extremely oversold, but don’t use RSI to time when to enter. 

9. Diversify: Never put everything you own into one financial product. Buy crypto but spread your money across non-crypto investments. If that isn’t possible, make small purchases until you gain more experience and knowledge. 

10. Practice with a simulated account before buying: If it is available, practice in a simulated or paper money account before trading with real money. If you don’t have access to a test account, follow Rule No. 3. 

Link: http://bit.ly/3JxvcUM

As a freelance writer and author, I’ve been fortunate to have interviewed many stock-market gurus over the years. One of the most memorable was with the legendary Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity Investments mutual fund manager. Years ago for an article, I spoke to him about one of his favorite subjects: Helping young people learn to invest. 

Do your research

Lynch popularized the idea to invest in what you know — meaning to own shares of the companies that you are familiar with. He wrote three bestselling books on his ideas, including actually going in person to observe what people were buying first-hand. 

Lynch was famous for visiting the companies that he wanted to buy stock in. For example, before buying shares in an automobile stock, Lynch would go to the dealer showroom, converse with the salespeople, and check out the inventory. 

His advice, while sounding simplistic, is actually brilliant. After all, most people spend more time and effort researching buying a new refrigerator than a stock. I made that mistake when I first starting investing, sinking $50,000 into shares of a Texas cell phone company that I had never even heard about. Why? Because an acquaintance who knew more than I did about the stock market said I should. “You can double your money,” he promised. Famous last words.  

Instead of doubling my money, I lost half of it within months when the company nearly went bankrupt after some questionable accounting maneuvers. It was also the first and last time I ever bought stocks on margin. 

Using margin, the broker allowed me to use my original $25,000 to buy another $25,000 worth of stock (2-1 margin). When the stock plunged, I not only lost money on my original investment, I also owed the brokerage for the money I borrowed. Mismanaging margin is one of the ways that many investors get into trouble when their stocks go against them. 

Study balance sheets and stock charts 

Had I followed Lynch’s advice and done some basic research, I would have discovered that the so-called cell phone company was a scam. It was being promoted by fake press releases and inflated posts on social media. 

In hindsight, I could have flown to Texas and visited the company. I would have discovered that it had only two employees. It would have been a lot cheaper to fly there than lose $25,000. I also could have studied the company’s balance sheet, looked at a stock chart, and studied its earnings reports. It sounds like common sense, but think of how many people buy stocks every day without doing the most basic research, what is referred to as exercising “due diligence.” Others call it “doing your homework.” 

How Lynch handled bear markets

From my interview with Lynch, I learned that he doesn’t make predictions. “I have no idea what the market will do over the next one or two years,” he told me. “What I do know is that if interest rates go up, inflation will go up and in the near term the stock market will go down. I also know that once every 18 months the market has a decline of 10%. These are called corrections. We could easily have a 10% correction. Perhaps one out of three of these corrections turns into a 20% to 25 % correction. These are called bear markets.”

Lynch took market corrections in stride, including bear markets. Although he disliked bear markets since he was a long-only manager and hated losing money when one occurred, he didn’t panic. “If you understand what companies you own and who their competitors are,” Lynch said, “you’re in good shape. You don’t panic if the market goes down and the stock goes down. If you don’t understand what you own and don’t understand what a company does and it falls by half, what should you do? If you haven’t done your research, you might as well call a psychic hotline for investment advice.” 

I learned from Lynch that although bear markets are inevitable, they cannot be predicted. That is why before one occurs, you must evaluate what stocks or funds you own. If you are confident about your investments, you won’t get shaken out.

For me, it means reducing some of my positions, especially given the U.S. market’s current technical indicators. Although the market has been on a 12-year bull run, it is still vulnerable to a steep correction, or worse, a bear market. That is why it’s more important than ever to do the basic research (i.e. study balance sheets and stock charts). 

Bottom line: If you are a long-term investor, Lynch’s methods and ideas are excellent. If there is a bear-market hiccup, use the opportunity to buy shares of stock or indexes that you have researched.