Interview with Popular Trader Steve Burns

I interviewed social media star Steve Burns for my latest MarketWatch column. As you will find out, he is short-term bearish but long-term bullish. Read the article below to find out what he wants to buy when the selloff ends.

Link to original article: MarketWatch article

One truth of stock investing is that it’s better to be early than broke. 

Veteran stock trader Steve Burns learned this lesson the hard way. Burns is a popular figure on social media, where he addresses experienced and novice traders alike to help them steer clear of the stock market’s cliffs. 

In a MarketWatch interview last December, Burns declared that U.S. stocks were in the “greatest bubble in the history of civilization.” He predicted that the U.S. market would soon suffer a correction — and he’s been spot-on so far. 

With the Trump administration’s trade tariffs tanking stock markets in the U.S. and worldwide, Burns said he’s moved his portfolio completely to cash, at least for the time being. In this interview, which was conducted last week as the global market selloff accelerated, Burns said he’s been surprised by the speed and ferociousness of the market’s slide, and speculates about how Trump’s tariffs could impact stocks this year. (This interview has been edited for length and clarity.)

MarketWatch: Four months ago, you were bearish about the U.S. stock market. With the market selling off, do you think we’re close to a bottom? 

Burns: In the short-term, I am very bearish. This is a historical crash and a 50% correction is probable over the next nine months to a year.

But I’m long-term bullish. At some point, this is going to work out, but right now the market is trying to reprice every company on an individual basis based on their risk exposure to tariffs. Oil is signaling a huge recession even though OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reduced its crude oil production. 

MW: How has this tariff-induced selloff affected your portfolio?

Burns: On April 3, I moved to cash. I dipped into small-caps that morning but got stopped out. I went to cash because this looks like a macro tariff-tantrum crash that has very little to do with technical analysis. Everything looked great from a technical standpoint before the tariffs, but now the technicals are broken. Everything relies on how quickly the Trump administration can come to trade agreements, especially with China. If not, there could be a depression, especially in other countries. 

MW: Besides tariffs, what else is a catalyst for this selloff? You said technical indicators had been strong. 

Burns: The AI bubble popped with DeepSeek (a Chinese AI app founded in 2023 that competes with ChatGPT). I don’t know if we’ll get back to the highs in the AI-sector stocks, but I think that Nvidia is still a good long-term play because they are the supplier of the chips. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon.com, and Apple all got popped when people realized the pricing was not equivalent to the value of their business models. 

MW: Let’s talk about the U.S. economy. There’s concern that the U.S. will experience a bout of stagflation — slower growth and higher inflation. The housing market is frozen as buyers balk at high mortgage rates. Trump has been trying to get the U.S. Federal Reserve to bring down interest rates. What will it take to lower prices? 

Burns: To lower inflation and bring mortgage yields down, the stock market would have to crash. It looks like the Trump administration is trying to cause a bear market in equities so they can get more people to buy bonds and drive mortgage yields down. It seems like their top goal is getting inflation down and they will do whatever it takes to do that.

MW: The stock market is clearly showing it disapproves. 

Burns: They don’t care. It’s almost like they want to cause the stock market to go down and cause bond yields to go up, which will force the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates because the economy is so bad. I’m speculating, but I think Trump would rather have the stock market crash now so he can go into the 2026 midterm elections with the stock market at all-time highs. 

MW: What will it take for the Trump administration to succeed? 

Burns: That pathway will be very hard with the political pressures, especially if the U.S. goes into a deeper recession and doesn’t come out by the midterms. Trump could buckle if the economy is in a shambles by the midterms. He has a year and nine months to rebuild a long-term supply chain. 

MW: What would cause you to move out of your cash position? 

Burns: I’m looking for an established base built on a bottom. The first indicator I look for is a price above the 200-day moving average. What could stop the selloff is if the U.S. can get a deal with China. We could have a monstrous rally — but China looks like it’s doubling down. 

MW: What would you consider buying once the market recovers?   

Burns: I’d consider Alphabet and Block. Many people aren’t buying Alphabet’s YouTube is overtaking Disney and Hulu combined. YouTube is the No. 1-watched media site now. Alphabet’s stock, however, has been driven down by the government’s push to break it up. Block, which used to be Square, is a great financial play in fintech (financial technology). It’s a future national cash register — a new way of connecting monetary payments. 

MW: What should traders and investors do to reduce risk? 

Burns: It’s not a great time to take huge positions. It’s a good time to test the waters to see how the tariffs will play out over the next few weeks. That means having smaller position sizes. It’s very dangerous to short after the market has already dropped into a correction. 

MW: What would you tell buy-and-hold investors right now? 

Burns: Buy-and-hold now is similar to buying and holding in 2000 or 2007, which I lived through. That got me away from buy-and-hold. If you’re in your 20s and have a 20-year time horizon, buy-and-hold makes sense. But not if you’re older. I can’t imagine putting all my capital into buying and holding right now with the current valuations. The odds are good that there will be a 50% correction once every 15 years. 

Michael Sincere is the author, most recently, of “Help Your Child Build Wealth: A Parent’s Guide to Teaching Children To Be Successful Investors,” and “Mr. Sincere Teaches You How to Sell Covered Calls.”